US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI5382

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 NEW DELHI 005382 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR S/CT 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/11/2015 
TAGS: PTER, PGOV, PREL, SCUL, ASEC, IN, PK, Counter-Terrorism 
SUBJECT: DELHI WORRIED ABOUT SPIKE IN TERRORISM, THREATS, 
AND CHATTER FROM PAKISTAN 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 5226 
     B. CHENNAI 1582 
     C. NEW DELHI 5165 
     D. NEW DELHI 4689 
     E. NEW DELHI 4449 
 
Classified By: Charge Bob Blake, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Indian concerns over possible spectacular 
terrorist incidents are escalating, based on the recent 
London and Ayodhya attacks, widespread speculation on what 
high-profile target might be next, and a significant uptick 
in terrorism reporting in the Indian media, most of which 
points to Pakistan.  Although we are not aware of any 
specific credible evidence pointing to a pending terror 
attack in New Delhi, there is a palpable feeling here that 
India may face more attacks of terrorism, coupled with 
frustration over cross-border terrorism activity in Pakistan. 
 Reported infiltration numbers are rising dramatically -- the 
Indian Army on July 12 intercepted the largest group of 
infiltrators it has seen since the start of Indo-Pak 
rapprochement -- and terrorists are exploiting multiple 
routes to enter India.  Recent media reports claim that the 
number of attacks in Delhi is above last year's and predicted 
to rise, although the number of successful attacks nationally 
is within normal parameters, according to Indian terrorism 
experts.  The London subway bombings followed by days the 
opening of a large Metro station located in the heart of 
Delhi's commercial area, and has been the focus of inevitable 
speculation that terrorists will attack it. Indians also 
complain that accused Bombay bomber Dawood Ibrahim is openly 
arranging his daughter's Dubai wedding from Pakistan -- 
underlining the point that the Pakistani establishment 
continues to use terror as an instrument of state policy. 
End Summary. 
 
India On Alert 
-------------- 
 
2.  (C) In the wake of the London subway bombings, the 
Ayodhya temple attack, and other recent terrorist incidents, 
the GOI is publicly calling on its police and paramilitary 
forces to bolster security on a nation-wide basis.  Home 
Minister Shivraj Patil on July 12 chaired a senior-level 
security review that brought together NSA MK Narayanan, RAW 
chief PK Tharakan, Intelligence Bureau chief ESL Narasimhan, 
the directors general for military operations and military 
intelligence, and the heads of India's paramilitary forces. 
Consulate Mumbai reports that police no longer permit 
vehicles to park near the city's two major temple complexes. 
The Hanuman Temple in Central Delhi is also under heavier 
guard. 
 
Infiltration On the Rise 
------------------------ 
 
3.  (C) GOI Interlocutor on Kashmir NN Vohra on July 12 told 
us "several thousand" terrorists are planning to cross from 
Pakistan into India using a variety of routes, including J&K, 
Punjab, Rajasthan, Nepal, and Bangladesh, according to Indian 
intercepts of terrorist communications.  Vohra asserted that 
"90% of major terrorist incidents are tied to events" such as 
the PM's trip and the Kashmiri separatists' June visit to 
Pakistan (Ref D).  Also on July 12, Indian troops in J&K 
reportedly engaged some 35 terrorists as they tried to 
infiltrate across the LoC, the largest such encounter since 
the start of Indo-Pak rapprochement.  Against this backdrop, 
Foreign Minister Natwar Singh has been reiterating his 
"offer" to provide Pakistan PM Shaukat Aziz with 
"photographic evidence" of terrorist camps (Ref C).  An RSO 
contact told us that several Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) cells 
that entered India in March remain at large; he predicted 
they would hit soft targets some time this summer. 
 
Terrorism Metrics Yield Complex and Ominous Picture 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
4.  (C) New Delhi-based terrorism expert Ajai Sahni told 
Poloff that the recent spate of attacks does not represent a 
national uptick in terrorist violence, but added that he 
would not be surprised if attacks continue to the point of 
being statistically significant.  "We always have a few major 
attacks outside J&K every year.  Bearing that in mind, the 
situation so far remains consistent with the trend since 
2000," Sahni explained.  According to his research, this 
trend is independent of the state of Indo-Pak relations, 
although he contended that "strategically, Islamabad is 
calling all the shots, in Punjab, in the Northeast, 
throughout the country ... and nothing will change it until 
Musharraf makes a strategic shift in Pakistani support for 
terrorism."  Sahni said that better security in J&K over the 
past year may be pushing terrorists into other regions that 
are "easier to operate in," which could produce a spike in 
attacks outside J&K. 
 
