US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD2909

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 002909 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/11/2025 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, IZ, Shia Islamists, Kurdistan Islamic Union 
SUBJECT: KURDS' SHAWAYS AND SHIA PARLIAMENTARIAN DAOUD 
AGREE AND DISAGREE ON CONSTITUTION ISSUES 
 
Classified By: Charge d' Affaires David M. Satterfield for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY.  In separate meetings with DPM Rosch Shaways 
and TNA member Qassim Daoud on July 8, the Charge pressed 
home USG concerns that the constitution might delineate 
central and regional government revenue and ownership sharing 
of the nation's natural resources.  Charge explained that 
depriving the central government of ownership and revenues of 
the natural resources could jeopardize Iraq's commitments 
with international financial institutions.  Toeing the 
Kurdish line, DPM Shaways was unresponsive, while Daoud 
appeared poised to reconsider his support for joint ownership 
and revenue sharing.  Shaways and Daoud both fretted that 
Sunni members would try to sabotage the committee 
proceedings.  Daoud also sought USG help on checking Kurdish 
demands on federalism and Kirkuk.   Daoud also predicted the 
Shia List would not hold for the next elections and that 
Allawi would get no more than ten seats.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C/NF) Charge d'Affaires Satterfield addressed 
constitutional issues in meetings with Deputy Prime Minister 
and KDP member Rosch Shaways and Transitional National 
Assembly constitution committee member Qassim Daoud July 8. 
 
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Warding off Possible Sunni Sabotage of the August 15 Deadline 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
3.  (C/NF) Daoud told the Charge he is less optimistic about 
meeting the 15 August deadline now with the additional Sunni 
members on the committee, given their "unreasonable" 
positions on federalism, Kirkuk, and the identity of Iraq. 
The committee as a whole has had three meetings and will 
divide the new Sunni members among the subcommittees on July 
9.  Daoud cautioned that the committee must continue working 
towards the 15 August deadline--"a holy day"-- despite the 
problems with Sunnis.  He fears some Sunnis will attempt to 
sabotage the process by withdrawing.  Others, such as Iraqi 
Islamic Party Ayed Samarai'e and National Dialogue Council's 
Saleh al-Mutlak, will probably stay, according to Daoud. 
(Note:  Daoud said he is a long-time friend of Mutlak and can 
use his personal ties to pressure him on key issues.)  Daoud 
related how he had highlighted to the Sunnis that there is no 
steathily prepared draft constitution written by the US, UK, 
or Israelis, a popular conspiracy theory. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
Sunnis Clash on Arab Identity and Federalism 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C/NF) Sunni Arabs are insisting Iraq be defined as an 
Arab nation, which Daoud claims is unfair to the Kurds and 
other minorities.  Daoud also said the Sunni members are 
completely unrealistic about federalism and do not at all 
accept its principles, preferring a strongly centralized 
system.  (Note: Daoud is a member of the federalism 
subcommittee.)  Daoud mentioned Ayatollah Sistani's 
reservations about federalism stem from Sistani's concern 
that small, autonomous Shia regions will be more susceptible 
to Iranian interference in the south.  Sistani reportedly 
would prefer one single southern region in order to forge a 
stronger area.  Shaways, on the other hand, told the Charge 
he favors a highly decentralized federal structure, in which 
the "real power" in the country is at the regional or 
governorate level.   He warned that the Sunni Arabs already 
were expressing reservations about federalism and there could 
be big problems on this point.  Shaways mentioned in passing 
that the Kurds don't much care if there is a single Shia 
region within a federal Iraq or several smaller regions. 
(Comment:  we will check to see if other Kurdish leaders are 
as nonchalant about this question.  End Comment.) 
 
------------------------------------ 
Charge Warns on Regions and Revenues 
------------------------------------ 
 
5.  (C/NF) Shaways and Daoud separately told the Charge they 
supported a "shared ownership and revenue arrangement" of 
natural resources between the central and regional 
governments.  The Charge made clear that the USG and the 
international community strongly believe that revenue and 
ownership of Iraq's natural resources "belong to the Iraqi 
nation".  Putting a constitutional straight jacket over the 
ownership of the resources and revenues would complicate 
Iraq's future relations with the international financial 
community.  It would be preferable to have revenue-sharing 
undertaken as part of a normal budget process.  Shaways 
listened to the Charge's comments but offered no substantive 
response.  Daoud, for his part, replied, "You have convinced 
me." and said that he would press the matter with the rest of 
the committee. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
Constitution Committee Leaning Towards Parliamentary System 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
6.  (C/NF) Shaways told the Charge he preferred a 
parliamentary form of government with the parliament electing 
the president and prime minister.  He recommended that the 
Presidency Council remain a three-member group but that it 
have more authority than the TAL now provides them.  Daoud 
also said the committee is leaning towards a parliamentary 
system with a strong prime minister and fewer powers for the 
president than the current setup.  Daoud believed Iraq's 
diverse nature requires a diffuse system, because it provides 
more positions for more factions.  (Comment:  Shaways' 
preference is logical given the Kurds' minority status.  End 
Comment.) 
 
