US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV4265

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 TEL AVIV 004265 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA, NEA/PPD 
 
WHITE HOUSE FOR PRESS OFFICE, SIT ROOM 
NSC FOR NEA STAFF 
 
JERUSALEM ALSO FOR ICD 
LONDON ALSO FOR HKANONA AND POL 
PARIS ALSO FOR POL 
ROME FOR MFO 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: IS, KMDR, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, MEDIA REACTION REPORT 
SUBJECT: SPECIAL MEDIA REACTION: WAKING UP TO REALITY IN GAZA: 
RECENT MEDIA COMMENTARY ON DISENGAGEMENT PART 2 
 
 
1.  Summary:  As the disengagement battle escalates on the 
ground, with violent confrontations in Gaza resulting in a 
temporary IDF closure of the Gush Katif settlement bloc, anti- 
disengagement roadblocks throughout the country, and the first 
case of a "conscientious objector," Israeli media commentary and 
analysis debates the success or lack thereof of the anti- 
disengagement activists' tactics, their ideological motivation as 
well as the Israeli government's preparedness to carry out the 
plan.  Public support for disengagement, the reality of which 
seems to finally be seeping in, continues to decrease, though 
most polls still show a slight majority in favor, as the 
countdown to disengagement draws near.  End Summary. 
 
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"The Opening Shot Of Disengagement" 
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2.  Concern over escalating violence, especially since the actual 
evacuation is not slated to begin for over a month, is evidenced 
by the numerous commentaries on this issue.  On June 30, military 
correspondent Amos Harel wrote on page one of independent, left- 
leaning Ha'aretz: "If anyone was still harboring doubts, along 
came Wednesday's day of battles throughout the country and laid 
them to rest: the disengagement has arrived.... The violence is 
coming from the pullout opponents, and it is dictating the nature 
of the confrontation.  The IDF and police are gradually 
streamlining their responses to riots, but the events of recent 
days constitute a worrying prelude ahead of the real thing in 
August."  Military correspondent Alex Fishman wrote on page one 
of mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot Aharonot on July 1: "It 
took the army time to realize that the people sitting in the Maoz 
Hayam Hotel [in Gush Katif] had not come to show their opposition 
to disengagement. They had come to provoke the Palestinians, to 
create provocations and to push the Palestinians into responding 
with violence, to ignite the Gaza Strip, to involve the IDF in 
fighting masses of Palestinians, and to enforce their wish to 
halt disengagement....Disengagement is here." 
 
3.  Residents of Gush Katif, long-clinging to faith and routine 
in the face of imminent evacuation under Sharon's disengagement 
plan, were greeted with a sharp wake up call last week as Israeli 
Defense Forces, in an effort to prevent in influx of 
disengagement opponents to Gush Katif, imposed a 24-hour closure 
on the area.  Nadav Shragai writes in Ha'aretz on July 8, "Many 
of the residents suddenly discovered that belief is one thing and 
reality another; that the evacuation is closer than they had 
imagined. In fact, that it is already here, more threatening and 
concrete than ever, and that their total belief was perhaps a bit 
blind." 
 