5.  (U) Much of this terrorism is indigenous.  For example, 
in the last week alone: 
 
-- Five Andhra Pradesh state ministers resigned, reportedly 
because of threats from the Communist Party of India 
(Maoist), i.e. Naxalites (Ref B). 
 
-- Naxals in West Bengal shot dead three senior Communist 
Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) members, and killed one 
police officer and injured 16 more in a separate bomb attack. 
 
-- Naga rebels torched at least 17 government buildings in 
Manipur. 
 
6.  (C) Terrorist activity in New Delhi itself has spiked 
over last year, according to published reports.  The May 22 
cinema bombings by Babar Khalsa International (BKI) 
terrorists were the first spectacular attacks in Delhi in 
three years (Ref E).  Police report that 40 terrorists have 
been arrested or killed in Delhi in the first half of 2005, 
compared with seven in 2004, although it is commonly held 
that some of these "encounters" are staged.  Reportedly 
hundreds of police raids have failed to produce LeT's head of 
operations for northern India. 
 
London Bombings Put Delhi Metro on Notice 
----------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) The London transit system terrorist bombings have 
focused New Delhi's attention on its own expanding subway; 
however, Delhi was ramping up security even before the London 
attacks.  RSO police contacts confirmed that the Metro is on 
its highest alert level, and a former Indian Police Service 
officer told Poloff that Metro officials believe a station 
may be attacked in the next few weeks. 
 
8.  (U) Metro officials publicly reiterated the subway 
system's safety features after opening Connaught Place 
Station, a huge venue located in a busy shopping and 
commercial area.  They reported that employees are trained in 
fire safety, and emergency protocols include a modern fire 
suppression system and high-speed reversible-flow fans to 
rapidly expel smoke.  The Metro is staffed by a mix of 550 
private guards, Delhi Police, and Central Reserve Police 
Force units.  (NOTE: CRPF troops successfully repelled the 
July 5 Ayodhya attack.  End Note.)  Their numbers are 
doubling with the addition of two companies of Delhi Armed 
Police, extra female security officers, and bomb-detection 
dogs, and the Home Ministry recently created a task force to 
conduct a top-to-bottom security review of the Metro network. 
 However, "Times of India" and "Hindustan Times" reporters 
recently published "sting" articles on security lapses at 
Metro and commuter rail stations, including police not 
frisking passengers who set off metal detectors. 
 
Forensics Improve, Plots Disrupted, But Convictions Lag 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
9.  (C) Indian security agencies are able to track down 
terrorists after an attack more quickly than they could 
before.  NDTV Security Correspondent Col. (ret.) Ajai Shukla 
pointed to the analysis of mobile telephone calls that helped 
both the Delhi and Uttar Pradesh police identify suspects 
quickly in the cinema and Ayodhya attacks.  One national 
intelligence unit tasked to counter Islamic terrorist cells 
outside J&K reports that it has disrupted on average one 
group per week for the past seven years (cell size not 
specified).  For the first half of 2005, they report having 
"identified and neutralized" suspected terrorists in Delhi, 
West Bengal, Uttaranchal, Mumbai, Bihar, Meghalaya, and 
Rajasthan. 
 
10.  (U) Other security agencies are also showing increased 
success in disrupting planned terrorist attacks and supply 
chains.  For example, Delhi police said they foiled a July 2 
attempt by four suspected terrorists to attack Palam Air 
Force Station.  The men were arrested with a hand grenade, 
firearms, a map of the air base, and over USD 1,000 in 
counterfeit currency.  Separately, a suspended J&K police 
officer in mid-June reportedly sent 40 wireless sets, 
antennae of various frequencies, and a Thuraya satellite 
phone from Jeddah to Indira Gandhi International Airport in 
Delhi.  This consignment, which was concealed in a package of 
carpets, was seized by Customs officers at the airport along 
with an accomplice on June 15.  Delhi Police Commissioner 
Paul said that the equipment was probably bound for 
terrorists operating in Kashmir. 
 
