US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO1160

UNCLAS COLOMBO 001160 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA/INS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, CE, Political Parties, Elections 
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: OPPOSITION UNP BEGINS MOVEMENT TO 
GALVANIZE ITS VOTER BASE 
 
REF: COLOMBO 01151 
 
1. (U) Summary.  On July 2 the Opposition United National 
Party kicked off a ten-day march to protest the high cost of 
living and demand presidential elections this year.  Their 
movement, which began July 2 and will run through July 12, 
seems to be a campaign for future elections, be they 
presidential, parliamentary, or for the provincial councils. 
The march drew large support over its initial weekend, but 
crowds tapered off as the work week began.  The protest 
continues with smaller numbers, with the UNP hoping for its 
biggest bang on the final day.  End summary. 
 
2. (U) On July 2, the opposition United National Party (UNP) 
began its Jana Bala Meheyuma, or People's Power Movement 
(Reftel) in the southern city of Dondra.  The march is due 
to last until July 12.  UNP leader Ranil Wickremasinghe, 
accompanied by many UNP bigwigs, kicked off the movement by 
calling upon the United People's Front Alliance (UPFA) 
government to reduce the cost of living, find solutions to 
unemployment, and build a lasting peace.  He also demanded 
that the President hold elections at the end of 2005. 
(Note.  The Constitution permits the President two terms of 
six years each.  The President called for early elections 
during her first term and began her second term five years 
after her first.  According to the President's calculations, 
she can remain in power from twelve years from her initial 
election, which gives her until November 2006.  However, her 
opponents maintain that the clock started when she began her 
current term in office in 1999, so elections must be held in 
November 2005. End note.) 
 
3. (SBU) Press reports indicated that over 25,000 people 
participated on the movement's first day. Protesters marched 
from Dondra on the coastal road for three days.  The number 
of protesters dwindled as they walked into their third day, 
but when the group concluded in Galle on July 4 and held a 
rally, a crowd of supporters attended.  Wickremesinghe 
addressed that meeting as well, and announced that if he is 
elected President, he will revoke the requirement that no 
one build within the 100 meters of land from the coast that 
is now considered a tsunami buffer zone.  He said that a 
presidential election is the only solution to the nation's 
problems.  According to press reports, on the morning of 
July 5, only about 5000 people were continuing with the 
march.  Nevertheless, organizers claim that the rally in 
Colombo on July 12 will draw one million people. 
 
4. (SBU) On July 1 Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, Executive 
Director of the Center for Policy Alternatives, a prominent 
local think tank, told poloff he views the UNP's march to 
demand presidential elections in late 2005 as pointless 
political grand-standing.  Observing that the Election 
Commissioner alone has the authority to set the time frames 
for elections, Saravanamuttu questioned the utility of 
"demanding" earlier polls from the President.  The march is 
more likely an effort by the opposition party to galvanize 
its grassroots organization and to try to gauge its own 
popularity a year after its defeat in the 2004 general 
elections, he suggested. 
 
5. (SBU) Comment.  Despite UNP claims that the march is a 
general protest against the high cost of living, it seems 
evident that the UNP is beginning its campaign for any 
upcoming elections.  The decrease in the number of 
protesters is probably due to the start of the work week. 
The number of participants will likely rise next weekend and 
drop off again afterward.  The UNP should be able to gather 
a large crowd for the July 12 rally, but certainly nowhere 
near the one million they are projecting.  End note. 
LUNSTEAD