US embassy cable - 05LJUBLJANA460

C O N F I D E N T I A L  LJUBLJANA 000460 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, SI 
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA: LIBERAL DEMOCRATS IN CRISIS 
 
 
Classified By: COM Thomas B. Robertson for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary.  Since Parliamentary elections in October 
2004, the former ruling Liberal Democracy Party (LDS) has 
lost focus, cohesion and leadership - and there is no clear 
savior in sight.  It is universally agreed among Slovenes 
that, from the time he assumed the role of Prime Minister, 
Anton Rop has performed dismally as party leader. Yet, after 
the initial finger pointing following the failed elections, 
the LDS again chose Rop as party president.  Since that time 
and in addition to the hits taken prior to national 
elections, the party has suffered a number of public blows, 
including the disintegration of the LDS Group of Ljubljana 
City Counselors between March and June 2005.  There has been 
widespread criticism in the press of Rop's inability to mount 
an effective opposition to current Prime Minister Janez 
Jansa's very popular government coalition.  Rop has defiantly 
refused to step down, but in a nod to reality, agreed to an 
early party Congress to be held in September 2005.  It is not 
certain, yet, whether the entire leadership will be up for 
re-election, or just the President.  End Summary. 
 
Early Signs of Faltering 
------------------------ 
 
2. (C) The current predicament of LDS is rooted in leadership 
changes which occurred in December 2002 when then Prime 
Minister Janez Drnovsek was elected President of Slovenia. 
Rop, then Minister of Finance, was hand-picked by Drnovsek to 
fill the vacancy of Prime Minister.  Internal tensions grew 
and the Rop-Drnovsek relationship became strained.  In a 
stunning loss in June 2004, LDS claimed only two of seven 
sets in the European Parliament.  Rather than view tis as a 
major political loss and a signal of poplar discontent with 
the LDS, Rop and his supportes continued to pursue their 
parliamentary re-election campaigns in a "business-as-usual" 
manner.  After 12 years of near constant rule, the LDS 
apparently did not believe the Slovene public would reject 
what it was coming to view as an arrogant and elitist 
leadership and vote for Janez Jansa who, until then, seemed 
destined to be the eternal opposition. 
 
Continuing Descent 
------------------ 
 
3. (C) When Rop took over from Drnovsek as party President 
(and Prime Minister) he also shifted the party (and 
Government) away from the center and more decidedly to the 
left.  While a strong supporter of EU membership for 
Slovenia, his support for NATO was luke-warm.  Rather than 
make bold, necessary economic changes, Rop wanted Slovenia to 
adopt (or hold on to) a strong social-welfare model of 
government such as in Denmark or Sweden.  Privatization was 
not truly on the agenda, and foreign direct investment was 
viewed with parochial suspicion.  In addition to preferring a 
less dynamic "go slow" approach to economic reform, the LDS 
and its economic beneficiaries i.e. directors general and 
board members of most major components of the economy: 
banking, insurance, energy, retail, food processing, etc. 
were being viewed as arrogant and interested only in 
self-enrichment.  Nothing Rop did during elections helped to 
change the prevailing view. Even the creation of "Forum 21," 
former President Kucan's group of influential and like-minded 
financial and political leaders, had no effect.  Had Rop 
managed to pull off a win, we could have expected a 
resurgence in Kucan's influence. As it is now, and with the 
change in leadership on most boards of the government owned 
enterprises, Forum 21, and any potential influence it might 
have had, has largely fizzled away. 
 
LDS as Opposition 
----------------- 
 
4.  (C) During a private lunch with COM in April, Rop said he 
was prepared to be a strong and loyal opposition.  He had set 
up a shadow cabinet and told us it would closely track Jansa 
and his government's actions.  Since then, we have seen 
little to suggest an organized, principled opposition agenda 
has been developed or deployed.  There is the occasional 
swipe in the press aimed at a Jansa policy, but for the most 
part, Rop and the LDS are more focused on their internal 
political meltdown than national strategy.  Perhaps in 
acknowledgment of a poorly run campaign and a deep chasm 
between himself and the Slovene voter, Rop also asked COM for 
contact information for the National Democratic Institute. 
He said that he would like to connect with some US 
politicians on how to run a better campaign.  This was an 
interesting request coming from a firmly Euro-centric 
politician. (Note: Post did pass along the requested 
information. End Note) 
 
Will LDS Survive? 
 
----------------- 
 
5.  (C) The LDS will likely survive in some form, but it will 
probably need several election cycles before it can hope to 
reclaim its former political standing.  Former LDS youth wing 
leader and International Visitor participant, Stane Straus, 
in a conversation with Polecon Chief, predicted it would be 
eight or maybe even 12 years before the LDS won back the 
Prime Minister's office.  He was clearly fed up with the poor 
leadership of the party and, after the 2004 elections, opted 
to return to his hometown of Kranj to pursue lcoal business 
and political opportunities.  Straus suggested he might even 
move to Australia for a few years to build a strong personal 
economic foundation before returning, eventually, to national 
party politics. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6.  (C) The LDS crisis is one of leadership.  Rop defiantly 
refuses to resign, however, he has said that he would not run 
again for party president if an election is held at the 
Septembr party Congress. His support base within the party is 
made up primarily of the most left-leaning members, including 
many of the "technocrats" whom he appointed to ministerial 
positions when the SLS left the coalition in Spring of 2004. 
Despite a recent meeting, President Drnovsek is unlikely to 
spend any of his valuable political capital in support of 
Rop, who lost no time abandoning Drnovsek's more centrist, 
consensus-driven positions when he took over as Prime 
Minister in 2002.  The best that his internal opposition, 
made up mostly of old-guard LDS members, has been able to do 
is force the party congress to be held in September rather 
than December.  Nonetheless, and despite his obvious failings 
as a leader, there currently is no obvious, immediate 
alternative to Anton Rop. 
ROBERTSON 
 
 
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 2005LJUBLJ00460 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL 


 
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