11.  (C) Despite these successes, many police officers still 
fail to gather sufficient credible evidence to secure 
convictions.  "Some of the Babar Khalsa guys will walk, many 
of the LeT cadres do, because the police botch the evidence. 
The worst thing would be if Pakistan gave us those 20 Most 
Wanted that the BJP government wanted a few years ago; even 
Dawood Ibrahim would probably walk free,"  Ajai Sahni told 
Poloff.  In the Kulvir Barapind case, the evidence against an 
alleged Khalistani terrorist currently in US custody is so 
weak that it is based on unsigned translated depositions that 
witnesses later recanted. 
 
Babar Khalsa Reactivated by Pakistan? 
------------------------------------- 
 
12.  (C) The BKI terrorists who were arrested for the May 22 
cinema bombings fingered their accomplices, and arrests are 
mounting.  A Delhi Police Special Cell unit on July 5 
captured three suspected BKI weapons suppliers in Jammu, 
reportedly based on information provided by one of the cinema 
bombers.  They arrested the traffickers after they had 
received 2.5 kg of RDX and ten detonators.  Several suspected 
BKI suicide bombers have also been captured by police in June 
and early July.  However, because the group has already 
augmented its numbers with "hired muscle" and may retain 
stockpiles of arms and explosives from years of inactivity, 
it is difficult to assess their numbers and capabilities, 
according to Sahni.  Indian intelligence believes that 
Islamabad is "reactivating" Khalistan-oriented terrorist with 
"fresh infusions" of money and arms, according to 
well-connected "Times of India" Foreign Affairs correspondent 
Indrani Bagchi, but Sahni and our Punjab contacts agree that 
Indian Sikhs are no longer sympathetic toward 
Khalistan-inspired political violence. 
 
Ayodhya Investigation Progressing, Security Gaps Remain 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
13.  (C) Indian security officials are keeping a close hold 
on the progress of the Ayodhya investigation, but law 
enforcement sources are saying off the record that: 
 
-- Police have arrested several former Students Islamic 
Movement of India (SIMI) members from Faizabad, six km from 
Ayodhya, in connection with the attack. 
 
-- Investigators reportedly traced some of the terrorists' 
50-plus cell phone calls made on the day of the attack to 
public phones in New Delhi. 
 
-- A person who is said to have web-chatted with one of the 
terrorists is being questioned by police. 
 
14.  (C) MEA Joint Secretary (Nepal) Ranjit Rae told PolCouns 
that New Delhi was closely tracking the nexus between 
terrorism in India and Nepal's open border.  He said New 
Delhi has increased scrutiny of Kathmandu after the 2000 
IC-814 hijacking and expressed concern about ISI activities 
in the Terai region, including explosives smuggling and 
counterfeiting.  He added that Nepal's connection to the 
Ayodhya attack remains under investigation. 
 
Police: Terror Chatter Foreshadows "Something Big" 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
15.  (C) Despite widespread media reporting that the BKI 
bombers were located by tracing their cell phone activity, 
the "Times of India" on July 6 reported that LeT "chatter" in 
the weeks preceding the Ayodhya attack seemed to indicate 
that cells in India were being egged on to attack "something 
big."  Former RAW Additional Secretary B Raman recently 
speculated that al-Qa'ida affiliated jihadi web sites 
(presumably LeT and Jaish-e-Mohammad) "have seen chatter 
critical of India's close relations with the US" and may spur 
on terrorist attacks, although he mentioned no specific 
information in this regard. 
 
Peace Process to Continue: London the New Threshold 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
16.  (U) Maintaining the measured tone that the PM set 
immediately after Ayodhya (Ref A), Home Minister Patil on 
July 10 announced that the GOI would not allow that attack to 
derail Indo-Pak rapprochement.  Patil was in Srinagar at the 
time, surveying security arrangements for the annual Armanath 
pilgrimage, which is usually a terrorist target.  Foreign 
Minister Natwar Singh the next day said that New Delhi would 
continue talks with Islamabad "unless there is a terrorist 
attack like the one witnessed in London," a higher threshold 
than the one set by the PM immediately after the attack. 
 
