US embassy cable - 02ABUJA2547

S E C R E T ABUJA 002547 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/12 
TAGS: PGOV, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: INTRIGUE AT ASO ROCK? 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reason 1.5 (B and D) 
 
 
1.  (S) In a stunning 8/26 revelation, a member of President 
Obasanjo's inner circle told the Ambassador, in strictest 
confidence, that Vice President Atiku Abubakar is the moving 
force behind current efforts to impeach President Obasanjo.  The 
source said that Atiku hatched the plot during his recent two 
week absence from Nigeria, ostensibly for a vacation in the 
United States, and he is now paying handsome sums to agents in 
the National Assembly to implement it.  Atiku also has promised 
Senate President Anyim Pius Anyim that he would be Atiku's 
choice for Vice Presidential running mate, if the impeachment 
plan succeeds.  Atiku, the source said, plans to break with 
Obasanjo in September, and announce his independent candidacy to 
seek the PDP presidential nomination.  (Comment: The local media 
is now reporting that Atiku is no longer dismissing suggestions 
that he might run, but instead is saying that "Allah will 
decide."  End comment.) 
 
 
2.  (S) Calling Atiku an ingrate and "terrible man," the source 
said that Obasanjo was initially devastated but has now 
regrouped and plans to counter Atiku's move against him.  The 
plan involves undermining Atiku's stature and credibility in the 
PDP, although how Obasanjo would do this was not made clear. 
 
 
3.  (S) Asked if Ibrahim Babangida had a hand in these 
machinations, the source said that Babangida was not associated 
with Atiku's plot, but was planning to back National Security 
Advisor Aliyu Mohammed as his surrogate in the bid for the 
Presidency.  IBB himself would not run. 
 
 
4.  (S) Comment: Often it is difficult to discern fact from 
fiction in Nigerian politics.  The source of this report, 
however, is impeccable and is well positioned to know of any and 
all intrigues at Aso Rock.  At the same time, this interlocutor 
is usually in step with Obasanjo's thinking, and if he believes 
in this turn of events, Obasanjo likely believes it as well. 
 
 
5.  (S) If this information is true, Obasanjo's bid for 
renomination and reelection has suffered a most serious blow. 
He will find it extremely difficult to win an election without 
Atiku's political machine.  If word gets out that Atiku 
engineered this, many people will commend him for trying to 
derail Obasanjo, but an equal number, if not more, will see him 
as a Brutus who should neither be trusted nor rewarded 
politically.   By undermining Obasanjo, Atiku also taints 
himself.  Babangida, moreover, cannot allow Atiku to run and 
win.  Major defections at the Aso Rock would be the death knell 
for Obasanjo's regime.  The walls around Obasanjo may be 
starting to crumble. 
 
 
JETER