US embassy cable - 02AMMAN5071

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 005071 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/2012 
TAGS: PREL, KPAL, IS, JO 
SUBJECT: SENATOR CORZINE DISCUSSES IRAQ AND THE MEPP WITH 
JORDANIAN LEADERS 
 
REF: TEL AVIV 04607 
 
Classified By: CDA GREGORY L. BERRY FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) Senator Jon Corzine traveled to Jordan August 28-30. 
On August 29, the Senator met with Foreign Minister Muasher, 
Prime Minister Abul Ragheb, Minister of National Economy 
Halaiqa, Minister of Finance Marto, private sector leaders, 
the Trade and Planning Ministers, and a number of media 
personalities.  The Senator also paid a courtesy call on 
Crown Prince Hamza.  Throughout the meetings, Senator Corzine 
heard familiar Jordanian views on Iraq and the MEPP.  End 
Summary. 
 
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MEETING WITH FM SETS THE TONE FOR THE DAY: IRAQ AND MEPP 
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2. (C) Senator Corzine, accompanied by his party, the Charge, 
and Poloff, had his most substantive meeting with FM Muasher, 
who underlined Jordanian concerns about U.S. military action 
against Iraq.  The FM predicted the loss of $500 million in 
Iraqi oil subsidies, and also expressed concern about 
managing public opinion, which was already difficult because 
of the "West Bank crisis."  As on previous occasions, 
however, the FM--as did all GOJ officials the Senator 
met--underscored that Jordan would safeguard its relationship 
with the U.S. in any crisis.  Muasher said that Jordan was 
encouraging Iraq to allow the inspectors back in, but was 
"not having any luck."  Muasher also expressed concern about 
"the day after."  He opined that the disintegration of the 
Iraqi state would be a "disaster."  When questioned why, the 
FM said he feared that in place of an Iraqi state, there 
would be a Kurdish state in the North that would control the 
oil fields, a Sunni state in the middle, and an 
Iranian-controlled Shia state in the South.  Muasher 
cautioned that a long-term U.S. military presence in Iraq 
post-Saddam would also be problematic for the region as 
people would see it as a foreign occupation. 
 
3. (C) FM Muasher also outlined the GOJ's current approach to 
the Israeli-Palestinian confrontation.  The GOJ has publicly 
championed the U.S.'s call for a two-state solution, as 
outlined in President Bush's June 24 speech.  Muasher 
encouraged the U.S. to exert more pressure on Israel on the 
settlements issue, in part to counter the wide-spread 
perception here that the U.S. is one-sided and is only 
pushing for Palestinian action.  Muasher expressed concern 
that Sharon was not committed to a two-state solution, "I'm 
not sure he's not unhappy with Arafat's inaction."  Muasher 
underscored the significance of the Arab Initiative because 
it addresses both Israeli security and demographic needs. 
Muasher said that Arab countries need to take this plan 
directly to the Israeli public to start "rebuilding trust." 
 
4. (C) Muasher also addressed the recent bulge in the 
Southern wall in response to a question by Senator Corzine 
(Reftel).  Jordan has sent a technical team to evaluate the 
bulge and Muasher told the Senator that the Israelis have 
overblown the problem because "they want a say in East 
Jerusalem."  Muasher stressed that the GOJ wants to keep the 
issue at the technical level and do not want to see it 
politicized. 
 
5. (C) As the meeting closed, Muasher praised the bilateral 
relationship between the U.S. and Jordan, emphasizing recent 
trade expansion and calling the FTA a "jewel" that has so far 
created 20,000-25,000 jobs in Jordan (comment: he was 
probably thinking about QIZ-related jobs).  Muasher said the 
beauty of the FTA is "that it poses no threat to the U.S. 
economy, but it has done wonders for the Jordanian economy." 
 
 
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PM CONCERNED ABOUT FUNDAMENTALISM 
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6. (C) The Senator's following meeting with PM Abul Ragheb 
(accompanied by FM Muasher) covered similar ground.  The PM 
again emphasized the importance of the Arab initiative and 
cautioned that action against Iraq would "complicate the U.S. 
war against terrorism."  The PM also touched on another 
possible consequence of a U.S. offensive against Iraq--an 
increase in "fundamentalism" in the region.  The PM tied this 
to the Palestinian cause as well, "if we solve the 
Palestinian issue, we give extremists less material and 
emotional buttons to work with."  The PM echoed concerns 
expressed by the Foreign and Finance Ministers earlier in the 
day about the economic consequences of a U.S. offensive 
against Iraq.  Apart from Jordan's dependence on Iraqi oil, 
Abul Ragheb pointed to the consequences on other sectors 
(i.e. trucking industry, factories, laborers, etc.), "we can 
deal with the unions, the protests, etc., but when people are 
hungry, we have problems." 
 
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OTHER MEETINGS STRESS GOJ ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE 
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7. (C) During their meetings with the Senator, both Minister 
of Finance Marto and Minister of National Economy Halaiqa 
enthusiastically pointed to indicators of Jordan's improved 
economic performance and standing in the world, including 
Jordan's accession to the WTO and the U.S.-Jordanian FTA. 
Halaiqa pointed to continued economic reform, despite 
regional problems.  "Jordan pays a heavy price for others' 
bad decisions, but it will not stop us from economic reform." 
 Halaiqa also voiced concerns about the impact of an 
offensive against Iraq on Jordan's economy.  Halaiqa opined 
that Jordan "will have to start from scratch" because any 
cutoff in oil supplies from Iraq would force the GOJ to buy 
from the world market, "draining" their foreign currency 
reserves. 
 
8. (C) At a luncheon hosted by the head of the Pharmaceutical 
Manufacturers' Association (who also owns a generic drug 
manufacturer in New Jersey), the Senator heard from a 
cross-section of private sector leaders and members of the 
GOJ's "economic team" including Minister of Trade Salah al 
Bashir and Minister of Planning Bassam Awadullah, about 
Jordan's strong interest in doing more business with the U.S. 
under the FTA and QIZ initiative.  They said that the main 
obstacle deterring business was political uncertainty in the 
region, particularly in the West Bank/Gaza and Iraq. 
 
9. (C) Discussion at a dinner with prominent media 
personalities centered on the Palestinian issue.  Most of the 
participants supported President Bush's June 24 speech, but 
agreed that the focus on Arafat was counterproductive and 
probably strengthened Arafat in the end. 
 
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COMMENT 
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10. (U) Senator Corzine did not have the opportunity to clear 
this message before departure. 
BERRY