US embassy cable - 05MANILA3231

UNCLAS MANILA 003231 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/PMBS, INR/EAP, DS/ITA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PINS, PGOV, ASEC, RP 
SUBJECT: ARROYO OPPOSITION FAILS TO PRODUCE MASSIVE 
DEMONSTRATION 
 
REF: A. MANILA 3187 
 
     B. MANILA 3167 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary: A July 13 opposition rally in Manila's 
central business district produced only an estimated 
15-20,000 demonstrators as of 1600 hrs local, although 
numbers may grow somewhat with speakers like FPJ widow Susan 
Roces later on.  Police appear to have blocked busloads of 
would-be protesters, some of them possibly "rent-a-crowds." 
There were no reports of violence.  The opposition plans 
additional rallies to highlight its call for President Arroyo 
to resign, but the momentum for protest appears for now to 
have sizzled -- barring new scandals that might affect the 
President's credibility.  Pro-GMA forces also plan a large 
public demonstration on July 16.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (U) A July 13 opposition rally as of 1600 hours local in 
the central business district of Makati in Metro Manila had 
produced a mostly lackluster crowd that emboffs and others 
estimated at no more than 15-20,000 people, despite claims 
from organizers of up to 100,000 demonstrators already.  The 
rally is scheduled to last until 8 p.m., but many predict it 
will continue longer.  Although the crowd was the probably 
the largest yet this summer, it was significantly smaller 
than the 50,000 to one million crowd that some opposition 
leaders had anticipated.  Traffic was interrupted in Makati, 
but not on the near-by EDSA ring road (where 1986 and 2001 
"people protests" took place) or other major arteries. 
According to media reports, Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, an 
opposition leader, closed Makati City Hall at midday on July 
13 and instructed all employees to attend the rally.  There 
are also numerous reports of "rent-a-crowd" protesters, and 
of Philippine National Police restrictions on busloads of 
protesters traveling on EDSA to get to the rally.  There were 
no reports of violence. 
 
3.  (U) Various speakers at the rally have already called on 
President Arroyo to resign.  Susan Roces, widow of the late 
2004 presidential candidate Fernando Poe Jr., was scheduled 
to speak at 6 p.m. and also to call for Arroyo to step down. 
Other participants in the protests included Senator Panfilo 
"Ping" Lacson and Renato De Villa, leader of the Reporma 
political party and a former Secretary of Defense under 
then-president Fidel Ramos.  Significant numbers of 
protesters appeared to come from supporters of former 
president Joseph Estrada as well as from "legal left" 
political parties including Bayan Muna, Anak Pawis, San 
Lakas, Gabriela, and Bayan as well as from the militant labor 
union Kilosang Mayo Uno (KMU).  Anti-Arroyo college students 
were also present.  Evangelical Christian supporters of 
Brother Eddie Villanueva participated in the rally, following 
their smaller July 12 anti-Arroyo "nighttime vigil" in the 
same Makati venue. 
 
4.  (U)  Supporters of President Arroyo separately plan a 
July 16 "Gathering for Peace and Unity for the Rule of Law" 
in downtown Manila closer to Malacanang Palace (and the 
Embassy), and are hoping for a turnout of between 100,000 and 
200,000. 
 
5.  (SBU) Comment:  Despite opposition plans for additional 
rallies, the anti-GMA momentum seems to have fizzled 
following the decision of Catholic Bishops not to support a 
call for Arroyo's resignation.  In the absence of a new 
scandal that might further affect Arroyo's credibility and 
leadership, opposition efforts to galvanize much of a popular 
turnout are unlikely to be any more successful than today. 
Rainy weather at this time