US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI5320

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 005320 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: RSS FLEXES POLITICAL MUSCLES, DEMANDS ADVANI'S 
REMOVAL 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 4315 
     B. NEW DELHI 4232 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: The right-wing Hindutva Rashtriya 
Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) asserted its political dominance of 
the BJP on July 8, calling for the removal of LK Advani from 
his party leadership positions, including the presidency and 
head of the parliamentary delegation.  Pundits expect the 
move to succeed, resulting in greater RSS control of the BJP 
and a shift towards an even more radical Hindutva agenda. 
None of Advani's likely successors have his national 
credibility.  RSS domination of the BJP would further 
alienate Indian voters, and continue the party's downward 
slide.  Continued BJP infighting benefits Congress, as PM 
Manmohan Singh builds his credentials as a respected domestic 
politician and an international statesman.  Congress sees an 
opening to go after BJP governments in the Hindi heartland 
and eventually win an insurmountable parliamentary majority. 
End Summary. 
 
The RSS Attacks its Own 
----------------------- 
 
2.  (C) On July 8, the RSS demanded that the BJP remove LK 
Advani, himself an RSS member, from his post as party 
President following his controversial remarks in June 
(Reftel) characterizing Muhammad Ali Jinnah as a secularist. 
RSS spokesman Ram Madhav told us on June 9 that the RSS 
leadership is furious at Advani and is looking for 
"systematic changes to ensure that the RSS core ideology is 
not diluted."  Veteran BJP leader JP Mathur commented to us 
on June 11 that Advani's future "does not look bright" and 
that the RSS would most likely succeed in removing him from 
the presidency.  He added that the RSS might wait until after 
the October-November state elections in Bihar to sack Advani, 
but would not relent on its removal demand.  Mathur suggested 
that the RSS is backing Murli Manohar Joshi, whose 
ideological purity is more certain, to take over from Advani 
until someone from the next generation of leaders is ready 
for the job. 
 
3.  (C) In a comment clearly aimed at Advani, state-level RSS 
chiefs, meeting in Surat on July 9, expressed concern over 
"ideological erosion" in the BJP.  The RSS statement  was a 
rare public attack on the man long considered to be in league 
with the RSS and the party's right wing.  This atypical 
airing of internal BJP issues indicates the seriousness of 
the struggle between moderate and right-wing elements of the 
party, and the determination of the RSS to impose its will. 
 
4.  (C) The RSS and BJP will continue negotiations to 
engineer a compromise that will allow Advani to stay on, but 
political insiders expect that he will not last long.  RSS 
hard-liners have laid the groundwork for a rightward shift by 
removing the moderate liaisons between the RSS and BJP, and 
installing a hard-liner who has repeatedly called for 
Advani's resignation. 
 
Comment: Hindutva, Even if it Kills Us 
-------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) The RSS move signals that the battle between the right 
wing and moderate constituencies of the BJP has come to a 
head.  The RSS and Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) are determined 
to control the party and take it down a more fundamentalist 
path.  If they succeed, that will further splinter the NDA 
coalition and hasten the BJP's decline as a force in Indian 
national politics.  Congress is delighted by this turn of 
events, as the BJP leadership appears increasingly out of 
step with the moderate middle ground that the majority of 
Indians support in the wake of the Ayodhya attack.  The BJP's 
decline has spurred Congress insiders to begun debating the 
possibility of unseating BJP governments in the Hindi 
heartland and eventually calling a new national election to 
secure a strong UPA majority in Parliament, free of reliance 
on the left.  Advani, ironically, tried to shift the BJP 
toward the middle and possibly electoral success, but the RSS 
and VHP clearly care more for ideological purity, no matter 
the cost. 
BLAKE