--------------- 
Kirkuk:  Sticky 
--------------- 
 
7.  (C/NF) Daoud asked the US to help push Kurds to be 
reasonable about their "place in Iraq", Kirkuk, and 
federalism.  The Kurds are overstepping their bounds on the 
KRG's authorities, positions in central government, and 
geographic area, reaching into traditional Arab regions, such 
as Ninewa province, he claimed.  Daoud noted that during the 
week of the Brussels Conference, when much of the Iraqi 
leadership was out of Baghdad, Iraq had a Kurdish President 
(Talabani), a Kurdish Prime Minister (acting PM Shaways), 
Foreign Minister and Kurdish Army chief of Staff.  The Charge 
responded that we are pressing Kurds on their commitments to 
Iraq and the process. 
 
8.  (C/NF) Daoud also noted Sistani's view on the Kurds and 
Kirkuk.  Daoud said Sistani had originally asked Allawi to 
join the combined Shia list before the last elections so the 
Shia could present a united front to more effectively limit 
Kurdish demands.  The Kurds are pressing for Kirkuk's 
settlement ahead of the constitution and next elections, 
complained Daoud.  The Charge urged that TAL Article 58 
language be the basis for the resolution. 
 
9.  (C)  Shaways separately told the Charge he believed Shia 
Arabs were not energized about Kirkuk.  He thought they could 
stay in Kirkuk after the city passes to KRG control if they 
wanted.  Shaways did not raise the importance of finalizing 
Kirkuk's status immediately.  Instead, he said the new 
constitution should contain the Article 58 language verbatim. 
 Charge pressed Shaways on standing up the Kirkuk provincial 
government by bringing in genuinely representative Turkman 
and Arab leaders into the top Kirkuk leadership, along with 
the Kurdish governor.  It was important, the Charge 
underlined, to let the Arabs choose their own representative. 
 Shaways did not argue the point and pledged he would talk to 
KRG President Masood Barzani. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
Daoud on Electoral System and Political Alliances for the 
Next Elections 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
10.  (C/NF) As he has in previous meetings, Daoud mentioned 
Sistani's and his own preference for multiple district 
elections rather than a single district.  Daoud said the IECI 
was pushing back, complaining there was not enough time. 
Daoud believed pressure from Sistani might change their tune, 
however.  Daoud envisioned SCIRI going it alone in the next 
elections, while Fadhilah, Da'wa-Tanzim, and some Sadrists 
would form an Islamist bloc.  Da'wa-Ja'fari party could be on 
its own.  Chalabi would probably align with Sadrists and 
possibly even the Islamist bloc.  Allawi would be a 
non-player in the next elections, at most scoring ten seats, 
opined Daoud.  Allawi was pairing with small figures such as 
Chederchi and Pachachi.  Daoud claimed Allawi showed his true 
colors as a man who does not like to lose his grip on power 
after the last elections and has disappointed the people. 
 
 
11.  (C/NF) Comment:  On some broad issues, such as Iraq's 
identity and federalism as a principle, we sense much 
Kurd-Shia agreement.  That said, it is noteworthy that while 
Shaways doubted there was much Shia concern about Kirkuk, 
Qassim Daoud underlined that Kirkuk could be a sticking 
point.  Other Shia parliamentarians tell us the same thing. 
Our conclusion is that either the Kurds are tone deaf or the 
various negotiators have not yet really entered really 
detailed discussions on Kirkuk and structure of government. 
We are taking every opportunity to press home the message on 
revenue and ownership-sharing of natural resources.  Shaways, 
not surprisingly, offered no comments, given the position 
directly conflicts with the Kurds' own.  We hope to meet with 
Masud Barzani directly in the next week to deliver the same 
message.  Daoud appears to have been convinced and could 
exert some leverage on members of the committee, but we are 
raising this issue now with political leaders on all sides. 
Few seem to have thought much about the different angles of 
the issue yet, but our position is now understood by many of 
the constitution drafters. End Comment 
 
12.  (U) REO HILLA, REO BASRA, REO MOSUL, and REO KIRKUK, 
minimize considered. 
Satterfield