US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI5208

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 005208 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2015 
TAGS: PREL, ENRG, EPET, PGOV, RS, IN, India-Russia 
SUBJECT: SONIA GANDHI CAPS INDIA'S MONTH IN RUSSIA 
 
REF: A. MOSCOW 7987 
 
     B. NEW DELHI 4270 
     C. NEW DELHI 4447 
 
Classified By: POL Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Sonia Gandhi's trip to Russia from June 
13-16 (Ref A) on her first bilateral visit abroad since 
taking over as the United Progressive Alliance Chairperson 
has stirred debate about the symbolism of her trip and 
provoked a front-page controversy over questions of ethics 
and protocol.  Delhi-based foreign analysts noted Gandhi 
family ties to Russia and the need for Russian assistance to 
meet India's growing energy needs, while political pundits 
speculated that she might use the trip to dig up information 
on UP Chief Minister Yadav's 1997 Sukhoi deal and also to 
ease relations between the Congress and its Communist allies. 
 Although her trip was viewed here as more symbolic than 
substantial, Mrs. Gandhi followed in the footsteps of the 
Prime Minister, President and Foreign Minister, who all 
visited within the last month, illustrating Russia's 
continued importance as a traditional partner and energy 
supplier even as India's foreign policy branches out.  End 
Summary. 
 
Why Madame Gandhi? 
------------------ 
 
2.  (U) United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Chairperson Sonia 
Gandhi's decision to travel to Russia with FM Natwar Singh on 
her first bilateral foreign trip, with little notice or 
coverage in the press, surprised many Delhi-based observers. 
Amit Baruah, the Diplomatic Correspondent at "The Hindu," 
speculated that the Gandhi family's historical ties to Moscow 
and Indira and Rajiv's frequent visits to Russia made it a 
comfortable choice.  Sonia has her own connection to Russia, 
having reportedly travelled on this trip to the cities of 
Vladimir and Suzdal, where her father, Stefan Maino, was a 
POW during WWII.  According to the "Asian Age," she was 
influenced by her father's Russian experience and studied 
Russian growing up. 
 
3.  (C) Mrs. Gandhi may also have intended to send a signal 
that she is expanding her role in foreign affairs.  For the 
first year of the UPA regime, Sonia was very careful to let 
PM Manmohan Singh take the limelight, and rarely met with 
foreign visitors.  When the Russia trip was announced, "The 
Hindu's" Baruah noted that Sonia's political role and lack of 
foreign affairs experience made it "out of sync for Mrs. 
Gandhi to be involved in foreign policy decision making." 
This accords with what we know of UP policy making -- with 
Sonia out of the official decision loop on routine foreign 
policy matters.  According to Zafar Agha, former news editor 
of the weekly "India Today," Sonia wanted to change that view 
by "testing the waters" to see how she shapes up abroad and 
demonstrating to her party that she is capable of handling 
both domestic and external affairs.  According to Agha, 
showing greater foreign policy skills strengthens her hand 
internally by "making her an indispensable figure that can 
play any card."  Sonia has also recently retained the 
services of foreign policy staffer Aneil Methrani, who was 
secretary of the AICC foreign affairs committee when Congress 
 
SIPDIS 
was out of power, and was given an Ambassadorship in 2004. 
Given the Gandhi family's historically strong connection to 
Russia, Agha noted that Putin's invitation was the perfect 
opportunity for her debut.  Sonia has also reportedly 
received official invitations to travel to Pakistan and 
China. 
 
Foreign Policy Explanations 
--------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) The GOI had plenty of high-level opportunities to 
strengthen bilateral ties in recent weeks (Ref A), so 
although Mrs. Gandhi's trip was without a public agenda, it 
nevertheless had foreign policy implications.  Indian press 
reported that Ambassador to Russia Kanwal Sibal described 
Putin's invitation as "an exceptional gesture of friendship 
on the part of President Putin that reflects the high 
importance both sides attach to their relations."  MEA 
Russian expert Dr. T. Suresh Babu noted to Poloff that this 
trip was part of the "ongoing intensive cooperation" between 
friends, hoping to "add substance to the relationship," but 
"not a breakthrough trip." 
 
5.  (C) According to Mr. Babu, Sonia met with President Putin 
for lunch and addressed the Dialogue of Civilizations World 
Society Forum, organized by the Center of National Glory in 
Russia, where she spoke of the need to work with Russia to 
address terrorism and strengthen the "forces of 
multilateralism (Ref A)."  Highlighting the need to add 
substance to Russia-India ties through greater people to 
people contacts and economic cooperation, JNU professor 
Gulshan Sachdeva commented that despite "11 summit meetings 
and 112 agreements in the last 12 years," tangibly there is 
little outside of defense and energy agreements to show for 
the relationship.  Veena Nair, a professor of Politics at 
Lady Shri Ram College, told Poloff that Sonia's trip 
reassured Moscow that even as the Congress party continues to 
strengthen new relationships across the globe, Russia is 
still an important ally. 
 
