US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV4269

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 004269 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2010 
TAGS: IS, KPAL, PREL, XF, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS, SETTLEMENTS 
SUBJECT: FINAL DECISION ON ARIEL SECURITY FENCE LIKELY NOT 
IMMINENT; FENCE ROUTING IN JERUSALEM REMAINS PROBLEMATIC 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
This cable has been cleared by ConGen Jerusalem. 
 
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Ariel Security Fence 
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1.  (C)   Ambassador asked MOD Director General Amos Yaron 
July 7 about press reports that the Israeli cabinet might 
decide a new route for the separation barrier around the 
Ariel bloc of settlements.  Yaron responded that Prime 
Minister Sharon is very unlikely to bring this issue to the 
cabinet now, for fear that disengagement opponents will latch 
onto it and create a government crisis.  Yaron thought that 
the decision on the Ariel barrier "finger" would not take 
place until the GOI was deep into the disengagement process. 
Yaron did confirm that the defense establishment has redrawn 
the routing of the "fingers" around Ariel and Kedumim. 
Whereas previously the barrier "fingers" encompassed both 
Ariel and the settlements of Kedumim, Emmanuel and Karnei 
Shomron, under the new proposal there are two separate 
"fingers" that extend into the West Bank: one that goes east 
to encompass the settlement of Ariel, and the other which 
goes east from Alfe Menashe east to encompass Karnei Shomron, 
Kedumim and the other small settlements in that salient. 
Yaron said that, by creating these two "fingers", substantial 
Palestinian contiguity had been created east of 
Qalqiliya/Habla.  On the other hand, the Alfe Menashe-Kedumim 
"finger" would severely inhibit Palestinian movement from 
Habla to the north.  Yaron thought that this could be 
resolved by building a tunnel for Palestinians under the 
barrier in this area. 
 
2.  (C)  Separately the Ambassador met with analysts from the 
Economic Cooperation Foundation (ECF), which has developed 
sophisticated mapping software specifically related to the 
fence.  According to the ECF understanding, the barrier's 
configuration around Ariel and Kedumim will have essentially 
no impact on the amount of territory fenced off, amounting to 
about 150 square kilometers.  It will also have little impact 
on the number of Palestinians captured inside the fence, with 
about 2,000 in both models.  Rather, according to ECF, it 
appears that the concept behind the new configuration is to 
take advantage of a new road planned between Alfe Menashe and 
Emmanuel, parts of which would have fallen outside the fence 
in the previous plan.  This new road will serve the settler 
community, while there may be plans to build a separate road 
to serve the Palestinian community. 
 
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Jerusalem 
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3.  (C)  ECF analysts pointed to the emerging separation 
barrier routing around Jerusalem as a far greater problem 
than that around Ariel and Kedumim.  They said that the 
current plan for the Jerusalem barrier involves 130 
kilometers of construction, only 4 kilometers of which 
actually lie on the Jerusalem municipal boundary and only 12 
kilometers of which are near the Jerusalem municipal 
boundary.  (ConGen note: The ConGen differs in this analysis, 
estimating that 48 kilometers of the Jerusalem-area barrier 
are built on or within 150 meters of Israel's 1967 expansion 
of Jerusalem's boundaries.  End note).  The barrier is being 
planned, according to ECF, to incorporate large areas outside 
the expanded Jerusalem municipal limits.  Whereas ECF said 
that land totaling only 5 square kilometers inside the 
municipal line has been left outside the barrier (excluding 
Shufat refugee camp and Kfar Aqab) the barrier incorporates 
95 square kilometers outside the expanded Jerusalem municipal 
limits.  The result of this plan will mean that the Jerusalem 
barrier will encompass 210 square kilometers, only 56 square 
kilometers of which are inside the green line. 
 
4.  (C)  The ECF analysts pointed to two specific problems 
with the barrier route. 
 
-- In northeast Jerusalem, the barrier has been extended to 
include the planned new settlement of Geva.  What this 
indicates, in their view, is an ultimate intention to connect 
the northern Jerusalem settlements, including Geva, to the 
settlements northeast of Jerusalem running from Adam to 
Psagot.  (ConGen note:  Current barrier construction includes 
Jerusalem settlements Pisgat Ze'ev and Neve Ya'akov, but not 
Geva.  The ConGen does not currently see evidence of the 
expansion that ECF refers to.  End note). 
 
-- The second problem relates to the apparent intention to 
create a belt of new "Israeli neighborhoods" within the 
barrier whose design is to change the demographic balance in 
Jerusalem.  These new neighborhoods include Wadi al-Joz, Har 
Homa, Kidmat Zion, plus two others.  (ConGen note:  While the 
Wadi al-Joz settlement is still an unapproved idea, and 
Kidmat Zion currently consists of only two buildings, Har 
Homa is the fastest growing settlement in Jerusalem, with 830 
housing units built since 2003 despite low housing demand and 
only 15 percent occupancy within the settlement.  End note). 
 
5.  (C)  The ECF staff believes that Deputy Prime Minister 
Ehud Olmert, who has been chairing an inter-ministerial 
committee to deal with the routing of the barrier, will 
present to the cabinet next week this plan and that the 
cabinet may approve it.  Olmert may recommend temporary 
crossing points between Jerusalem and the West Bank, which he 
will argue will not compromise future negotiations on the 
status of the city.  (Olmert confirmed this separately to the 
Ambassador, saying that his proposal may meet strong 
opposition from stalwalt Likud members who want to concretize 
Israel's hold on the expanded Jerusalem with permanent 
crossing points).  According to ECF, Israeli "facts on the 
ground" will continue to worsen the situation as new 
settlement neighborhoods expand. 
 
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The South 
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6.  (C)  ECF believes that the Israeli defense establishment, 
under pressure from Sharon, is considering a second barrier 
north of the planned southern routing to defend the road 
between Yattir and Kiryat Arba.  There are some Palestinians 
who will live in this enclosed area, which also includes 
several Israeli settlements.  The enclosed area itself 
comprises 2.2 percent of the entire West Bank. 
 
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KURTZER