Celebrity Terrorist Wedding 
--------------------------- 
 
17.  (C) Specially Designated Global Terrorist Dawood 
Ibrahim, in addition to being on the BJP's "List of 20" 
wanted terrorists, is the father of the bride in this 
summer's most anticipated South Asia wedding, speculated to 
take place either in Mecca or Dubai.  Ibrahim's daughter is 
to wed the son of Pakistani cricketer Javed Miandad in an 
upcoming ceremony that has captured front-page news coverage. 
 Indian commentators have predicted that Ibrahim may attend 
the high-profile wedding in a burkah to elude Indian law 
enforcement.  News of the wedding has resurrected stories of 
the 1993 Mumbai bombings and his connections to LeT, stirring 
Indian anguish about Dawood's alleged protected status in 
Pakistan.  Former Principal Secretary Naresh Chandra recently 
cited this to us as one of several factors contributing to 
deepening GOI frustration about Pakistan's support for 
terrorism and Washington's perceived willingness to excuse 
these activities. 
 
Future Targets 
-------------- 
 
18.  (C) If the goal of terrorists operating in northern 
India is to try to inflame existing societal faultlines, 
future targets would likely include other religious sites. 
For example, the Armanath pilgrimage in J&K, now in progress, 
attracts hundreds of thousands of visitors each year.  A 2002 
attack on pilgrims left eight dead and over 30 injured. 
Security around other religious sites has reportedly been 
tightened, however, and the Ayodhya attack failed to spark 
any communal backlash.  A similar target in the realm of 
politics could be BJP or RSS headquarters; an attack there 
could exacerbate the current political backbiting between the 
Government and the Opposition over the Ayodhya attack and 
other security issues. 
 
19.  (C) Former Home Secretary Vohra told us recently that, 
based on GOI data, likely targets include the Indian Military 
Academy at Dehra Dun (which was targeted by an LeT cell that 
police intercepted in March) as well as J&K Chief Minister 
Mufti Mohammad Sayeed and his daughter, PDP President 
Mehbooba Mufti.  "Hindustan Times" terrorism journalist 
Rajnish Sharma reported that several key economic and 
infrastructure sites are also under high alert.  These 
include the Bhabha Atomic Research Center (BARC) and other 
nuclear sites, petroleum refineries, and stock exchanges. 
The Archeological Survey of India, which is responsible for 
heritage sites, recently noted that security was deficient at 
the Red Fort (which terrorists attacked in December 2000 and 
a frequent site of terrorist threats) and the Qutab Minar, 
 
20.  (C) Sahni lamented that, because "literally tons of 
materiel are pre-positioned throughout the country, terrorist 
cells can attack a target of opportunity within fairly broad 
parameters" despite police having seized hundreds of pounds 
of explosives and firearms in a series of raids against 
terrorist cells across northern India in recent weeks.  For 
example, the BKI cell probably chose the movie theaters to 
take advantage of the controversy surrounding the film 
showing there.  Ayodhya "was probably one of several 
religious targets that particular group could choose from." 
The interesting thing to note, Sahni added, was the target 
selection and modus operandi in both these attacks emphasized 
symbolism and exploiting political divisiveness over causing 
mass casualties.  He would not speculate that the groups were 
actively trying to minimize fatalities, only that it was not 
their primary goal. 
 
Comment: Bracing for the PM's Visit 
----------------------------------- 
 
21.  (C) Whether by design or chance, the terrorist team that 
attacked Ayodhya did so on the eve of the PM's trip to the 
G-8 Summit.  LeT and other terrorist groups will view the 
PM's July 17 trip to Washington as the prime symbol of the 
growing Indo-US relationship.  Although there have been no 
reported specific terror alerts in New Delhi, the White House 
meeting will provide a tempting opportunity for a spectacular 
attack and a symbolic connection that could politically 
outweigh Ayodhya.  Delhiites who recently celebrated the 
opening of a new Metro station at Connaught Place cannot help 
but wonder if terrorists are eyeing it, or other parts of 
their city, as a future target.  Concern appears highest in 
the capital, but potential targets exist throughout the 
country, and this is combining with new reports of terrorist 
training facilities in Pakistan -- and evidence of renewed 
infiltration -- to provoke mounting frustration about 
Musharraf's perceived unwillingness to make good on his 
repeated promises to end all terrorism against India. 
Mission India EACs will remain alert to any new threats and 
be prepared to respond quickly. 
BLAKE