US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI5216

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 005216 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, PTER, KISL, IN, PK, Counter-Terrorism 
SUBJECT: BJP MISCALCULATES AGAIN: EFFORTS TO CAPITALIZE ON 
AYODHYA FIZZLE 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 5165 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoffrey Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: BJP attempts to capitalize on the July 5 
Ayodhya terrorist attack have largely fallen flat, and 
opposition calls for the resignation of Home Minister Patil 
and the Uttar Pradesh (UP) Chief Minister have evoked little 
popular response.  BJP calls for nationwide strikes and 
demonstrations on July 6 went largely unheeded outside of 
opposition controlled states.  Although the BJP has tried to 
put on a show of unity and called for a revival of the Ram 
temple issue, the party remains plagued by deep disunity, 
with the RSS determined to remove LK Advani, who now faces 
renewed legal problems stemming from his role in the 1992 
demolition of the Babri Mosque.  So far, the real winners 
from the unsuccessful terrorist strike are Congress and UP 
Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav.  Most Indians praise the 
performance of the security forces and heeded the Prime 
Minister's call for calm.  The left was quick to support 
Congress and close ranks against a renewed communal 
agitation.  Mulayam was facing renewed threats to his tenure 
in UP, but BJP calls for his resignation have lifted his 
political fortunes and rallied his supporters.  End Summary 
 
The BJP Acts Fast 
----------------- 
 
2.  (C) Following an early morning terror strike on the 
Ayodhya site, the BJP leadership emerged from its July 5 New 
Delhi meeting energized and confident.  Locked in internecine 
squabbling and losing popularity prior to the attack, they 
told reporters that they saw the Ayodhya incident as an 
opportunity for revival and consolidation.  The BJP 
leadership hoped that the attack would: 
 
--end the ongoing conflict between Party President LK Advani 
and the RSS (over the latter's remarks about Mohammed Ali 
Jinnah), 
 
--revive the sagging morale of the party cadre, 
 
--turn around the party's flagging electoral fortunes, 
especially in the Hindi belt and Uttar Pradesh (UP). 
 
3.  (U)  Opposition leaders pointed out that for the first 
time in months the Sangh Parivar (family of Hindu 
organizations) had buried its differences and was jointly 
supporting the BJP's planned protests against the attack. 
Some hoped that the RSS would unite with Advani to meet the 
challenge presented at Ayodhya. 
 
The BJP Action Plan 
------------------- 
 
4.  (U) While the Prime Minister was urging the nation to 
remain calm and await the results of the ongoing 
investigation into the attack before passing judgment, the 
BJP was quick to pounce.  Rajya Sabha Opposition Leader 
Jaswant Singh called the attack an "assault on the Hindu 
faith" and accused the UPA of propagating a "softness toward 
terrorism", and "a certain mindset that no one need bother 
about Hindu feelings."  Others in the party questioned how a 
(presumably Pakistani) terrorist gang could operate deep in 
the Indian heartland. 
 
5.  (U) To protest the attack the BJP: 
 
--demanded the resignation of Home Minister Shivraj Patil and 
UP Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav, 
 
--scheduled nationwide protest marches in major Indian cities, 
 
--called a general strike (bandh) in UP, Madhya Pradesh, 
Rajasthan, Jharkhand and Orissa, 
 
--announced that former Chief Ministers Rajnath Singh and 
Kalyan Singh and BJP leader Murli Manohar Joshi would go to 
Ayodhya. 
 
Press reports also indicate that in Jharkhand and UP BJP 
demonstrators publicly blamed Pakistan for the attack and 
burned the Pakistani flag. 
 
The RSS Claims Vindication 
-------------------------- 
 
6.  (U) The RSS leadership coincidentally was meeting in 
Surat on July 5.  The RSS leaders claimed that the Ayodhya 
attack would unify the BJP and the Sangh Parivar around the 
Hindutva cause.  Blaming the attack on "Islamic terrorism and 
minority appeasement," the RSS leaders claimed vindication, 
saying the attack would "once and for all open the eyes of 
those sections of the Sangh Parivar which were deviating from 
the basic Hindutva ideology (a veiled swipe at Advani)."  VHP 
leader Praveen Togadia was quick to blame Pakistan, "jihadi 
terrorism" and "Muslim vote bank politics" for the attack, 
noting that "I have been telling the Government and the 
Indian Army for over two years that if we don't crush 
Pakistan's jihadi terrorism in Lahore and Islamabad, we will 
have to fight it in New Delhi and Ayodhya." 
 
