US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI5226

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 005226 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2015 
TAGS: PTER, PREL, PGOV, IN, PK, INDO-PAK 
SUBJECT: PM: SPIKE IN TERRORISM COULD THREATEN INDO-PAK 
RAPPROCHEMENT 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 5165 
 
     B. NEW DELHI 4915 
     C. NEW DELHI 4689 
 
Classified By: Charge Bob Blake, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: In addition to the July 6 attack in Ayodhya, 
senior J&K politicians and civilian officials are 
increasingly under terrorist attack, and a long string of 
bombings in Kashmir is growing more lethal.  The recent 
incidents in J&K, coupled with the Ayodhya attack (Ref A), 
led to PM Singh's most pointed public comments on Pakistani 
support for cross-border terrorism since he took office, 
including his warning that continued attacks could jeopardize 
the peace process.  Observers commented that a disruption in 
Indo-Pak ties is exactly what the terrorists desire.  GOI 
infiltration estimates show 2005 levels still below those for 
2004, but the summer months are predictably leading to a 
spike in those numbers as well.  Delhi-based analysts have 
begun to speculate that Islamabad may be pulling the strings 
to remind India that it maintains a robust capability to 
direct terrorist attacks if progress wanes on Kashmir.  End 
Summary. 
 
PM Warns Islamabad 
------------------ 
 
2.  (C) Whether the impetus comes from disaffected terrorists 
or from Islamabad, the spike in terrorist violence has 
steeled New Delhi's resolve.  PM Manmohan Singh told 
reporters before his July 6 flight to the G-8 Summit "the 
terror attack in Ayodhya was a major incident, and there was 
no doubt that the infrastructure for terrorism (in Pakistan) 
is by and large intact."  "These incidents, if they are 
repeated, have the potential to disrupt the peace process," 
he added.  This measured statement is the closest the PM has 
come to blaming Pakistan for an attack since he came to 
office over a year ago, although he declined to comment 
further on cross-border terrorism.  The PM broke his silence 
in the wake of Ayodhya and a rising tide of high-profile 
attacks in J&K, as detailed in paras 3-4. 
 
Terrorists Target J&K Motorcades 
-------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Three recent high-profile assassination attempts on 
J&K state ministers mark a new escalation of violence there. 
Additional Director General of Police (J&K) Kuldeep Khoda 
theorized that these attacks were designed to demonstrate 
that the terrorist groups retain the capability to attack 
these well-protected civilian targets: 
 
-- Police arrested a suspected Hizbul Mujahedeen terrorist on 
June 27 in Anantnag shortly before J&K Minister of State for 
Home Affairs AR Veeri was to make a public address. 
 
-- Rural Development Minister and State Congress Party 
President Peerzada Mohammad Sayeed, along with Roads and 
Buildings Minister Ghulam Ahmed Mir and two state 
legislators, narrowly avoided a July 4 IED blast in Srinagar 
as they were driving together to a meeting. 
 
-- On July 6, attackers raked Irrigation and Flood Control 
Minister Sayed Bashir Ahmed's bulletproof car with automatic 
weapons fire, wounding several of his security detail and a 
civilian, although the Minister emerged unscathed. 
 
Surge in Lethal J&K Bomb Attacks 
-------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) There were approximately 70 explosion attacks in J&K 
during the first six months of 2005, according to the 
Institute for Conflict Management's database.  Most of these 
caused no fatalities, none killed more than three people, and 
many caused no casualties at all.  The month of May, however, 
saw five explosions wounding more than 20 civilians each. 
The recent surge in lethal bomb attacks include the following: 
 
-- June 13, Pulwama township (Ref C): 15 killed and over 100 
injured when a car bomb detonated in front of a school near a 
crowded marketplace.  No group claimed responsibility. 
 
-- June 24, Srinagar: 9 soldiers killed and over 20 injured 
after an RDX-laden car detonated near their bus.  Hizbul 
Mujahedeen claimed responsibility. 
 
-- June 29, Srinagar: 10 wounded during a grenade attack in 
Srinagar's city center.  No group claimed responsibility. 
 
GOI Says Infiltration Rising 
---------------------------- 
5.  (C) A public Home Ministry report estimated that 60 
terrorists crossed the LoC into J&K in June after frozen 
passes along the LoC cleared, up from 37 in May.  Kashmir 
police official Khoda told us that the J&K Police 
infiltration estimates for 2005 were still well below those 
for 2004 on a month-on-month basis, but noted that there was 
a dramatic seasonal upswing from April to May, albeit still 
below 2004 figures.  NDTV Defense Correspondent Col. (ret.) 
Ajai Shukla, who visited Kashmir in June, explained that 
weather and terrorists had significantly degraded the LoC 
fence, facilitating infiltration; he added that traps set by 
the Army (i.e. punji sticks) wounded more soldiers than they 
did terrorists. 
 
Possible Strains on Indo-Pak Rapprochement as a Result 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
6.  (C) Khoda and our journalist contacts in Srinagar tell us 
that pro-Pakistan separatist hardliner SAS Geelani and Hizbul 
Mujahedeen supremo Syed Salahuddin "are not comfortable with 
the Indo-Pak dialogue" and fear they are being sidelined (Ref 
B).  They opine that the escalation in high-profile and 
lethal attacks is a "spoiler's move" to set back or disrupt 
rapprochement. 
 
7.  (C) However, they also say they cannot rule out that the 
increase in violence is a reminder from Islamabad that it can 
ramp up terrorism if the peace process fails to advance their 
Kashmir agenda.  Tahir Mohi-ud-din, editor of J&K's most 
widely circulated weekly "Chattan," suggested to us that if 
the attacks were not driven by "terrorist spoilers," then 
"people from across the border want to keep pressure on the 
dialogue."  "Kashmir Images" editor Bashir Manzar echoed that 
the attacks might be a signal that "Pakistan wants to show 
its bargaining chip." 
 
Comment: GOI Patience Being Tested 
---------------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) The PM's pointed remarks to Islamabad on terrorism 
signal his frustration that improving bilateral atmospherics 
are not translating into a better security situation in J&K. 
Given the PM's reluctance overtly to reference cross-border 
terrorism in the two Singh-Musharraf joint statements, his 
statement represents a stronger warning than the words 
themselves suggest.  Calling Ayodhya a "major incident" puts 
Islamabad on warning that its goodwill with Delhi is not 
inexhaustible.  Saying that more spectacular attacks could 
derail the peace process signals Musharraf that rapprochement 
is not yet "irreversible" as far as the PM is concerned. 
BLAKE