US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD2923

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002923 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2025 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, IZ, Elections, Electoral Commision 
SUBJECT: IECI AUGUST VOTER REGISTRATION LIKELY TO BE 
DELAYED AND UPSET BARZANI 
 
REF: BAGHDAD 2495 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Ford. 
Reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
1.  (C) Summary.  Independent Electoral Commission of 
Iraq Chief Electoral Officer Allami believes the start 
of the voter registration update period might be 
delayed until August 7.  IECI is experienced in 
handling slight delays in schedule, so this one-week 
delay should not pose a serious threat to the rest of 
the electoral timeline.  The referendum law is likely 
to pass shortly; the Transitional National Assembly 
discussed the two-page draft law prepared by its legal 
committee on July 11.  The 107,000 people, mostly 
Kurds, who registered in Kirkuk January 17-25 under an 
exceptional provision, will have to formally 
reregister during the August update exercise to 
participate in the upcoming referendum and December 
elections.  This requirement will likely irk Barzani. 
We will work closely with Barzani to win his 
cooperation so Kirkuk avoids a Kurdish boycott.  End 
Summary. 
 
Slight Delay Expected 
--------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq 
(IECI) Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) Allami confirmed 
to PolOff on July 10 that the IECI might need to 
postpone the voter registration update period.  In the 
worst case, he said, IECI would delay the start of the 
registration period until August 7 and shorten the 
period from four weeks to three weeks.  He cited 
delays in signing contracts for printing, logistics 
support and public outreach/media campaigns as the 
main reasons for the possible delay.  So far, only the 
contract for printing of voter lists has been signed. 
 
3.  (C) Security preparations to protect approximately 
550 voter registration centers seem to be picking up 
after a slow start.  At last week's interagency 
meeting on elections security, a representative from 
the Ministry of Defense declared that MOD intends to 
provide specialized training for its troops guarding 
the centers.  IECI CEO Allami hopes to make 
significant progress on security coordination during 
an upcoming July 14 IECI nation-wide meeting that will 
include participation from 18 IECI governorate 
directors and their security counterparts.  Like the 
January elections, Allami said that security 
conditions in Anbar and Ninewah would determine 
whether IECI would be able to open registration 
centers in those provinces.  He said the majority of 
centers would be in schools and staffed largely by 
teachers.  (Comment: Not opening the centers in Anbar 
could discourage Sunni Arab participation in the 
political process.  And, if centers do not open in 
Ninewah, the Christian community may accuse the IECI 
of bias against them.  Reftel describes the voter 
registration update program in more detail.  End 
Comment.) 
 
Referendum Law 
--------------- 
 
4.  (C) The referendum law seems likely to pass 
shortly; the Transitional National Assembly (TNA) 
discussed for the first time the draft law prepared by 
its Legal Committee on July 11.  IECI Commissioner 
Hamdia (strictly protect) has been unofficially 
advising the Legal Committee responsible for drafting 
the law and, she has widely consulted with 
international electoral experts.  Although unlikely, 
the current draft may still undergo changes as issues 
are deliberated.  For example, in a July 10 
consultation meeting with the Legal Committee, Hamdia 
had to explain that the Out-of-Country voting for the 
referendum is not possible under the TAL. 
 
5.  (C) The two-page draft referendum law under 
consideration by the TNA formally authorizes the IECI 
to implement the referendum and certify the results. 
It clarifies that those having been born on or before 
31 December 1987 are eligible to vote.  Additionally, 
the draft states that the question in the referendum 
ballot will be "Do agree on the draft of the ballot or 
not."  The draft law referendum law is brief because 
it refers to CPA order 92 (Creation of IECI) and 
Article 11 of the TAL (Iraqi citizenship). 
 
"Reregister" 107,000 Kirkuk Kurds? 
---------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) According to IECI Commissioner Safwat (a 
Kurd), those who were allowed to same-day register and 
vote on January 30, as well as the 107,000 people, 
mostly Kurds, who registered in Kirkuk January 17-25 
under an exceptional provision, must formally register 
during the August update exercise to participate in 
the upcoming referendum and December election.  Safwat 
said that it was never intended for the exceptional 
registration cases to be added permanently to the 
voter roll.  In the case of Kirkuk, Safwat explained 
that the last-minute solution to avoid a Kirkuk 
provincial council election boycott by the KDP and PUK 
leadership led to the agreement that the IECI would 
accept the 1957 census document as an acceptable 
identity document for the large number of mostly 
undocumented Kurds who claimed to be Kirkuk residents. 
The 1957 census is considered accurate and took place 
before Saddam Hussein's Arabization program, said 
Safwat. 
 
7.  (C) However, Safwat continued, 1957 census 
documents are not widely available and obtaining them 
is problematic, implying that many of the 107,000 who 
registered in January unlikely had authentic 1957 
census documents.  To avoid a similar situation, 
Safwat has been advising Kirkuk leaders that authentic 
identity papers will be strictly required during the 
upcoming August registration period.  Sawfat said that 
the Ministry of Interior (MOI) is in possession of 
1957 census documents and, to avoid another crisis in 
Kirkuk, he asked Poloff to quietly press the MOI to 
make them available to Kirkuk residents. 
 
8.  (C) In a separate meeting, former IFES team leader 
to the IECI Jarret Blanc agreed with PolOff that the 
Kurdish registration issue in Kirkuk could potentially 
be contentious and misunderstood.  He suggested a 
vigorous IECI public awareness campaign, specially 
targeting and encouraging the 107,000 Kirkuk residents 
to reregister in August, was in order.  At the same 
time, Kurdish leader Masood Barzani should be 
approached to win his cooperation, opined Blanc. 
 
9.  (C) Comment.  Delays in the return of the Board of 
Commissioners and key administrative staffers after 
their meeting with UN/EAD Pirelli in Amman (10 days 
total outside of Iraq) did not help IECI to meet its 
recent deadlines.  However, minor delays in the 
schedule are nothing new for IECI, and this slight 
postponement should not adversely affect overall 
electoral preparations.  IECI CEO Allami seems 
confident that the registration period could be 
shortened in the event of a delay, but the Board of 
Commissioners may decide to extend the registration 
period into September, causing pressures to reduce 
time periods on other electoral events that follow - 
including the exhibition and challenges period.  In 
December 2004, Masood Barzani was dissatisfied with 
the Kurdish voter registration process and this was 
one of the factors leading to his threat to withdraw 
from the Kirkuk local elections.  Looking ahead to the 
constitution referendum, the "second" registration of 
107,000 Kirkuk, mostly Kurdish "residents" will likely 
upset Barzani.  Barzani could well complain about 
people having to register again.  We will work closely 
with him to win his early cooperation so Kirkuk avoids 
a possible Kurdish boycott of the re-registration 
process.  End Comment. 
 
10.  (U) REO HILLAH, REO BASRAH, REO MOSUL, and REO 
KIRKUK, minimize considered. 
 
 
Satterfield