US embassy cable - 05RANGOON825

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000825 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/11/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, BM 
SUBJECT: BURMA HOLDS IT CARDS ON ASEAN CHAIR ISSUE 
 
REF: RANGOON 481 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  According to senior GOB officials, Burma 
will not announce a decision on the 2006 ASEAN chair issue in 
Vientiane and will approach the annual ASEAN meetings with an 
"ambiguous" position, apparently intent to keep open its 
options and kick the can further down the road until at least 
the ASEAN Summit in December in Malaysia.  It is entirely 
possible that top SDPC generals could, as they have done on 
other policy issues, instruct their own envoys to renege on 
alleged assurances to ASEAN leaders that Burma will take a 
pass on the chair.  End Summary. 
 
2. (C) On July 12, U Thaung Tun, MFA Director General for 
Political Affairs, told A/DCM that Burmese delegates to 
upcoming ASEAN meetings in Vientiane would be "ambiguous" on 
Burma's position regarding assumption of the ASEAN chair in 
2006.  He said that no formal GOB decision would be announced 
and that the international community would have to "read 
between the lines" to ascertain the SPDC's intentions. 
 
3. (C) U Thaung Tun also said that he had been tapped as 
Burma's next envoy to the Philippines and he expected to head 
out to Manila within the next two months.  He said he had 
concluded, though he had not been explicitly told, it was 
likely that the SPDC generals will permit him to take a 
foreign posting only because Burma would not assume the ASEAN 
chair in 2006 and would therefore not require his presence in 
Rangoon. 
 
4. (C) Thaung Tun added that since the chair would rotate 
next to the Philippines, it was significant that he was being 
posted to Manila.  (Note:  U Thaung Tun, a former DCM in 
Washington, has been the MFA's DG for political affairs for 
five years and served as an increasingly trusted aide and 
interpreter for the SPDC's top generals.  However, he admits 
that like most any career civil servant he is not privy to 
SPDC decision-making.  End Note.) 
 
5. (C) Also on July 12, the Bangladesh Defense Attache told 
A/DCM that he had that evening pressed Foreign Minister Nyan, 
a former acquaintance at an Indian Command and Staff College, 
on the ASEAN chair issue.  The FM replied that he was "not a 
decision maker" and would attend the Vientiane ASEAN meetings 
"only for discussions" and not to make any announcement on 
the ASEAN chair issue.  The FM intimated, according to the 
Bangladesh DATT, that the SPDC generals had not made any 
conclusions and would probably have nothing to say publicly 
until at least the December ASEAN Summit in Malaysia. 
 
6. (C) Comment:  It would appear that the GOB will go to 
Vientiane leaving open all of its options on the ASEAN chair 
issue.  As we observed in reftel, past regime practice 
portends an eleventh hour decision--and such a decision rests 
solely with SPDC Chairman Than Shwe and Vice Chairman Maung 
Aye.  They will not bow out in reaction to international 
pressure or indirect prodding from other ASEAN members.  It 
is entirely possible that the top generals could, as they 
have done on other issues, instruct Prime Minister Soe Win, 
FM Nyan Win, and other regime envoys to renege on alleged 
private assurances to ASEAN leaders that Burma will take a 
pass on the chair.  End Comment. 
Martinez