US embassy cable - 05MANILA3116

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANILA 003116 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/PMBS, INR/EAP, DRL/CRA, S/CT 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, EAID, PREL, ASEC, PTER, RP 
SUBJECT: ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN MUSLIM AUTONOMOUS REGION IN 
SOUTH NOW UNDER WAY 
 
REF: A. MANILA 3046 
 
     B. MANILA 2442 
     C. MANILA 2332 
     D. MANILA 1529 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Timothy Cipullo for 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  The campaign for the August 8 elections in 
the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) began on June 
28.  Despite earlier promises, Malacanang has endorsed a 
candidate for governor:  Zaldy Ampatuan, a mayor and scion of 
a well-known political clan.  Ampatuan is now favored to win 
in what many predict could be a violent race filled with 
fraud.  Two Muslim insurgent groups have criticized the 
holding of the election and urged the public not to 
participate.  The Commission of Elections (COMELEC) is 
scrambling to prepare for the elections.  Mission, working 
with other embassies, is planning to field observer teams to 
the region before the election and on election day.  Given 
COMELEC's poor track record and the ongoing political 
tensions in Manila, it would be positive if the ARMM 
elections could serve as a model, but, at this point, signs 
do not point in that direction.  End Summary. 
 
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Campaign Begins 
--------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) On August 8, the five Muslim-dominated provinces 
that make up the ARMM will elect a governor, vice governor, 
and representatives to the 24-member Regional Legislative 
Assembly.  These are the first ARMM elections since November 
2001 (the GRP originally scheduled the elections for November 
2004, but then postponed them).  The field of candidates for 
the gubernatorial contest has finally solidified with 
Malacanang's endorsement of Zaldy Ampatuan -- the Mayor of 
Sharif Aguak, the capital of Maguindanao Province.  Ampatuan 
has agreed to contest the election as the candidate of Lakas, 
a key party in President Arroyo's coalition.  Due in part to 
the endorsement, as well as his family's well-known name and 
clan links in the region, Ampatuan is the early favorite in 
the election. 
 
3.  (SBU) Malacanang's decision to endorse Ampatuan was a 
surprise -- for months, the Palace had said it had no plans 
to endorse anyone.  In response to the news, current ARMM 
Governor Parouk Hussin quit Lakas (though he remains in the 
race for governor as an independent candidate).  Congressman 
Abdulgani "Gerry" Salapudin withdrew from the race after 
Ampatuan received Lakas' endorsement.  In addition to 
Ampatuan and Hussin, other well-known gubernatorial 
candidates include (there are three other minor candidates): 
 
-- Ibrahim "Toto" Paglas, a business entrepreneur and Mayor 
of Datu Paglas, who is running with the Liberal Party. 
Paglas is the most serious challenger to Ampatuan; and, 
 
-- Guimid Matalam, a former congressman from Maguindanao 
Province running with the opposition Partido Masang Pilipino 
(PMP) Party. 
 
4.  (C) Many Mission contacts have expressed serious concern 
that the elections will be marred by fraud and violence.  The 
Ampatuan family has a reputation as a political warlord clan 
that has employed violence in the past (ref B).  Toto Paglas, 
the main rival to Zaldy Ampatuan, told poloff in late June, 
"We must watch the Ampatuans.  They have lots of private 
armies and have terrorized every ARMM election."  The 
potential for violence has fueled demands for heightened 
security on election day.  On July 5, the Department of 
National Defense (DND) held a meeting with the ARMM 
candidates and local military commanders in Manila.  Armed 
Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief of Staff General Efren 
Abu announced that the AFP plans to enforce strictly a ban on 
the possession of firearms on election day and to set up 
check points to guard against violence.  DND also reinforced 
the message that the AFP was completely neutral, and that all 
commanders in the region should avoid any and all actions 
that might suggest favoring one candidate over another. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Insurgent Groups on Outside Looking in 
-------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) Two Muslim insurgent groups have criticized the 
holding of the election and urged the public not to 
participate.  Press reports indicate disillusionment and 
disappointment in Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) ranks 
due to the absence of a gubernatorial candidate from the 
group.  Some MNLF leaders are calling for their followers to 
boycott the polls.  At a June 22-23 meeting, some delegates 
at the "Bangsamoro Command Conference of the MNLF" declared 
their intention to boycott the August 8 polls.  However, 
former MNLF chairman and former ARMM governor Nur Misuari 
recently told the media (from jail where he is incarcerated 
by the GRP) that he considers such a boycott antithetical to 
the spirit of the 1996 peace agreement that the MNLF reached 
with the GRP.  For the MILF's part, the group has said it 
considers the ARMM to be a "sham," and has ordered its 
members to boycott the election. 
 
