US embassy cable - 05LAGOS1073

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 001073 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2010 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, NI 
SUBJECT:  NATIONAL POLITICAL REFORM 
CONFERENCE 
 
REF: LAGOS 947 
 
Classified by Acting CG William Howe for reasons 1.4 (b) and 
(d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  The National Political Reform Conference 
(NPRC) remains deadlocked over the issues of resource 
control and the rotation and length of presidential power 
(reftel).  July 11 has been set for the resumption of 
talks, but positions have hardened, increasingly along 
ethnic fault-lines, and there is no guarantee the 
conference will resume when scheduled.  The South-South has 
shown significant political maturity and sophistication, 
forging useful alliances to advance its core issue  - 
resource control. 
 
2.  (C) Summary Continued:  Having scored two home runs in as 
many days with debt relief and the Supreme Court electoral 
decision, President Obasanjo is stronger politically than 
perhaps ever in his tenure.  He can thus afford to let the 
NPRC stew for a while. The increasingly raw North-South 
strains will hurt presidential aspirants Buhari, Babangida, 
and Atiku more over the long term than they currently 
blemish the Obasanjo presidency.  However, resource control 
won,t be moved easily off the political front page and 
there is always the risk of non-conference participants, 
i.e. the militias, deciding the agenda is not advancing far 
or quickly enough.  End Summary. 
 
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North and South-South Dig In 
---------------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) On June 14, South-South delegates walked out of 
the NPRC after conference members adopted a proposal to 
increase the derivation given to oil producing states from 
the prevailing 13 to 17 percent (reftel).  South-South 
delegates tell us the proposal was erroneously adopted. 
They insist there was no consensus on the 17 percent 
figure, only agreement to talk about 17 percent.  Although 
one of the six geo-political zones was missing from the 
conference, the chair continued with the next order of 
business - rotation and length of presidential power.  When 
delegates affirmed two-term mandates with power rotating 
dichotomously between the North and South, the South-East 
block and some members of the South-West stormed out in 
protest, compelling the chair to adjourn the conference. 
 
4.  (SBU) In the two weeks following adjournment, positions 
have hardened.   While previously most northern delegates 
appeared reconciled to the four percent oil derivation 
increase, the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) is now 
publicly calling on northern delegates to reject any 
increase, calling the 17 percent proposal "excessive 
generosity."  Other prominent northern leaders have been 
similarly dismissive of the South-South demand.  North-West 
leader Alhaji Dikko has reportedly threatened to 
withdraw his zone from the conference if the topic is 
re-opened. 
 
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Horse - Trading 
--------------- 
 
5.  (C ) The South-East has made common cause with the 
South-South.  The South-South is supporting the South-East,s 
desire to increase its girth by one state.  (Note:  The 
South-East is the only zone to have five states; all other 
zones contain six states, with the exception of the North- 
East which has seven.)  In exchange for the South-East,s 
support on resource control, there is tacit understanding 
with the South-South that when the presidency rotates 
southward, the South-East will "go first."  As part of the 
horse-trading, it is also possible the South-South has 
ceded to the South-East its 2007 vice presidential 
aspirations. 
 
6.  (C) The South-West has been a more cagey negotiating 
partner for the South-South.  South-South delegates tell us 
in the early days of the conference, the South-West 
supported increased resource control.  Later, delegates 
began to waffle.  South-South delegates expressed anger and 
disappointment at this perceived turnabout.  "We can 
understand the Middle Belt,s (North-Central) equivocation, 
they have been squashed under northern control for so long, 
it is hard for them to break free.  However, there was no 
reason for the South-West to betray us." 
 
7.  (C) On June 27, twelve days after the conference was 
brought to a halt, the South-West reversed course and 
pledged its support for the South-South demand.  This 
turnabout came after a presidential meeting with Southern 
governors and subsequent meetings between South-West 
governors and their delegates, leading some to suspect the 
President influenced the decision.  A South-South delegate 
told us the South-West "returned to the fold" with the aim 
of securing support for a single presidential term of five 
or six years, as well as backing for presidential rotation 
through the six zones.  This would guarantee the presidency 
eventually returns to the South-West.  Obasanjo skeptics 
have held all along that the President intended to use the 
NPRC to constitutionally give himself new life - either 
through a new six-year term or through an extension of 
tenure in accordance with the new rules.  That the idea has 
surfaced yet again, and seemingly at Obasanjo,s behest, has 
them saying, "I told you so." 
 
8.  (C) Having decided to prioritize resource control, the 
South-South is indifferent on the issue of a 
single presidential term. However, it recognizes it as an 
important bargaining chit.  If the North supports increased 
oil derivations, the South-South will abandon the South-West 
and back the North,s desire for the status quo of two terms. 
On the other hand, if the North refuses to increase the 
derivation, the South-South will use the term 
limit chit to shore up its alliance with the South-West and 
try to present a united southern front against the North. 
 
