US embassy cable - 02KATHMANDU1693

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001693 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS AND DS/OP/NEA 
STATE PLEASE ALSO PASS USAID - DCHA/OFDA 
LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL 
MANILA FOR USAID - DCHA/OFDA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PTER, PGOV, ASEC, CASC, NP, Maoist Insurgency 
SUBJECT: MORE EXPLOSIONS IN KATHMANDU AS STRIKE DATE NEARS 
 
REF: A. (A) KATHMANDU 1680 
     B. (B) KATHMANDU 1674 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (SBU) Maoist insurgents continued their campaign of 
bombings in urban areas of the Kathmandu Valley throughout a 
long holiday weekend August 30-September 1.  The explosions 
targeted businesses in the city, although two armed invasions 
of the homes of prominent politicians were also reported. 
Prime Minister Deuba, returning to the capital September 2, 
told reporters he had not yet decided whether to extend the 
state of emergency, which expired August 28.  The bombings, a 
preface to a Maoist general strike declared for September 16, 
demonstrate the insurgents' ability--even after nine months 
of a state of emergency--to penetrate the extensive security 
cordon within the fortified capital.  End summary. 
 
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BOMB BLASTS JOLT CAPITAL 
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2. (U) Suspected Maoist insurgents have followed up an August 
28 explosion at a shopping center in downtown Kathmandu (Ref 
B) with a string of similar incidents--almost daily--in busy 
commercial locations across the city.  As noted Ref B, the 
string of bombings coincides both with the expiration of the 
state of emergency, which had been in near-continuous 
operation since late November, and the onset of a 
Maoist-declared "agitation campaign" to publicize a general 
strike, or "bandh," the insurgents have scheduled for 
September 16.  Although only one person--an Army soldier 
attempting to defuse an explosive device August 29--has been 
killed in the blasts, the series of explosions is unnerving a 
capital made complacent by a comparatively quiet summer. 
 
3.  (U)  In the early morning of August 29 a Royal Nepal Army 
(RNA) soldier attempting to defuse a bomb in Patan, about 6 
km from the Embassy, was killed when the device detonated. 
The bomb had been wrapped in red cloth and placed near a 
utility pole at an intersection.  On August 30--a religious 
holiday in Nepal--another early-morning bomb damaged a 
municipal office in Lalitpur, approximately 6 km from the 
Embassy.  The RNA successfully defused another device left 
near a Nepal Telecommunications Corporation building in 
Kathmandu  August 31.  On September 1 separate explosions at 
an automobile showroom and near an ambulance parked outside 
the state-owned Salt Trading Corporation, both in downtown 
Kathmandu, caused extensive damage but no injuries.  As in 
the earlier incidents, the explosions occurred in the early 
morning well before normal business and school hours. 
 
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ATTACKS ON POLITICIANS 
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4.  (U)  Suspected Maoists have also staged attacks on the 
homes and persons of at least two politicians in the past few 
days.  On  August 30 insurgents set fire to the home of 
Minister of State for General Administration D.B. Lama in 
Nuwakot District, 70 km due north of Kathmandu.  The minister 
was not home at the time, and no one was injured in the 
blaze.  On September 1 the president of a local Nepali 
Congress district committee was shot by suspected insurgents 
at his home in Bhaktapur, 18 km east of Kathmandu.  He 
remains in critical condition at a Kathmandu hospital.  On 
August 28 unidentified gunmen invaded the Kathmandu home of a 
former MP of the Nepal Sadbhavana Party, injuring his wife 
and child, and making off with an unspecified amount of cash 
and property.  (Note:  While it seems probable that common 
criminals, rather than Maoists, performed the latter attack, 
the success of this bold, broad-daylight home invasion in the 
heart of Kathmandu is just one more sign of the overall 
deterioration of law and order brought on by the insurgency. 
End note.) 
 
 
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RETURN TO EMERGENCY? 
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5.  (U)  The Maoists' success in setting off a series of 
explosions in the heavily fortified capital has raised 
speculation that Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba will ask 
the King to re-impose the state of emergency.  (Note:  The 
emergency expired August 28, while the PM was on an official 
visit to EU headquarters in Brussels.  End note.)  Returning 
to Kathmandu September 2, Deuba told reporters at the airport 
that he would weigh carefully whether to ask the King to 
re-impose the emergency after he consulting with his Cabinet, 
members of the security forces, and others.  He assured 
reporters, as he has in the past, that the emergency, if 
re-imposed, will be lifted before general elections November 
13. 
 
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COMMENT 
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6.  (SBU)  Because of the early-morning timing of the 
explosions, it seems likely their purpose is to terrorize the 
general population and embarrass the security forces, rather 
than to kill and maim.  After a fairly quiet summer, many 
Kathmanduites--probably including many within the upper ranks 
of the security forces--were beginning to feel complacent, 
confident that the RNA and a nine-month state of emergency 
had successfully banished most of the insurgents to the 
hinterlands.  The insurgents' activities over the past few 
days have punctured some of that complacency.  After several 
costly defeats in May and June, the Maoists have launched no 
large-scale operations against the security forces.  It is 
too soon to tell if the losses have affected the Maoists' 
ability to mount such operations in the future, or if they 
have been lying low on purpose, regrouping, retraining and 
recruiting during the monsoon.  Regardless of the reasons for 
their lack of activity, the long period of quiet has put 
pressure on the Maoists to demonstrate to their own cadre, to 
the Army, and to the general public, that they can still 
wreak havoc--even via small-scale activities like the string 
of bombings.  Their ability to pull off such operations, 
literally under the noses of the Army and police in the 
heavily defended capital, is likely just enough to cow most 
of the urban population into adhering to the September 16 
strike and to mobilize public support for re-imposition of 
the emergency.  We expect the PM will soon ask the King to 
re-impose the state of emergency for at least the next two 
months. 
MALINOWSKI