4.  On July 6, leading media (banners in Jerusalem Post and 
Hatzofe) reported that, in what it described as the "opening 
shot" of disengagement, the Yesha Council of Jewish Settlements 
in the Territories on Tuesday summoned its supporters to a three- 
day march on Gush Katif beginning on July 18 to "cancel the 
expulsion."  It has been reported frequently in recent weeks that 
the government, fearing that many demonstrators will stay in the 
area to be evacuated, is considering closing the Gaza Strip to 
non-residents ahead of schedule and has already done so once. 
One June 23, Kseniya Svetlova (Arab affairs journalist, Channel 
Israel Plus) wrote in popular, pluralist Russian-language Novosty 
Nedely, "Everything that is going on now, including the 
unsuccessful Sharon-Abu Mazen meeting in Jerusalem, is ... a 
prelude to the explosion that would inevitably take place. ... 
Today, when only two months are left before the disengagement, it 
is obvious that we are speeding towards ... a very dangerous 
period of time, where we could get easily stuck..." 
5.  Delving beyond the protestors' tactical maneuvers, to examine 
their ideological motivation and the slow response from 
disengagement supporters, liberal op-ed writer Yael Paz-Melamed 
wrote in popular, pluralist Maariv on June 23: "The difference -- 
the ostensibly substantive difference -- between the rallying of 
the Right and the silence and apathetic reaction of the Left is 
not an indicator of how strongly the Left is committed to its 
ideology.  It is essentially an indicator of the ideology itself. 
The worldview of the moderate Left, to which many people in the 
center of the political spectrum also subscribe, is one of 
commitment to life, even at the cost of land and walls [such as 
the Western wall].  Life is the supreme value.[...]The right-wing 
camp, and particularly the extreme Right, believes that almost 
anything is permissible for the sake of the Land of Israel -- to 
break laws, to disrupt normal life, to deprive another people of 
liberties, to humiliate them, to crush them into the dust..." 
Nahum Barnea in Yediot Ahronot on June 27, explains why the blues 
(pro-disengagement supporters) are, to date, losing the recently 
dubbed war of the colors - over a million orange ribbons 
distributed compared to less than half a million blue.  "The gap 
is not only logistic (difficulty in obtaining blue ribbons at low 
cost). It is real.  According to polls, most Israelis support 
disengagement.  But it is an indifferent, superficial support, 
with reservations, support from afar, without any emotional 
involvement.  Opposition to disengagement is a completely 
different matter.  It makes a statement.  It is defiant.  It has 
sex appeal." 
 
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"The Battle for Public Opinion" 
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6.  Commenting on how the tactics adopted by disengagement 
opponents might be costing them the battle for public opinion, 
Deputy Editor-in-Chief Avi Bettelheim wrote on page one of 
popular, pluralist Maariv on June 30: "On Wednesday, as I watched 
the scenes from the blocked roads on television, I was more sure 
than ever that the entire [disengagement] was going to be all 
right, if only because the settlers are very close to making the 
rest of the public sick and tired of them -- and when that 
happens, their battle will become insignificant, and will be 
unable to change anything of the government's original plan for 
the evacuation of the Gaza Strip and northern Samaria [the 
northernmost part of the West Bank]...."  Continuing in this 
trend, Buki Naeh writes in Yediot Ahronot on June 30, "I am no 
longer your friend.  What you are doing is not ideology...In the 
name of your slogan, `A Jew does not expel a Jew,' then a Jew 
also does not kill a Jew - even if he lives in Ramat Gan....I 
can't forgive you for the stone throwing yesterday in Gush Katif 
at the wounded Arab who was lying on the ground.  You are not 
Jews.  In my Jewish people there are no such individuals." Nadav 
Shragai adds in Ha'aretz on July 8, referring to the 24-hour 
closure of Gush Katif last week, "In the sphere of external 
influence, the publicity line of Gush Katif sustained a serious 
setback, perhaps a mortal one.  If the parliamentary battle was 
lost by the opponents of disengagement back in March, it is 
definitely possible that the battle for public opinion was lost 
last week....The destruction was lightning fast.  Regaining 
public support will take a great deal of time, which the anti- 
disengagement activists do not have." 
 
7.  Sharon's true motives are called into question by varied 
sources.  On July 7, correspondent Dov Kontorer wrote in 
conservative, Russian-language Vesty: "The emergency atmosphere 
being spread in Israel is intended to make up for the decision 
regarding the deportation of Jews from Gaza and northern Samaria 
[the northern part of the West Bank], which obviously lacks 
legitimacy....  Ariel Sharon demands that an even tougher 
suppression of the growing resistance movement....  There is no 
place for dialog and civil harmony ... in Sharon's new scheme, 
which is totally oriented toward scaring the disengagement 
opponents.  The latter, who made a conscious choice in favor of a 
non-violent opposition to the Israeli government's destructive 
plans, are facing...open repression and a biased coverage in the 
local and international press."  Settler leader Israel Harel 
wrote in Ha'aretz  on June 23: "Many of those who supported the 
disengagement yesterday are today voicing serious doubts as to 
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's true motives and the prices -- 
strategic, ideological and human -- that we are going to pay. 
With the terror continuing, coupled with threats that if Sharon 
is slow in implementing additional withdrawals, the terror of the 
past years will be just a preface to the true war of terror, it 
is natural for people to be changing their positions....." 
 
