US embassy cable - 05MINSK760

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000760 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
KIEV FOR USAID 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/15 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, BO 
SUBJECT: New SD Leader Meets Ambassador, Tries to Sell 
Snake Oil 
 
Refs: (A) Minsk 481, (B) Minsk 607 
 
Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: On July 7, new social democrat leader 
Aleksandr Kozulin called on Ambassador Krol to give his 
view of the political opposition in Belarus.  Kozulin spent 
most of the meeting slamming the rest of the opposition for 
their waste of foreign monies and inability to build their 
parties.  He made it clear his party will not unite with 
the rest of the opposition.  Although he spoke little about 
himself or his party, he broadly hinted that only he 
deserves U.S. support.  Kozulin discussed the growing fear 
of Lukashenko among the bureaucracy, and that he explained 
to Moscow that Lukashenko is a bigger threat to Russia than 
is the West.  While Moscow agreed, he claimed they are 
afraid Belarus after Lukashenko would turn to the West. 
Kozulin suggested the U.S. and EU tell Putin they will not 
oppose a third Putin term in exchange for Moscow removing 
Lukashenko.  End summary. 
 
2. (C) On July 7 Ambassador met with Aleksandr Kozulin, new 
leader of the new Belarusian Social Democratic Party 
Hramada (BSDPH).  This was their first meeting since 
Kozulin was fired as rector of Belarusian State University 
in 2003.  The BSDPH was formed in January when rebel 
majorities of Belarus' two previous social democratic 
parties voted to merge, against the will of their party 
leaders (ref A).  Kozulin was elected head of this new 
party in April, even though he only entered the party, and 
politics, in February.  The BSDPH avoided problems with 
legal registration by stealing the name of one of the pre- 
existing social democratic parties.  However, the party was 
forced to apply to the Ministry of Justice to change its 
name, as it previously contained the now banned word 
"Narodnaya" ("People's" or "National", ref B). 
Surprisingly, the MOJ agreed to the change and registered 
the new name on June 28, the first time the MOJ has 
registered a new party since 1999.  [Comment: In 
registering the BSDPH, the MOJ cancelled their registration 
under their old name, BSDPNG.  Rival social democratic 
leader and (until his recent conviction for leading a 
protest) presidential candidate Nikolay Statkevich still 
claims to lead the BSDPNG, which is now unregistered.  This 
blow at Statkevich may be one reason why BSDPH was 
registered.] 
 
 
No Unity Possible 
----------------- 
 
3. (C) Kozulin opened the meeting by stressing the 
importance of unity in the opposition.  He then spent much 
of the remainder of the meeting explaining at length the 
incompetence of all the other opposition leaders.  Kozulin 
claimed they had received millions of dollars in aid over 
the years, but had nothing to show for it.  They could have 
purchased office space, thereby avoiding the current 
problem all parties are facing, but are not competent 
managers.  Since Kozulin took over the BSDPH from 
Statkevich, he said he has been trying to find out what 
Statkevich did with the hundreds of thousands of dollars 
the party received from western donors every year.  Kozulin 
called Statkevich a thief, and lamented his party does not 
have a decent office, a vehicle, or structures in the 
regions to show for the money. 
 
4. (C) Kozulin accused all the party leaders of being 
involved in politics only for the money and travel 
opportunities.  None of the other party leaders have the 
experience he has running a large organization, so they 
waste any money they receive.  He specifically knocked 
rival social democrat leader Stanislav Shushkevich as 
living a good life off grants, and the BNF and UCP parties 
for having become moribund and shadows of their former 
selves.  Because of this lack of experience, none of them 
could run the country even if elected. 
 
5. (C) Kozulin argued the current process to find a single 
opposition candidate will lead to disunity as all the 
candidates want to be the leader and will not cooperate. 
 
