US embassy cable - 05CARACAS2088

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002088 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, MARR, VE 
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN MILITARY DOCTRINE STILL EVOLVING 
 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR 1.4 (D) 
 
1.  (C)  Summary.  The July 5 deadline President Hugo Chavez 
gave the Venezuelan Armed Forces to present its new doctrine 
has passed unfulfilled.  Notwithstanding, the GOV has begun 
trying to prepare for "asymmetrical warfare"--and the 
strategy's chief corollary, the establishment of a civilian 
reserve force--as the National Assembly scrambles to provide 
the doctrine legal foundation in the Organic Law of the 
National Armed Forces before its recess begins August 15. 
The National Assembly has added to the bill the creation of a 
"territorial guard," an ill-defined counterpart to the 
reserves, which Chavez mentioned in an early June television 
broadcast.  The GOV has had some success recruiting reserves, 
but numbers fall well short of the hundreds of thousands 
Chavez says have joined.  The reserves will remain a loosely 
organized force as the GOV and military struggles to 
anticipate Chavez's wishes and to interpret his plan for a 
new military doctrine.  End summary. 
 
2.  (U)  July 5, Venezuela's independence day, passed without 
the planned unveiling of Venezuela's new military doctrine. 
The doctrine will remain unofficial until Chavez signs off on 
the draft, which he sent back to the military for revision, 
new Defense Minister Orlando Maniglia told reporters.  The 
doctrine has not yet been codified in the Organic Law of the 
National Armed Forces, either.  The law cleared the defense 
committee July 5 after two readings and now goes back to the 
plenary chamber, according to press reports.  Opposition 
deputy Pedro Castillo said the pro-Chavez bloc, under 
pressure to pass the law quickly, agreed to an opposition 
request that articles relating to personnel matters be placed 
in another law, according to press reports. 
 
3.  (C)  In the meantime, the Venezuelan armed forces have 
been busy defining and preparing for "asymmetric warfare" 
since President Hugo Chavez announced the doctrinal shift in 
December 2004.  According to DAO reporting, the armed forces 
have held several conferences to plot strategies for war 
against an overwhelming conventional force such as the US 
military.  A columnist in a major opposition-leaning daily 
newspaper released an alleged Venezuelan military plan for 
asymmetrical warfare in which a hypothetical "Goliath" 
country gathered a coalition of states to get the OAS to 
approve an invasion of "David."  DAO and press reports also 
note that the military has conducted various maneuvers and 
exercises to prepare for guerrilla warfare.  Some exercises 
have involved members of the new reserve force; 40 PDVSA 
reservists participated in an antiaircraft artillery 
demonstration June 9. 
 
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Reserves of the Reserves 
------------------------ 
 
4.  (U)  Venezuelan National Assembly deputies working on the 
draft organic law outlined the creation of a "territorial 
guard," which aims to involve all Venezuelan citizens, 
according to July 7 press reports.  Chavez raised the issue 
of the territorial guard during his June 5 "Alo Presidente" 
broadcast, characterizing the force as the nation's third 
line of defense after the active duty military and the 
reserves.  Pro-Chavez defense committee chairman Eddis Rios 
(MVR) defined the territorial guard as a "complement" to the 
reserves.  Comparing the group to the anti-Nazi underground 
and the "Iraqi people," another pro-Chavez legislator 
described the territorial guard as a network of Venezuelans 
operating secretly from their homes to fight an invading 
force.  The guard would receive "guidance" and "instruction 
in conversations" rather than military training, according to 
the deputy. 
 
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Reserve Recruitment 
------------------- 
 
5.  (C)  The GOV, offering modest payments and free lunches, 
does not appear to be having difficulty recruiting reserves. 
Pollster Alfredo Keller told poloff 29 June that one-third of 
the Chavez supporters interviewed said they were prepared to 
join the reserves to fight the United States.  Some community 
leaders are supplementing the military's recruitment efforts 
by drumming up support for the reserves on an ad-hoc basis. 
 
 
For example, the head of a pro-Chavez collective in Aragua 
State, claiming to have over 800 volunteers, called on locals 
to come out and train as reserves in mid-April.  Members of 
GOV social missions are also enlisting in the reserve effort, 
according to press reports. 
 
6.  (U)  Chavez, however, has wildly exaggerated the number 
of Venezuelan reserves.  Boasting to "Alo Presidente" 
listeners July 3 that the US would regret any invasion of 
Venezuela "for 500 years," Chavez claimed his reserve force 
was already approaching 500,000 members while the United 
States had resorted to drafting civilians to support its Iraq 
mission.  Chavez then alleged--without explaining the 
discrepancy--that two million Venezuelans had registered as 
reservists.  He added July 3 that each reservist would have 
his own weapon, and no invader would be able to resist such a 
force "armed to the teeth."  Other GOV reports show the 
actual numbers of reserves are much lower.  Reserve commander 
Maj. Gen. Julio Quintero Viloria announced June 9 that over 
50,000 reserves would be trained during the second half of 
2005, according to press reports.  Navy commander Vice 
Admiral Armando Laguna Laguna told the press in late April 
the Navy currently had only 2,500 reservists. 
 
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Opposition Keeps Complaining 
---------------------------- 
 
7.  (U)  Opponents of President Chavez continued to criticize 
the reserves primarily as a sinister force organized to keep 
the active duty military loyal to Chavez and to intimidate 
Chavez's opponents.  An anti-Chavez daily argued in early 
June the most disturbing aspect of the draft law for GOV 
critics was that it placed reserves in charge of garrisons 
and active duty units during emergencies.  Social Christian 
party (COPEI) secretary general Cesar Perez Vivas told 
reporters he expected the reserves would be used to break up 
street protests, noting that some reservists marching in the 
July 5 independence day parade carried riot gear. 
 
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Comment 
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8.  (U)  The military and local leaders have begun trying to 
implement the new doctrine while the National Assembly is 
still drafting its legal framework.  All institutions 
involved are muddling through their attempts to define 
Chavez's vague plan.  For example, the National Assembly's 
use of fudge words like "guidance" and "instruction" instead 
of "training" shows legislators have not fully thought out 
the territorial guard concept.  Without clear direction, the 
reserve force is becoming a confusing mix of former military 
personnel and civilians trained either by other Chavez 
supporters or by soldiers whose social mission has become 
more important than their own military preparedness. 
Brownfield 
 
 
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      2005CARACA02088 - CONFIDENTIAL