US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI5165

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 005165 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR S/CT 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2015 
TAGS: PTER, PREL, PHUM, IN, PK, Counter-Terrorism 
SUBJECT: LET PRIME SUSPECT IN SYMBOLIC AYODHYA ATTACK 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 4449 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: The July 5 attempt by suspected 
Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) terrorists to wreck the controversial 
Ayodhya temple site was foiled by Indian security forces who 
had been previously alerted that the group might target 
religious sites.  The incident, however, is causing 
significant ripples in India's domestic politics and 
cross-border diplomacy.  The GOI and Indian commentators say 
that the terrorists, who have not yet been positively 
identified, had hoped to ignite a domestic firestorm with 
their attack, similar to what happened when the mosque was 
destroyed by Hindus in 1992.  At present, Hindu-Muslim 
violence appears unlikely.  The assault has been condemned by 
politicians of every stripe, including Kashmiri separatists 
and Hizbul Mujahedeen, but the Indo-Pak peace process may 
suffer if the attackers prove to be Pakistan-based.  Indian 
Foreign Minister Natwar Singh pointedly told Pakistan Prime 
Minister Aziz during a summit in Kazakhstan that the GOI 
would soon show Islamabad they had "concrete proof" that 
infiltration continues.  Police forces throughout the country 
remain on alert, especially at religious and historic sites, 
because this attack -- and possibly follow-on attempts -- 
targeted a symbolic site and was not designed to maximize 
casualties.  This cable addresses what we currently know 
about the attack itself; separate analysis of likely effects 
on Indian domestic politics and Indo-Pak rapprochement will 
follow septels.  End Summary. 
 
Attack on the Fabric of Indian Society 
-------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) At around 8:30 am on July 5, six terrorists posing as 
Hindu pilgrims detonated a bomb that blasted a hole through 
the outer wall of the Ayodhya temple complex.  The site 
itself is unremarkable.  The real target was India's 
multireligious society, which the terrorists sought to roil 
through their action.  After the explosion, the group charged 
toward their apparent target, the construction area where a 
temple to Ram had been planned to be built on the site of the 
former Babri Mosque.  The terrorists failed in their attempts 
to damage the site despite their reported use of hand 
grenades and a rocket-propelled grenade launcher.  After a 
two-hour-long gunfight, all the terrorists had been killed. 
One, rigged as a second human bomb, apparently detonated 
during the firefight, before he could close the gap to the 
site.  Officials are not yet confirming what kind of 
explosives the two suicide bombers used.  Aside from the 
terrorists, one unidentified woman was killed during the 
grenade attack.  Several Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) 
officers were wounded, none critically. 
 
PM Condemns Attack, Displays Resolve and Calm 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (U) Following a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on 
Political Affairs later on July 5, PM Manmohan Singh 
expressed his "shock" at the attack "aimed at destabilizing 
society" and promised that the GOI will "deal firmly" with 
all such attacks.  He also appealed for the populace to 
remain calm and called on all political parties to "help 
maintain peace and communal harmony."  The GOI has so far 
refused to blame publicly any group, but unnamed news sources 
claim that they have been told by informants within 
the GOI that Pakistan-based LeT is the prime suspect. 
 
Preliminary Reporting Suggests LeT 
---------------------------------- 
4.  (C) Although not conclusive, many indicators point to 
LeT.  The hardware seized after the attack -- a mobile phone, 
AK-47 and AK-56 rifles, pistols and as many as 17 hand 
grenades, according to several mainstream press articles -- 
shows that the attackers were well-equipped, and led the 
police to conclude that the operation was also well planned. 
"Indian Express" quoted unnamed security sources as 
indicating that the grenades recovered were Arges, the same 
manufacture as those used in the December 13, 2001 attack on 
Parliament.  The use of an official vehicle to breach the 
external security ring is also similar to the Parliament 
attack.  New Delhi-based terrorism expert Ajai Sahni told 
Poloff that Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) has largely been sidelined 
from conducting spectacular attacks, and the assault on 
Ayodhya did nothing to advance the Kashmir cause (which is 
Hizbul Mujahedeen's agenda).  This equation leaves LeT -- the 
most effective jihadi outfit for ex-Kashmir operations -- as 
the likely suspect. 
 
5.  (C) Police also point to this attack as following a 
pattern similar to that used in the September 24, 2002 LeT 
attack on Akshardham temple in Gujarat.  In 2002, two LeT 
cadres used assault rifles and grenades to kill 32 people and 
wound over 70.  As with Ayodhya, the Akshardham attack was 
designed as much to inflame religious tensions as to cause 
casualties.  That was followed two months later by lethal 
assaults on two temples in Jammu City.  LeT has targeted 
Ayodhya in the past; in 2001, one member of an LeT fedayeen 
squad survived a police encounter in Lucknow and reached 
Ayodhya before he was killed by security forces. 
 
6.  (C) "Hindustan Times" Senior Editor Manoj Joshi theorized 
that the group that attacked Ayodhya might have been the 
"third LeT module" supposed to target RSS HQ in Nagpur, after 
two others (whose targets were reportedly the Indian Military 
Academy in Dehra Dun and one or more IT firms in Bangalore) 
were arrested or killed in Delhi on March 5.  Other 
mainstream journalists quoted police sources who said that 
there had been a recent spike in terrorist "chatter" urging 
militants in India to execute a spectacular attack after a 
relative lull in violence. 
 
