US embassy cable - 05LAGOS1050

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001050 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2010 
TAGS: NI, PGOV, PREL 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA  SOUTHERN GOVERNORS MUSE ABOUT NATIONAL 
POLITICS 
 
 
Classified By: Classified by CG Brian L. Browne for Reasons 1.4 (b) and 
 (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  In separate meetings, Lagos Governor Bola 
Tinubu and Anambra Governor Chris Ngige downplayed the 
lasting import of the on-going National Political Reform 
Conference (NPRC), sponsored by President Obasanjo.  Neither 
being allies of the President Obasanjo they both took 
thorough delight in the firestorm erupting at the conference 
over resource control and in seeing Obasanjo scramble in an 
attempt to keep the conference from combusting. Governor 
Tinubu stated presidential aspirants Buhari, Abubakar 
(Atiku), and Babangida (IBB), have all approached him about 
being their running mate in 2007.  Meanwhile, for the ruling 
People's Democratic Party (PDP) national establishment, 
Governor Ngige remains the houseguest who simply will not 
leave.  Despite having been kicked out of the ruling People's 
Democratic Party (PDP) earlier this year, not only has Ngige 
remained in office, but he has invited himself to all 
official PDP functions. Ngige said he was biding time. 
Either the PDP will crack due to the Obasanjo-Atiku feud or 
Atiku will recapture control of the party during its 2006 
convention.  Either way, Ngige has cast his lot with Atiku, 
as a rapprochement with Obasanjo appears chimerical.  End 
Summary. 
 
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NPRC - Egg on Obasanjo's Face? 
------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) In a June 16 meeting with the Consul General to 
primarily discuss measures to improve the U.S. Consulate's 
security posture, Governor Tinubu expectorated at the NPRC 
convoked by President Obasanjo.  Tinubu steamed that 
President Obasanjo's plan A of extending his tenure had 
apparently crashed at the conference due to lack of support. 
Plan B of banning key rivals, Buhari and Babangida, also had 
not garnered sufficient support. In trying too blatantly, 
Obasanjo had spurred his opponents to ally against his 
interests. 
 
3. (C) Tinubu speculated Obasanjo was now left with Plan C -- 
to select a surrogate to run for president.  Tinubu claimed 
that Obasanjo provided a glimpse into his latest thinking 
during World Bank President Wolfowitz's recent Nigerian 
visit.  At that time, Obasanjo intimated that he would not 
run but was confident his reforms would perpetuate because 
pro-Obasanjo reformists like Minister of the Federal 
Territory Nasser El Rufai, Finance Minister Iweala, and 
budget maven Oby Esekwesili will remain in place after 2007. 
The only way Obasanjo can guarantee the offices of this trio 
beyond 2007 is if he controls the presidency after 2007.  And 
the only way to assure such control is through the victory of 
a hand-picked successor, Tinubu postulated. 
 
4. (C) In a June 23 meeting with the CG, Anambra Governor 
Chris Ngige discounted the significance of the NPRC.  He 
questioned how decisions of this advisory body could be made 
legal and binding, particularly given the enmity between the 
National Assembly and the NPRC.  Ngige could not restrain his 
laughter at seeing Obasanjo bound into the political bog of 
the conference - resource control.  He hoped Obasanjo plays 
the issue so lamely as to embitter both the South and the 
North.  For his part, Ngige saw the issue of resource control 
as a very practical one: give me enough money to run my state 
and I don't care how much any one else gets.  Ngige stated he 
would encourage governors to further bother Obasanjo by 
insisting any increase in the allocation to the oil producing 
states be deducted from the federal government's allotment, 
and not be a mere re-apportionment of funds amongst states. 
 
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Tinubu Says He's Being Courted for VP 
-------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Tinubu mentioned that VP Atiku and ANPP presidential 
candidate Buhari both are courting him as a running mate. 
He has been noncommittal, although he favors Atiku, a 
long-time friend.  Buhari's attendance at the June 12 
Democracy Day celebrations in Lagos was no coincidence, 
Tinubu claimed.  In addition to meeting the governor, Buhari 
met Yoruba elders, according to Tinubu.  Tinubu characterized 
these meetings as part of Buhari's support-building process. 
 