Tear Gas in New Delhi 
--------------------- 
 
7.  (U) The BJP's July 6 rally in New Delhi turned violent, 
as demonstrators "courting arrest" clashed with police, 
leading authorities to use tear gas and water cannons. 
Addressing the rally, Advani appeared to make another 
political about face.  During his May 30-June 6 trip to 
Pakistan (Reftel B) he had touched off a firestorm of 
criticism for his remark that the day of the 1992 demolition 
of the Babri Mosque was the "saddest day of my life." 
Returning to his role of Hindu rabble rouser, Advani 
announced that the attack had made "the Ram temple campaign a 
mainstream issue," and restated the BJP's commitment to build 
a Ram temple at Ayodhya.  Claiming that the UPA had failed to 
secure the Ayodhya site, Advani reiterated the BJP demand for 
Patil and Mulayam's resignations. 
 
The Agitation Flops 
------------------- 
 
8.  (U) The BJP call for nationwide protests on July 6 was 
largely unobserved outside of BJP controlled states. 
Although VHP and RSS cadre attempted to coerce shopowners to 
shut down, Uttar Pradesh, including Ayodhya, was calm, with 
most businesses open as usual.  Uttaranchal was also calm. 
The most widespread response was in Madhya Pradesh (MP) and 
Rajasthan, where protests were encouraged by sympathetic BJP 
governments.  In the MP city of Indore, BJP protesters broke 
through a perimeter wall of the airport, delaying a flight to 
Delhi and vandalizing the waiting room.  Others blocked 
railway tracks, stopping several trains.  In anticipation of 
trouble, MP schools closed down.  In Rajasthan, the state 
government closed its offices and kept state employees home. 
 
The NDA Opts Out 
---------------- 
 
9.  (U) The BJP's allies in the NDA distanced themselves from 
the agitation, with Janata Dal(U) leader George Fernandes 
praising the security forces for stopping the attack, 
absolving the UP state government of any wrongdoing, and 
refusing to join the BJP call for the dismissal of Mulayam 
Singh Yadav.  Unnamed NDA leaders were quoted in press 
reports stating that "the world has changed," and an 
agitation based on the Ram temple "cannot last even a few 
days."  Chandrababa Naidu of the NDA ally the Telegu Desam 
Party joined Fernandes in praising the security forces, and 
appealed for calm. 
 
Advani's Troubles Mount 
----------------------- 
 
10.  (U) Just as Advani was attempting to recast himself as 
the leader of a renewed Ram temple agitation, his previous 
actions came back to haunt him.  On July 6, in an action 
unrelated to the terrorist attack, the Lucknow Bench of the 
UP High Court dismissed the judgment of a lower court and 
reinstated previous criminal cases against Advani, Murli 
Manohar Joshi, Uma Bharti, and other BJP and VHP leaders 
stemming from the Babri Mosque demolition in 1992.  The court 
ordered new trials for Advani and the other defendants under 
section 149 of the Indian Penal Code, for "provoking people 
into rioting, arson and indulging in rioting with intent to 
create disorder." 
 
Reactions from UP 
----------------- 
 
11. (C) Embassy interlocutors in UP generally dismissed the 
BJP's strike call, agreeing that the attack would not revive 
the party's flagging fortunes.  The Lucknow Editor of the 
"Hindustan Times" predicted the attack would revive the 
Samajwadi Party (SP) of Mulayam Singh Yadav rather than the 
BJP, saying "the more the BJP attacks, the stronger he will 
become," and suggesting that Muslims would now return to the 
SP, strengthening Mulayam's hold on the state. 
 
