US embassy cable - 02HARARE1992

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001992 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: NEW CABINET "ROTTEN TO THE CORE" 
 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Kimberly Jemison.  Reasons: 1.5 (B) an 
d (D). 
 
Summary 
-------- 
 
1.  (C)  In an August 26 meeting, Eddison Zvobgo, an elder 
statesman in ZANU-PF, provided insight into the Cabinet 
reshuffle and pressure points for the international community 
to pursue and he commented on the food situation, the Public 
Order and Security Act, and the likelihood of a new 
constitutional amendment to name a successor.  Zvobgo said 
the Cabinet and ZANU-PF politburo function merely as rubber 
stamps for Mugabe's decisions and he predicted the political 
and economic crisis will worsen.  He was unsure of next steps 
from the international community but did say that comments 
akin to those delivered by Assistant Secretary Kansteiner and 
using NEPAD as leverage to encourage other African leaders to 
do more on Zimbabwe would go a long way towards isolating and 
increasing pressure on Mugabe.  He also claimed that South 
Africa has been providing Zimbabwe with electricity free of 
charge for the last six months.         End Summary. 
 
Cabinet Reshuffle 
----------------- 
 
2. (C) On August 26, Polchief and Poloff met with Eddison 
Zvobgo, an elder statesman in the ruling party who has been 
estranged from  President Mugabe since 2000.   Zvobgo said 
the new cabinet is "rotten to the core" and is comprised 
exclusively of yes-men and yes-women, a sign that the 
political and economic crises will get worse.  According to 
Zvobgo, the Cabinet and ZANU-PF politburo now function merely 
as rubber stamps for Mugabe's decisions, and never engage in 
any genuine discussions of how to extricate Zimbabwe from its 
current plight. 
 
Succession Scenarios 
-------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Polchief noted the requirement in Zimbabwe's 
constitution that an election be held within 90 days after 
the presidency becomes vacant, and asked whether President 
Mugabe intends to push through an amendment allowing his 
successor to fill out the remaining years of his mandate. 
Zvobgo, who chairs Parliament's legal committee, was 
dismissive, saying that the ruling party does not have the 
two-thirds majority in Parliament necessary for approval of 
such an amendment.  All ZANU-PF MPs would likely vote in 
favor, Zvobgo thought, but it was unlikely that any MDC 
parliamentarians would cross the aisle.  (Comment:  We have 
heard from several sources that the ruling party is trying, 
with financial inducements, to lure several MDC legislators 
to support such an amendment.  We would not be surprised if 
Zvobgo is unaware of such efforts.  End Comment.)  Since such 
an effort would almost certainly fail, Zvobgo predicted, 
Mugabe likely will serve his full six-year term.  Although 
ZANU-PF had stolen the presidential election, Mugabe and his 
inner circle are not convinced they could steal another one. 
 
 
Food Shortages 
-------------- 
 
4.  (C) Zvobgo described the food situation in his home 
constituency of Masvingo south as "frightening" and said the 
shortages in most  rural areas of Masvingo province are 
"terrible and getting worse."  He was frustrated with his 
inability to help his hungry constituents and criticized the 
GOZ's Grain Marketing Board for attempting to provide food 
assistance only to ZANU-PF supporters.  He claimed that 
ZANU-PF supporters are bearing the brunt of food shortages, 
since they are concentrated in rural districts, while MDC 
supporters, concentrated primarily in urban areas, are in 
much better shape.     Zvobgo expressed hope that the food 
crisis would soon overwhelm GOZ's capacity to respond, 
resulting in NGO's carrying the predominant load in 
distributing food, a development he anticipated would 
minimize incidents of people going hungry because of their 
political affiliation. 
 
Selective application of rule of law 
------------------------------------ 
 
5.  (C) Zvobgo condemned the GOZ's repression of the 
opposition MDC and its supporters, saying the degree of 
intolerance is "absolutely amazing."  He said the Public 
Order and Security Act requires only that groups "notify" 
police four days in advance of any public gathering, but 
police are interpreting this provision as giving them the 
right to grant or deny permission for such events.  In recent 
weeks, Zvobgo said, police are not allowing any MDC meetings 
or rallies to take place.  He also lamented continued 
selective application of the law, noting that ZANU-PF 
supporters who break the law usually go scot-free. 
 
Pressure points 
--------------- 
 
6. (C) Zvobgo said remarks of the kind delivered recently by 
Assistant Secretary Kansteiner are helpful in isolating and 
increasing pressure on Mugabe.  Kansteiner's comments, he 
said, engendered anger and anxiety among those in the inner 
circle.  Asked what additional steps he thought the U.S. 
should take on Zimbabwe, Zvobgo suggested expelling the 
children of those responsible for the country's political and 
economic crises, and providing as much food as possible to 
rural areas, which were facing an "absolute calamity." 
7.  (C) NEPAD, Zvobgo suggested, should be used as leverage 
to encourage President Obasanjo and Mbeki to do more on 
Zimbabwe.  Other potentially useful pressure points, he said, 
are Zimbabwe's inability to cover its external debt, 
particularly its lack of resources to purchase fuel and 
electricity.  Zvobgo claimed that South Africa has been 
supplying Zimbabwe with electricity free of charge for the 
last six months, and he wondered how much longer the South 
African government would be willing and able to continue that 
arrangement. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
8.  (C) The 60-something Zvobgo looked even more tired and 
frail than usual.  He and his wife planned to travel to Cape 
Town the following morning for several weeks of R&R and 
medical consultations.  He seemed at a loss as to what steps 
might force Mugabe to step back from the brink but believed, 
as do most observers, that South Africa and President Mbeki 
can play a key role should they choose to do so.  At the very 
least, Zvobgo's claim that South Africa is supplying Zimbabwe 
with electricity gratis certainly bears exploration. 
SULLIVAN