--------------------- 
COMELEC in a Scramble 
--------------------- 
 
6.  (C) COMELEC is scrambling to prepare for the elections. 
It recently had to abandon plans to use automated voting 
machines and vote counting will be done manually.  On July 6, 
COMELEC Commissioner Florentino Tuason said he realized that 
there was significant pressure on his organization and the 
GRP, stating; "The forthcoming ARMM elections, I believe, is 
some sort of a litmus test not only for COMELEC, but for the 
entire leadership."  Tuason's fellow Commissioner Mehol 
Sadain, a Muslim and ethnic Tausug who is in charge of 
COMELEC's operations in Basilan Province, told poloff June 30 
that COMELEC had low morale resulting, in part, from the 
controversy surrounding the recently-released audiotape of a 
discussion between President Arroyo and a COMELEC official in 
2004 (ref A).  COMELEC, however, had refocused its efforts 
and assigned one commissioner per province in the ARMM in 
order to "ensure the election gets done right."  Despite 
having received a reduced election budget of 199 million 
pesos (USD 3,553,000) from Congress (COMELEC requested 
approximately 350 million pesos), Sadain said support staff 
and materials in COMELEC provincial offices and voting 
centers would be in place by August 8.  He admitted that 
under-funding for COMELEC operations would probably delay 
some results.  Sadain downplayed media reports of disputes 
between COMELEC and GRP security forces, claiming that he 
understood that COMELEC would deputize roughly 1000 AFP and 
500 police personnel per province to help ensure security and 
an orderly election. 
 
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Mission Efforts 
--------------- 
 
7. (SBU) Security conditions permitting, Mission is planning 
to send 14 officers and 10 FSNs to the ARMM to observe the 
elections.  Officers will make five trips in the weeks before 
the election to meet with GRP, COMELEC, civil society, and 
other groups.  The Charge also plans to visit the region in 
early August.  On election day, teams of two officers and one 
FSN will visit five areas to observe polling stations and 
ballot counting.  RSO will send a representative to each city 
in advance of the observers to coordinate security 
arrangements.  Mission is coordinating its efforts with the 
embassies of Australia, Canada, Great Britain, New Zealand, 
among others.  Mission will host a joint training session 
with other embassies on July 21.  The training will cover 
poll watching procedures, security, and media interaction. 
 
8.  (U) The USG is also providing technical assistance to the 
election effort.  USAID recently awarded an extension of an 
earlier grant to the International Foundation for Election 
Systems (IFES) to allow it to continue its targeted ARMM 
election assistance and electoral reform program through the 
end of 2005.  IFES has supported COMELEC's efforts to improve 
ballot design and to update voter lists in the ARMM.  IFES 
also is providing technical and financial assistance to the 
Consortium on Election Reform (CER) which has been working 
with 65 local NGOs in the ARMM to conduct voter education 
campaigns in the run-up to the election.  Some of these NGOs 
will field their own monitoring teams on election day. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
9.  (C) Given COMELEC's poor track record, and the ongoing 
political tensions in Manila, it would be positive if the 
ARMM elections could serve as a model, but, at this point, 
signs do not point in that direction.  As noted, it appears 
that there could well be significant violence and fraud in 
the elections.  Malacanang's decision to endorse Zaldy 
Ampatuan has been very controversial, rubbing many in 
Mindanao the wrong way.  The Ampatuan clan's involvement 
could well lead to magnified problems in light of manifold 
accusations that it has employed violence and engaged in 
election cheating in the past.  Working with other embassies 
and NGOs, Mission believes that the observation efforts 
should help underscore the point that the international 
community is watching, and supports free and fair elections. 
Many contacts in the ARMM have told us how much they support 
the U.S. plan to send observers to help keep tabs on 
electoral preparations and the voting process itself. 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/ 
 
MUSSOMELI