6.  (C) Baruah described this as a "political signal to the 
Russian leadership," at the base of which is the GOI's energy 
policy.  With a reported 1.7 billion USD invested in the 
Sakhalin I oil field and recent MOUs for underground coal 
gasification and hydrocarbon cooperation, India's 
relationship with Russia is increasingly centered around 
energy security.  After three top-level visits in May and 
June featuring a public emphasis on nuclear energy, Baruah 
said that "knowing the way the Russian system works, the GOI 
must have seen that closer relations would be helpful in 
gaining access to Russia's energy reserves."  New Delhi's 
close ties with Moscow also helped procure an invitation for 
Delhi to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as an 
observer, which also helps advance India's energy agenda in 
Central Asia. 
 
Internal Political Motivations 
------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Mrs. Gandhi's status as chairperson of the ruling 
coalition predictably spurred a host of rumors about the 
message her trip sends back home.  Delhi-based pundits 
speculated that Sonia went to Russia to dig up information 
about the Indian purchase of 40 Russian Sukhois made when 
current Uttar Pradesh (UP) Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav 
was Defense Minister in 1997.  Yadav has been implicated in a 
scheme under which India would pay an advance of 500 million 
USD to Russia for the aircraft in 1995 to bail out the Sukhoi 
manufacturer.  If Congress can unearth evidence in Russia to 
substantiate the implications, that would help discredit 
Yadav and strengthen Rahul Gandhi's prospects for developing 
a political power base in UP.  Journalist Agha speculated 
that Sonia is on the lookout for this evidence and will "be 
asking through her interlocutors," but doubted that Russia 
would oblige her on the Sukhoi deal, knowing that any 
information would come back to haunt Moscow as well. 
 
8.  (C) An alternative view in political circles is that 
Sonia went to Russia because the Congress party is concerned 
about growing influence by the Left Front (LF), the group of 
four Communist parties that support Congress in the UPA 
coalition.  From this perspective, her trip was aimed at 
playing on the difference between the Russian leaning CPI and 
the Chinese influenced CPI(M) to strengthen the former.  Mrs. 
Gandhi could also have hoped to fracture the LF in several 
states that are holding elections in early 2006.  Political 
commentator and journalist Agha observed that the 
country-based ideological alignments of the communist parties 
do not matter much these days, and that Mrs. Gandhi's trip 
"would generally give a good signal to the left."  He 
speculated that the trip might help Congress get "very mild 
support in Kerala" in the next election, but concluded that 
Gandhi would never be able to weaken and split the LF. 
 
Opposition Cries Fowl 
--------------------- 
 
9.  (C) Still smarting from the recent Advani leadership 
crisis (Refs B and C), the BJP used Sonia's trip as fodder 
for front-page accusations of impropriety in her travel to 
Russia.  In addition to several protocol complaints, the more 
serious accusation concerned Gandhi's choice to take a 
private jet belonging to the "Reliance" business conglomerate 
to fly to Russia.  The GOI is currently conducting multiple 
investigations into Reliance activities.  Party Treasurer 
Motilal Vora asserted that Congress paid 12 lakh rupees (or 
about 27,000 USD) in advance for the plane, which he 
contended was normal practice for both the Congress and the 
Opposition.  Political commentator Agha noted that all Indian 
politicians use corporate jets, often without paying for them 
and that the BJP was trying to divert attention from the 
Advani crisis.  The controversy died out after the Congress 
documented BJP use of Reliance jets for recent domestic 
travel. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
10.  (C) The Congress President's unique position in Indian 
politics allowed Sonia simultaneously to resurrect Gandhi 
family ties with Russia, establish herself as a capable 
figure in foreign affairs, and curry more support from the 
left parties.  Although her foreign policy debut was marked 
by controversy over protocol and planes, the UPA viewed the 
trip as a success, which may pave the way for Mrs. Gandhi to 
accept invitations to China and Pakistan.  The timing of 
Gandhi's trip, coming in the wake of other senior level 
visits to Moscow, is an indication of the importance to India 
of energy and defense acquisition and its continued 
commitment to close ties with Russia, even as the PM pursues 
a new and stronger partnerships with Washington. 
BLAKE