8. Arabic language media, reflecting the opinion of the Arab 
citizens of Israel, have generally been in favor of the 
disengagement, though they also question the true motivation 
behind the plan.  According to the June Peace Index poll, 
Ha'aretz reports on July 7, that among the Arab citizens of 
Israel, "the rate of support for disengagement is considerably 
higher than in the Jewish population - 74 percent in favor and 24 
percent against." On June 24, columnist Ahmad Khatib wrote in far 
left leaning daily Arabic Language Al-Ittihad:".. The withdrawal 
from Gaza is not really a withdrawal but rather fleeing from a 
harsh and an expensive reality for the occupation.. Gaza consists 
of less than one and half percent of the historical Palestine and 
after more than half a century of sacrifices, I don't see any 
accomplishment or profit coming out of the occupation's desertion 
of only one and a half percent out of the `sea to the river' 
project.  We should be aware that historically the colonial 
occupation had economical motives behind their stay, and 
accordingly, Gaza has nothing to offer the occupation.." 
 
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"Political Refusal Is Nothing To Be Proud Of" 
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9.  Uncertainty remains as to how many soldiers will refuse 
orders to carry out the evacuation, and what fate these 
refuseniks will meet.  Discussion of the issue of these 
"conscientious objectors" has been extremely widespread in the 
media. The Israeli public got a hint of what might come as Avi 
Bieber became the first soldier to refuse a direct order to 
evacuate settler protestors from Gaza.  The conservative, 
independent Jerusalem Post editorialized on June 28 on this 
topic:  "Political refusal is nothing to be proud of, and both 
sides know it.  Disengagement opponents who are now blithely 
urging refusal were the first to be appalled at left-wing calls 
to refuse to serve in the territories.... The refuser, more than 
advancing his own cause, is undermining the institutions on which 
we all depend for our lives, our security, and our existence.... 
Whether refusal comes from ideology or ignorance, our society 
must defend itself not only by punishing the perpetrators, but by 
maintaining the stigma against political refusal and bolstering 
democratic values through civic education.  Defenders of 
democracy need as much courage, tenacity and creativity as those 
who, deliberately or through ignorance, would undermine what we 
must all hold most dear." 
 
10.  According to some opinion makers, the writing has been on 
the wall, as well as in the press, for quite some time. Yaron 
London writes in Yediot Ahronot on June 30, "The warning was 
written in this newspaper a few months ago: `If a large number of 
religious soldiers heed their rabbis, who are inciting them to 
disobey orders, it will become apparent that those who made dire 
predictions about their behavior on the day a contradiction 
arises between the command of the state and the command of their 
teachers were right....The secular public, which appreciates the 
great contribution of the religious public to the defense forces, 
may reach the conclusion that it is worth waiving this 
contribution, since its harm outweighs its benefit.'" 
 
11.  Comment:  As the countdown to disengagement progresses, the 
growing battle on the street is being reflected in media 
commentary and opinion.  Disengagement opponents have ramped up 
efforts to prevent evacuation at all costs, which might be 
costing them the public's sympathy as demonstrations grow more 
violent.  Though the public remains doubtful as to the 
government's preparedness for the logistics of evacuation - how 
to transport people and belongings, to where to transport them, 
what to do with what remains behind, etc, the voices of those 
that initially doubted the reality of disengagement are waning. 
The public appears to be slowly adjusting to the reality of 
disengagement, a messy, incomplete, perhaps violent and 
confrontational disengagement, but a disengagement nonetheless. 
End comment.