US embassy cable - 05NAIROBI2747

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 002747 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF 
STATE PASS AID 
LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
USUN FOR D'ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, SO, KE, UNSC 
SUBJECT: SOMALIA -- RECONCILIATION AND MEDIATION PLANNING 
AMONG THE INTERNATIONALS 
 
REF: NAIROBI 2738 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (SBU) The Special Representative of the Secretary General 
(SRSG) issued a statement July 5 (reported reftel) indicating 
renewed international community (IC) support for 
reconciliation among members of the Transitional Federal 
Institutions (TFIs).  The SRSG proposed to the IC members of 
the Coordinating and Monitoring Committee (I-CMC) a plan for 
mediation among the various Somali leaders in the face of 
reports of continuing military buildups and factionalization 
among TFI members.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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YUSUF IN SOMALIA, NO FIGHTING YET 
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2. (SBU) SRSG Ambassador Francois Fall provided the political 
briefing at a July 5 meeting of the international community 
members of the Somali Coordinating and Monitoring Committee 
(I-CMC).  He noted that Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf 
Ahmed had apparently returned July 1 to his home region in 
Puntland.  Amid speculation as to Yusuf's whereabouts, much 
of it imagining the president putting into operation a plan 
of attack on his opponents in Mogadishu, reporting from 
Somalia indicated that he had returned to the port town of 
Bosasso. 
 
3. (SBU) In the capital, the Speaker of the Transitional 
Federal Assembly, Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, attempted to 
convene a session of the parliament on July 2.  Finding it 
impossible to assemble a quorum of members, those who did 
gather confined themselves to forming a committee from their 
number to open a political dialogue with the Prime Minister. 
PM Ghedi, for his part, reportedly struck a reconciliatory 
tone in his July 1 speech in celebration of the independence 
of the former Italian Somalia, then headed off to Sirte, 
Libya to attend the Summit of African Union Heads of 
Government. 
 
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UNITY OF ACTION 
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4. (SBU) SRSG Fall next obtained the group's approval to 
issue a statement calling for respect of the UN arms embargo, 
reduction in tensions, and renunciation of military 
maneuvering (reftel). He then turned to the business of 
rallying the IC behind the principles agreed in October 2004 
in Stockholm.  He emphasized to the I-CMC the importance of 
cohesion among all the actors.  Fall noted that, while 
efforts to secure peace were taking place on both the 
bilateral and multilateral fronts, bilateral approaches that 
were not carefully calibrated to avoid fueling conflict could 
be detrimental to the overall peace process. He urged country 
representatives to not take on approaches which could 
undermine both his leadership as SRSG as well as the 
legitimacy of the initiatives the I-CMC had tasked him to 
take. 
 
5. (SBU) Ambassador Fall observed that current reporting and 
monitoring indicated escalating tensions in Somalia, at least 
in part because of a continuing arms buildup.  He expressed 
his concern that one or the other of the two major groups 
within the TFIs could be preparing preemptive military 
action.  Fall pushed for support, especially from the donor 
country members of the I-CMC, for a course of action over the 
next weeks to mid-September, directed at bringing the Somali 
leaders to agreement on the key issues still blocking the 
return of governance to Somalia. 
 
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ACTION PLAN 
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6. (SBU) The SRSG presented a draft framework for a mediation 
effort, designed to bring all relevant leaders in the TFIs to 
the table for a final resolution of outstanding issues.  His 
objective was to have the leaders ready to formalize an 
agreement on the questions of the seat of government, 
security in the capital, and requests for a peace support 
operation from outside forces by early September, so that a 
High Level CMC meeting could be convened by mid-September as 
a vehicle for "blessing" the agreement, and pledging 
short-term support. 
 
7. (SBU) Several I-CMC members considered Amb. Fall's 
original proposal to be too prescriptive, lacking as it did 
at that point any significant Somali input.   Others stressed 
that the IC has a right and obligation to push the Somalis 
toward an agreement to allow for the return of governance, as 
agreed with the Somalis under the Declaration of Principles 
that was one of the results of the October 2004 Stockholm 
conference on Somalia.  That said, most agreed that the focus 
of discussions between Amb. Fall, on one hand, and the Somali 
leaders on the other, would have to be the safety and 
security of Mogadishu and the need for increased dialogue 
among the groups that have formed within the TFIs. 
 
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SUPPORT IN PRINCIPLE 
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8. (SBU) Somalia Watcher joined representatives from the UK, 
Sweden, Denmark and the EC in stating that the SRSG's 
initiative was clearly within the remit that the IC had given 
him in Stockholm.  That said, the details of the SRSG's plan 
clearly remained to be sorted out, and definitive support for 
the approach would have to await discussion with capitals. 
Comments focused on the need for quick action to defuse 
tensions beyond the issuance of the SRSG's statement, and on 
beginning initial stages of mediation immediately by pushing 
the most intransigent leaders to make clear to the SRSG their 
"non-negotiables".  Some thought a time-table looking to 
conclude discussions in September was not sufficiently 
ambitious given the stakes.  Others pointed out that a 
process of active SRSG mediation might well take some weeks 
in order to hammer out the differences, leaving the final 
agreement to be negotiated in early September, and the High 
Level CMC blessing for mid-month. 
 
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ITALY -- MUST HAVE CONSENSUS 
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9. (SBU) The Italian representative, Senator Mario Raffaelli, 
gave a very cautious endorsement to the SRSG proposal.  He 
stressed that the SRSG's mandate for leadership was firmly 
rooted in his first developing a consensus of the IC behind 
his proposals.  Raffaelli echoed the intervention of the 
Kenyan Ambassador to Somalia on the subject of continuing 
financial assistance, calling for no slowing of aid to the 
TFIs during the mediation period.  (NOTE: This was an 
apparent reference to Italy's intention to disburse some 
Euros 2.7 million toward district-level reconciliation 
projects strongly associated with the Yusuf side of the TFIs. 
END NOTE) 
 
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WORK TO BE DONE 
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10. (SBU) The SRSG summarized the discussion as having 
indicated an agreement in principle that he develop an 
aggressive strategy for mediation among the different 
groupings within the TFIs.  The focus of this mediation 
should be squarely on the questions of the capital city, the 
seat of government, security arrangements, and external 
military assistance.  Finally, the objective should be to 
move as rapidly as possible from polling relevant leaders to 
assembling leaders for tough negotiations leading to 
agreement and a blessing from the IC.  In the meanwhile, all 
members of the I-CMC appeared committed to unity of both 
action and message, making clear that military posturing or 
action was unacceptable.  They again reinforced the principle 
of an inclusive and reconciliation-based TFG. 
 
11. (SBU) Amb. Fall committed to pulling together a new 
formulation of this mediation framework before departing 
Nairobi July 8 en route to the UNSC discussions on Somalia, 
slated for July 14.  In a side conversation with Somalia 
Watcher, UN Political Office for Somalia Senior Advisor 
Babafemi Badejo suggested calling an informal meeting of 
Nairobi-based representatives of current UNSC member 
countries for a rapid review of the framework, and a 
discussion of the key issues before the Council, before the 
SRSG's departure. 
BELLAMY