6. (C) Current VP Atiku wants to keep Tinubu close at 
hand;the two friends continue to muse about forming a new 
party together.  However, Tinubu said he was aware the VP's 
interest in gaining the PDP presidential nomination trumps 
their considerations for now.  If Obasanjo somehow reconciled 
himself to Atiku's presidential candidacy, a trade-off might 
be Atiku selecting an Obasanjo favorite as running mate. 
This would not be Tinubu.  In such a scenario, Atiku would 
drop Tinubu without remorse, the governor acknowledged. 
Conversely, should Obasanjo and Atiku remain estranged and 
the VP move to separate his wing of the party and form 
another party, he will need a running mate with substantial 
support in the south.  Tinubu believes he can answer that 
bill. 
 
7. (C) Lastly, Tinubu said IBB has made overtures.  However, 
Tinubu opined that even sidling toward IBB could turn him 
into a leper in the South-West given IBB's annulment of the 
Abiola electoral victory in 1993.  Tinubu said most Yorubas 
would never countenance such an alliance.  IBB probably 
figured this probe was a long shot but ever the schemer he 
also knew he had little to lose by asking. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
Meanwhile in Anambra, Ngige Hangs On and Waits for 2006 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
8.  (C) Ngige told the CG security has improved in Anambra. 
Ngige said Obasanjo had grown weary of the embarrassment 
caused by his curious relationship with political heavy Chris 
Uba and the entire Anambra saga.  As a result, Ngige said Uba 
was feeling much less protected, and now was rarely seen in 
the state.  Ngige claimed Uba spends most of his time in 
neighboring Enugu state, home of the mercurial governor 
Nnamani, a political ally of Uba and President Obasanjo. 
Concerning to his own fortunes, Ngige remains unflappable. 
The governor continues his quest to be re-instated into the 
PDP.  Ngige said he was equally confident he will prevail in 
the electoral court case, brought by Peter Obi and the All 
People's Grand Alliance (APGA). 
 
9.  (C) Regarding presidential politics, Ngige told CG while 
President Obasanjo has wrested control of the PDP national 
hierarchy, the PDP rank and file and its grassroots 
organization belong to VP Atiku. Obasanjo has blundered by 
trying to grab control of the party this early.  It will be 
difficult, if not impossible, to keep glued together these 
diverse personalities and disparate interests until the 2007 
elections.  "The president is dancing hard as he can, but the 
music has not even begun," Ngige guffawed.  Ngige predicted 
Obasanjo's control would unravel by the 2006 convention, when 
the party would shift decisively in favor of Atiku.  If 
somehow Obasanjo managed to retain control of the party, 
Atiku would bolt and take with him the bulk of the 
rank-and-file, Ngige predicted.  In that case, the PDP will 
become a living ghost of itself -- neither completely dead, 
nor alive but weakened to the point of not being able to hold 
power. 
 
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Comment 
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10. (C) A Tinubu vice presidency is in the realm of 
possibility with Atiku or Buhari, but is also unlikely.  For 
Tinubu to become someone's running mate, he will have to play 
his cards perfectly and yet still rely on Providence to do 
the remainder.  After eight years of Obasanjo, many Nigerians 
do not want to see a Yoruba as vice-president.  Moreover, 
Tinubu's Alliance for Democracy (AD) party was decimated 
during the 2003 elections.  He cannot be counted on to carry 
the southwest.  However, he does have some attractive points. 
 Lagos is a big prize in presidential elections.  If it is 
not Nigeria's California, it is at least New York or Texas. 
Also Yorubaland, the Southwest, is half Muslim.  Tinubu, a 
moderate Yoruba Muslim, could attract southern Muslims as 
well as Yoruba nationalists.  For a northern candidate who 
believes he has the three geo-political zones of his area in 
hand, Tinubu could be a viable mate.  If Buhari is to be the 
lead man, his ANPP and Tinubu's AD must strike an alliance. 
If the lead is to be Atiku, the VP would have to leave the 
PDP and form a party with Tinubu.  Yet, there are other 
southern governors that electorally would make a better match 
for Atiku.  In the end, Tinubu will keep his line out, but 
neither Buhari nor Atiku will likely take the hook unless 
other more attractive possibilities fade away. 
HOWE