US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI2883

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002883 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CHINA THREAT 
 
1. Summary:  Almost all the major Chinese-language 
Taipei dailies carried July 1 a Japan-based "Daily 
Yomiuri" report which said the United States, citing a 
possible surprise assault on Taiwan by China's special 
forces as a realistic scenario, has told Japan that it 
will be difficult to reduce or relocate to the Japanese 
mainland any of the U.S. marine corps combat units 
stationed in Okinawa.  The pro-independence "Liberty 
Times," Taiwan's biggest daily, ran a banner headline 
on its front page that read "To prevent China from 
attacking Taiwan suddenly, the United States will not 
reduce its military presence in Okinawa."  Both the 
centrist "China Times" and the pro-independence "Taiwan 
Daily" also reported on their front pages that the U.S. 
troops stationed in Okinawa are capable of reaching 
Taiwan in one day to defend the island should any war 
break out in the Taiwan Strait. 
 
2. Two Chinese-language newspapers continued to run 
editorials on the United States' "China threat" theory. 
A "Liberty Times" editorial urged Taiwan officials to 
learn from their U.S. counterparts how to be concerned 
about national security and how to implement effective 
cross-Strait trade policies.  A "China Times" editorial 
discussed the true and misleading aspects of the United 
States' `China threat theory", noting that the `Taiwan 
issue' might be the only variable in U.S.-China 
relations.  End summary. 
 
A) "Effective Governance of [Taiwan's] Cross-Strait 
Economic and Trade Policies Is a Must" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 
800,000] commented in an editorial (7/1): 
 
". China is not an ordinary country after all.  The 
U.S. government has recently planned to stop any 
products that may be used to enhance China's military 
strength from being exported to China. . 
 
"In contrast, Taiwan people should feel ashamed that 
our businesses are investing equipment and technology 
worth tens of billions of U.S. dollars each year to 
help China build itself into an economic hegemony that 
is capable enough to cope with the United States and 
Japan.  Taiwan businessmen are also helping China to 
produce chips that can be used in missiles aimed at the 
United States.  In the meantime, our government is also 
considering `proactively' and `positively' [the 
possibility of] lifting the ban on local wafer plants 
and IC packaging and testing factories with even more 
advanced technology [thus allowing them] to move to 
mainland China. 
 
"Examples set by others may help one overcome one's 
defects.  Taiwan's political, economic and military 
officials should learn from their U.S. counterparts 
about their concerns for national security. . 
Legislation of the Technology Protection Law will be 
completed as soon as possible and any agricultural 
exchanges and cooperation across the Taiwan Strait must 
be suspended before the . legislation is done so as to 
prevent China's from exercising its united front 
strategy against Taiwan formers. ." 
 
B) "The Truth and False of the United States' `China 
Threat Theories'" 
 
The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" 
[circulation: 600,000] editorialized (7/1): 
 
". China's military threat and economic infiltration 
contributed to the rise of `China Threat Theories' in 
the United States.  One most impressive thing is that 
one famous U.S. magazine, The Atlantic Monthly, carried 
in its June edition a highlighted banner-headline that 
read `How Would the United States Fight China,' and it 
spent pages analyzing China's military buildup [to 
conclude that it] has exceeded U.S. expectations.  The 
report also pointed out that China would be a rivalry 
that is even harder to deal with than Russia. 
 
"Judged from the perspective of economics, the 
acquisition of Unocal by The China National Offshore 
Oil Corporation is not purely a business move in the 
eyes of Americans who `have a fear of China.'  If, 
however, [one] views the facts that China's Lenovo 
Group bought IBM's personal computer department at the 
end of 2004, and the Haier Group plans to buy the 
Maytag Company, there is no wonder that the United 
States has started to have worries. 
 
"To sum up the development of these situations, 
outsiders might easily come up with the impression that 
U.S.-China relations have gone through a period of 
relative stability for a short time, and they are now 
about to enter a new wave of dtente.  As to Taiwan, 
does it mean there will be some kind of new adjustments 
and reinforcements in Taiwan-U.S. relations?  It is 
believed that more than a few people in Taiwan expect 
such a possibility [of new adjustments and 
reinforcements].  Expectations, however, cannot come up 
against reality; one's own wishful thinking can only 
bring more frustration. . 
 
". At the end of 2004, Beijing University conducted a 
consultative survey to assess the risk regarding the 
future of China in 2010.  Nearly 70 percent of 98 
government and non-government experts said they believe 
major crises might break out in China in 2010.  Among 
these crises, the `social crisis' (the gaps between 
urban and rural areas, as well as the poor and the 
rich, unemployment, problems facing farmers) would be 
the most serious one.  The ratio of `national defense 
crisis' is unexpectedly low (less than five percent), 
which shows that the Chinese elites do not consider 
dealing with foreign enemies should be an urgent 
matter.  To some extent, they rule out the possibility 
of U.S.-China military confrontations for the next few 
years.  The only variable, however, is the `Taiwan 
issue.'  In this changing environment, what kind of 
`variable' Taiwan wants to become is a test of 
political wisdom." 
 
PAAL