9. (C) The South-East would probably prefer the status quo 
of two terms so that when the zone gets "its turn," it can 
at least aspire for a full eight years.  However, the 
length of tenure takes a back-seat to getting the mandate 
itself.  Thus, the South-East is malleable on this issue. 
It is keener to see that the final conference report 
recommend power rotate among the six zones, thus 
guaranteeing its turn. The alliance between the South-South 
and South-East is reportedly strong, with both blocks 
believing they can trust the word of the other. 
 
10. (C) Emboldened by the steadfast South-East support, 
growing civil society backing, and now tenuous South-West 
endorsement, the South-South is sticking (at least 
publicly) to its position that the derivation be increased 
to 25 percent immediately, with graduated increments up to 
50 percent over a defined time period.  South-South 
delegates are somewhat surprised by their own success. 
Delegates confide that when they meet in the NPRC 
corridors, they slap each other on the back, scarcely able 
to believe that they have been able to dominate the 
conference with their issue. 
 
11. (C) Privately, some South-South delegates have told us 
they could countenance less than 25 percent as long as 
there is provision for future increases.  However, this 
position would have to be proposed by the North and it 
would have to be presented with far less "arrogance" than 
has characterized the debate thus far.  "Approach matters. 
The North cannot behave as if this is its  gift, to us." 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Ethnic Divisions Rubbed Raw - 
Have the Nigerians Seen Movie "Crash"? 
--------------------------------------- 
 
12. (C) In his speech inaugurating the NPRC, President 
Obasanjo expressed hope the conference would strengthen the 
body politic and Nigeria,s national identity.  Though the 
final verdict is still out, the conference has veered far 
off course from that objective.  Subcutaneous ethnic 
tensions have erupted and been rubbed raw.  Slurs and 
accusations of arrogance and chauvinism have flown in all 
directions:  The Yorubas of the South-West are shifty.  The 
Hausa/Fulani of the North East and North West are lazy 
overlords who believe ruling their divine right.  The 
ethnic minorities comprising the Middle Belt (North 
Central) are weak slaves, unable to break away from their 
turbaned masters.  The crafty Igbo of the South East are 
good for trading, but not fit for holding the nation,s 
highest office.  Igbos are incapable of organizing 
themselves, let alone a country.  The Ijaw and other 
minorities of the South-South are shady, corrupt, 
spendthrifts undeserving of more money, having squandered 
that which has already been given them. 
 
13. (SBU) A few political activists and pundits have urged 
delegates transcend this "tribalism."  One such activist 
recently criticized delegates of viewing Nigeria not as a 
country, but as "a divided land where everyone has to make 
sure their area is taken care of, and the rest can go to 
Hell."   The activist encouraged delegates to shelve ethnic 
identities and consider what reforms are best for the 
nation, not "which group is  giving, what to the other." 
 
14. (C) However, delegates tell us nerves are exposed. 
Conference discourse has been conducted in ethnic code. 
One delegate told us that even if agreement were reached on 
resource control, it would represent a "papering-over" of 
Nigeria,s real crisis - unresolved ethnic discord. 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
15. (C) President Obasanjo and the South-South are both in 
the cat-bird,s seat, but for different reasons.  The 
president's popular standing has improved because of his 
anti-corruption moves in recent months, success in securing 
debt relief after six years of effort, and most recently 
the Supreme Court decision validating his 2003 election. 
These successes have bought Obasanjo both time and 
political capital.  The President can thus afford to let 
the conference stew a while. In fact, doing so may better 
serve his long-term interests.  The North-South tensions 
laid bare by the conference hurt Buhari, Babangida, and 
Atiku more than they do Obasanjo, as those three northern 
politicians need good northern-southern relations for their 
2007 presidential runs.  However, pushing for a single 
presidential term, with the veiled implication that 
Obasanjo could be the first beneficiary either in the form 
of a new mandate or extension of time, could be an over 
stretch. 
 
16. (C) The South-South has played this conference well 
thus far.  The zone has kept trained on its goal of increased 
resource control, and has demonstrated the political 
maturity and sophistication necessary to advance that 
objective by forging strategic alliances.  Resource 
control is an idea whose time has come in the Nigerian 
political context.  The South-South success in dominating 
the conference is all the more remarkable when we recall 
that Obasanjo originally proscribed debate on resource 
control as a "no-go" zone. However this success is 
double-edged.  South-South delegates have raised 
expectations at home - perhaps more so than they can 
deliver.  While delegates might be willing to go home with 
something between the 17 and 25 percent range, the reaction 
from the homestead, particularly from the militias, is less 
clear.  The South-South will walk away from this conference 
with some measure of increase in the oil derivation 
formula.  What,s questionable is whether it will be 
enough.  End Comment. 
 
17. This cable has been cleared by Embassy Abuja. 
HOWE