Symbolic Target Selected to Maximize Communal Fallout 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
7.  (C) Dr. Sahni underlined to Poloff that "there can be no 
other objective for selecting this target" other than to 
spark communal violence.  He attributed the relative calm in 
the aftermath to the failure of the attack: "If the attack 
had been successful, Hindu communalist leaders would have 
been able to orchestrate at least a few riots or acts of 
violent protest.  The number of fatalities in the attack 
itself was irrelevant." 
 
8.  (C) As with the May 22 Delhi cinema bombings (Reftel), 
the terrorists failed in their attempt to foment communal 
retribution after this attack.  Indeed, the Hindu hardline 
RSS issued a public request that all protests be conducted in 
a "peaceful manner."  However, police reportedly resorted to 
tear gas and water cannons to break up a July 6 demonstration 
of BJP activists in New Delhi as BJP President LK Advani 
began his address calling for the resignation of Home 
Minister Shivraj Patil and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister 
Mulayam Singh Yadav.  RSO estimates that approximately two 
thousand people turned out for the Delhi event despite 
monsoon rains.  Further domestic fallout will be covered 
septel. 
 
GOI Considering Embassy Offer of Technical Assistance 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
9.  (C) RSO offered technical assistance to the Home 
Ministry, who advised that their team is still processing the 
crime scene and they would need to determine what their 
investigative needs were.  MHA confirmed that no group has 
yet claimed responsibility for the attack, and that it is too 
early in the investigation to indicate who may be 
responsible. 
 
Indo-Pak Talks not in Jeopardy (Yet) 
------------------------------------ 
 
10.  (C) The attack also places the successful Indo-Pak peace 
process at potential risk.  Foreign Minister Natwar Singh, on 
the margins of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit 
in Kazakhstan, repeatedly told Pakistan Prime Minister 
Shaukat Aziz that the GOI would soon present Islamabad with 
"concrete evidence of cross-border terrorism."  Meanwhile, in 
New Delhi, an unnamed senior MEA official reiterated to 
Reuters that, according to the GOI, infiltration "has 
decreased but not stopped" and Pakistan "has not dismantled 
terrorist infrastructure."  Dr. Sahni (and many other 
observers) is convinced that "even if LeT was not the 
responsible group, the linkages between these terrorists and 
Pakistan will be just as inexorable."  Indian police are now 
gearing up for follow-on attacks on other religious or 
historic sites.  If later attacks cause greater casualties or 
damage India's national treasures, it will become 
increasingly difficult for the GOI to pursue Indo-Pak 
rapprochement.  At a minimum, commentators are renewing calls 
for the PM to publicly remind Pakistan President Musharraf of 
his January 6, 2004 pledge not to let territory under 
Pakistani control be used for terrorism in India, which the 
PM has long avoided doing. 
 
Kashmiris Denounce Attacks 
-------------------------- 
 
11.  (C) Hizbul Mujahedeen (the largest ethnic Kashmiri 
terrorist group) and the United Jihad Council quickly 
condemned the attack as "anti-Hindu, anti-Muslim, and aimed 
at provoking riots."  The moderate Mirwaiz Hurriyat faction, 
and then the pro-Pakistan hardline Geelani faction, quickly 
followed suit, and our journalist contacts in Srinagar say 
that this incident is viewed there as an impediment to both 
separatists' agenda and the Indo-Pak peace process.  "Daily 
Excelsior" correspondent Ahmed Ali Fayez in Srinagar remarked 
that many people there believe LeT staged the attack.  Izhar 
Wani with AFP in the Valley told us that "moderates, 
hardliners, everyone is condemning it." 
 
Police On Alert 
--------------- 
 
12.  (U) Home Secretary VK Duggal confirmed on Indian TV that 
the GOI had prior information that terrorists planned to 
target "important installations and religious places" in 
Uttar Pradesh, which led the state government to increase the 
numbers and alert level of its security personnel at several 
sites, including Ayodhya.  Delhi Police Commissioner KK Paul 
announced after the attack that he was calling up more 
officers, adding that there was no specific threat against 
targets in the city. 
Central Reserve Police Force Credited 
------------------------------------- 
 
13.  (U) The attack on the temple complex was repulsed 
primarily by CRPF commandos, the same security branch that 
gunned down the JeM terrorists who tried to storm Parliament 
on December 13, 2001.  CRPF forces guard the inner areas of 
the temple complex, and state security forces provide 
perimeter defense.  A number of leading political party 
leaders have congratulated the CRPF for their successful 
defense of the site. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
14.  (C) The relative calm in the immediate aftermath of the 
Ayodhya attack suggests there will be no firestorm of 
communal violence.  Indians seem aware that pursuing that 
path would vindicate the terrorists' plans.  The GOI has not 
launched any official accusations of Pakistani involvement, 
despite initial suggestions this was an LeT attack, but 
Natwar Singh's publicized warning to PM Aziz that 
infiltration continues suggests the government is concerned 
about the political fallout from persistent cross-border 
terrorism, despite the broad improvement in relations with 
Islamabad.  A clear finding of LeT responsibility will 
increase the domestic pressure on the Singh government to do 
something about it. 
BLAKE