Further, their coalition is artificial, uniting 
nationalists and communists.  Although this may work at the 
top of the parties, Kozulin is convinced lower level party 
members are deeply unhappy.  Lastly, the process itself is 
flawed.  Rather than approaching the people and letting 
them choose the most popular candidate, the other 
opposition leaders are focused on a staged process to pick 
their own candidate.  [Note: Kozulin is staying out of this 
process to find a single candidate.  Several sources have 
reported to Emboffs that Kozulin claims to be waiting for 
the end of the process, at which point Kozulin and the 
opposition single candidate "will sit down and decide who 
will be the real opposition candidate."] 
 
 
Newspapers Good, TV and Radio Bad 
--------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Turning to foreign aid, Kozulin argued that funding 
independent television and radio would be helpful, but 
would take too long to implement.  He suggested spending 
more to help existing print media, which could have a much 
quicker impact and is cheaper.  His party is providing aid 
to the Narodnaya Volya newspaper and Kozulin's unnamed 
backers are creating a media holding company to help 
opposition press.  He said they could give USD two million 
for this project.  [Note: this aid explains why Narodnaya 
Volya has run so many positive articles on Kozulin.] 
 
 
Nomenklatura Unhappy 
-------------------- 
 
7. (C) According to Kozulin, Belarus' bureaucrats hate 
Lukashenko, but will not support an outsider (i.e.- a 
member of the usual opposition) against him.  The 
bureaucracy sees Lukashenko as a threat, and most fear he 
could fire or imprison them at any time.  In one of the few 
instances where he spoke about himself, Kozulin mentioned 
that he was a bureaucrat [implying he could be their 
candidate].  He credited recent public statements from 
President Bush and Secretary Rice for making the Belarusian 
nomenklatura think more deeply about their situation. 
 
 
Belarus is a Threat to Russia 
----------------------------- 
 
8. (C) Kozulin said he had attended a conference in Moscow 
organized by Gleb Pavlovskiy the week before.  While in 
Moscow he explained to the Russians how Lukashenko is a 
dual threat to Russia.  Lukashenko is still focused on 
becoming president of Russia and will use all his wily 
ways, including supporting the Belarusian-Russian union, to 
achieve this.  Conversely, because Russia supports 
Lukashenko, the longer Lukashenko stays in power the 
greater grow anti-Russian feelings in Belarus.  Kozulin 
cited dropping support for union as evidence.  He stated 
Lukashenko is ready to use violence to preserve his tenure, 
and said any such bloodshed would be blamed on Russia. 
 
9. (C) When he said this in Moscow, Kozulin claimed his 
Russian interlocutors agreed that Lukashenko is a time bomb 
and that Russia must change things in Belarus.  However, 
Moscow is afraid to act because they see the U.S. and EU as 
greater threats and are afraid Lukashenko's successor would 
bring Belarus to the West.  Kozulin suggested the U.S., EU 
and the OSCE approach Putin and offer him "help" in the 
2008 Russian presidential elections in exchange for Moscow 
removing Lukashenko.  Kozulin was convinced Putin would 
give up "small Belarus" for "help" in 2008.  [Comment: 
although he did not say so outright, Kozulin was hinting 
that Putin would give up Belarus if the West would 
acquiesce to his serving a third term.] 
 
10. (C) Comment: Kozulin made no direct appeals for U.S. 
support, but clearly hinted he is the only one deserving 
our money.  While his description of the rest of the 
opposition was somewhat accurate, it is disappointing he 
used his first meeting with the Ambassador since entering 
politics to criticize his colleagues and say little about 
 
his own plans and activities.  Kozulin did not say who is 
funding his meteoric rise in politics.  A Swedish NGO 
representative who has worked with Belarus' social 
democrats since 1996 recently told us Kozulin has adopted 
the worst traits of the stereotypical New Russian, 
literally throwing rolls of dollar bills at NGO and party 
leaders to gain their support.  The shiny suit, fancy 
shoes, overpowering cologne and white socks he wore to meet 
the Ambassador, not to mention shifty eyes and insincere 
smile, did nothing to dispel that impression.  By all 
accounts Kozulin bought himself the support of a party.  He 
tells us his goal is to challenge Lukashenko; most of the 
rest of the opposition feels Lukashenko planted him to 
split the opposition.  Whichever is true, further 
opposition unity is not on the horizon. 
 
 
KROL