12.  (C) The "Asian Age" Bureau Chief dismissed the strike 
call, saying "the Hindutva plank has lost all relevance."  He 
predicted that attempts by BJP leaders to rouse emotions in 
Ayodhya would fall on deaf ears.  A Lucknow Shia leader noted 
that while the state's Muslims were "shocked" by the attack, 
they were happy that it was thwarted.  He predicted that 
Muslims would remain calm and not respond to attempts by 
politicians to rouse their emotions. 
 
Reactions in Delhi 
------------------ 
 
13.  (C) SP MP Shahid Siddiqui was quick to take credit for 
preventing the attack, saying "my party's government in UP 
deserves full marks for controlling the situation so 
efficiently.  We will not allow communal peace and harmony to 
be disturbed by the BJP."  Pointing out that the electronic 
media now work to control rumors, Siddiqui asserted that the 
state's communal situation has changed since the Babri Mosque 
was destroyed and that both Hindus and Muslims are determined 
to remain peaceful and avoid trouble. 
 
14.  (C) Congress MP Rashid Alvi praised Pakistan for its 
quick condemnation of the attack, and predicted that the BJP 
agitation would fail everywhere except in the BJP controlled 
states.  Alvi quickly dismissed BJP calls for Home Minister 
Patil's resignation saying that similar attacks took place 
when the NDA was in power and Advani was Home Minister, and 
there was no talk of resignation then. 
 
15.  (C) "Hard News" Editor Sanjay Kapoor predicted that the 
UPA would emerge stronger after the Ayodhya attack, as it 
would bring the Left parties and Congress closer together. 
Indeed, the Ayodhya crisis has pushed Left opposition to 
closer Indo-US defense ties and UPA economic reforms into the 
background.  Kapoor pointed out that the Left fears any 
revival of the BJP and would cooperate with Congress to 
ensure that the BJP agitation fails to take off. 
 
BJP Decline to Continue 
----------------------- 
 
16.  (C) "Hindustan Times" columnist and political insider 
Pankaj Vohra told Poloff on July 6 that the BJP is in serious 
trouble and predicted that its problems would continue to 
mount despite the Ayodhya attack.  Vohra claimed that his 
sources say that the RSS will not rest until Advani is 
dismissed from the party leadership and replaced as party 
president by Murli Manohar Joshi.  RSS sources tell Vohra 
that Advani could be out by as early as July 11.  Vohra 
insisted that Advani had wanted to lead the agitation from 
Ayodhya, but was told by the RSS that he was not welcome 
there and they could not guarantee his safety. 
 
17.  (C)  Vohra believes that the BJP has no option but to 
return to Hindutva and face the electoral consequences.  The 
RSS is telling the party leadership that only a Hindutva 
plank will ensure that the BJP is a "party with a 
difference," and that although this will cost the party over 
the short term, it is the only way to ensure its revival over 
the long term.  Our contacts agree that the BJP will continue 
to lose elections for the next three years and could be 
reduced to a regional party holding only its bastions in the 
Hindi belt and Gujarat.  Vohra echoed other interlocutors 
predicting that the Ayodhya agitation would fail, saying "the 
Ram temple issue has no traction." 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
18.  (C) The BJP is increasingly desperate as it enters a 
period of protracted decline.  Seeing the Ayodhya attack as 
an opportunity, it moved quickly to exploit it, but 
over-reached.  BJP verbal attacks on Pakistan and burning the 
Pakistani flag will not go down well with Indians bent on 
normalizing relations with Islamabad.  Likewise, the violent 
acts of BJP goons to enforce the strike will further alienate 
Indians fed up with political violence.  All indications are 
that the latest BJP strategy will fail to gel and that there 
is no formula yet identified that can prevent further BJP 
setbacks. 
 
19.  (C) In domestic terms, Congress could be a big winner 
from the Ayodhya attack.  The Prime Minister was quick to 
reassure the nation, the party indulged in no histrionics, 
and most Indians are happy with the performance of the 
security forces.  The Left will likely close ranks with 
Congress as long as there is any threat that the BJP and its 
Sangh Parivar allies will revive Hindu communalism.  This 
could give Congress renewed freedom of action over the short 
term.  The hold of Mulayam Singh Yadav over UP has also been 
strengthened, and Congress will therefore likely defer its 
plans to move against him. 
BLAKE