US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD2805

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 002805 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2025 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, EPET, IZ, National Assembly, United Iraqi Alliance 
SUBJECT: TNA MEMBER QASIM DAOUD ON CONSTITUTION, SISTANI, 
AND POSSIBLE BREAKUP OF UNITED IRAQI ALLIANCE 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Ford. 
Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY.  Prominent Shia political figure, 
parliamentarian and Assembly constitutional committee 
member Qasim Daoud said 30 June the committee has been 
reluctant to confront sensitive issues such as Kirkuk, 
federalism, and Arab identity.  Daoud supported the 
TAL language for Arab identity that says only "Arabs 
of Iraq are part of the Arab nation".  Daoud said he 
met last week with Sistani who held reservations about 
federalism.  Reportedly, Sistani worried that 
neighboring countries would interfere in Iraq without 
a strong central government.  Sistani allegedly shared 
the USG view that the central government should own 
Iraq's natural resources.  According to Daoud, Sistani 
also believes that the electoral law be changed to 
multiple rather than a single electoral district for 
the next elections.  Daoud opined that in the next 
elections the Shia Islamist party SCIRI would seek to 
run without entangling alliances.  By contrast, hardj- 
line Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr would likely with 
Deputy Prime Minister Chalabi for the December 
elections.  Daoud, who had been on Prime Minister's 
Allawi election list, said he probably would jump ship 
to join SCIRI given its grassroots support made 
possible by extensive Iranian patronage.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Views on Federalism and Arab Identity 
------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C/NF) TNA constitutional committee member Qassim 
Daoud told Poloff 30 June he believes the committee 
will make the constitution deadline, although he 
admitted the committee is avoiding crucial issues like 
federalism, Kirkuk, and Iraq's Arab identity rather 
than confronting them outright.  Having so many of the 
committee's key players out of Iraq has slowed 
progress.  Moreover, broad agreements will be even 
harder once the Sunni Arabs join the committee in 
force, Daoud predicted.  Daoud also commented about: 
 
--ARAB IDENTITY:  Daoud said he would support the TAL 
language that states the "Arabs of Iraq are part of 
the Arab nation".  Iraq is multi-ethnic and it is not 
fair to force an Arab identity on them, he mused. 
 
--FEDERALISM:  Daoud listened to the USG position as 
relayed by PolOff that the central government should 
own Iraq's resources.  (Note:  Daoud in septel was the 
first one to raise with PolOff the proposal that 
natural resources would be owned by the regions, and 
revenues would be split 50/50 by the center and 
regions.)  Daoud responded that Sistani also wanted 
natural resources to be owned by the central 
government.  Daoud asked USG position on one large 
Southern Shia region.  PolOff responded that we would 
support a federal structure that promotes the unity of 
Iraq.  One large "Shia state" in the South might 
incite sectarian divisions, suggested PolOff. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Daoud and VP 'Abd al Mehdi Visit Ayatollah Sistani 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
3.  (C/NF) Daoud detailed 30 June his and Vice 
President Abdel Mehdi's visit to Nasiriyah and Najaf, 
which he described as very productive and encouraging. 
In Nasiriyah, they were received by hundreds of people 
and were able to mingle with and discuss the 
constitution with them.  Daoud said he was struck at 
how peaceful the area was and yet so impoverished; he 
bemoaned the lack of reconstruction projects in the 
area to date.  Daoud complained that the US, NGOs, and 
the ITG always used the excuse of "security" for 
slowing reconstruction efforts; he asserted this 
argument holds no water in the South. 
 
4.  (C/NF) Daoud said Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani 
remained suspicious about federalism.  According to 
Daoud, Sistani fears a weak central government will 
draw neighboring countries to interfere in Iraqi 
affairs.  Daoud said Sistani specifically mentioned 
Iranian interference:  he feared that if there were 
Shia regions in the South with significant 
responsibility and autonomy, Iran would have a greater 
opportunity to build strong and overly influential 
relationships with them. 
 
5.  (C/NF) Daoud also reported that Sistani also 
stressed he would intervene in Iraqi politics again if 
the electoral system is not changed before the next 
election.  Sistani believed the system must be changed 
from single-district to provincial-based elections, 
which would prevent Kurdish fraud from affecting the 
number of representatives allotted the rest of the 
country and could also encourage greater Sunni 
participation.  (Note:  PolOff told him the IECI would 
need to be apprised immediately of changes in the 
election system so that it could do its own planning. 
Daoud said he would raise the issue with them.  A new 
election law could be necessary.  End Note.) 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
Daoud Claims UIA to Break Apart, Might Join SCIRI 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
6.  (C/NF) Daoud said that the United Iraqi Alliance 
is falling apart and will not stand for the next 
elections.  SCIRI wants to go it alone and Muqtada al- 
Sadr is likely to split off with Chalabi, he 
continued.  (Note:  Chalabi deputy Nabil al-Mussawi 
separately claimed to PolOff 29 June that the INC 
hopes to soon announce its official intention to leave 
the UIA.  Mussawi said they are trying to solidify the 
alliance with Muqtada al-Sadr.) 
 
7.  (C/NF) Daoud said Da'wa will also go on its own 
but will be hamstrung by its lack of grassroots 
support.  Daoud believes Allawi will pair up with the 
Sunnis.  Daoud said he could not join with Allawi, 
going so far as to call him a "dictator" because of 
his conspiratorial mindset and leadership style. 
Daoud added that Allawi has even rejected Daoud's 
attempts to meet with him because he thinks Daoud 
betrayed him by wanting to join the government when 
Allawi opposed the idea.  Daoud claimed over half of 
Allawi's Iraqiya bloc in the Assembly (23 individuals) 
wanted to leave the list with him.  However, he 
convinced them to remain with al-Iraqiya for the time 
being to avoid showing outright dissension within the 
list. 
 
8.  (C/NF) In the next elections, Daoud said he will 
probably join a political alliance with SCIRI, 
pointing to his close ties to VP 'Abd al Mehdi.  Daoud 
said SCIRI lacked a cohesive or strong ideology unlike 
Da'wa with its extensive writings of its Islamist 
creed.  Moreover, SCIRI has been very successful at 
building significant grassroots support in Iraq 
through its TV channel, al-Furat.  SCIRI also benefits 
from its support for Shia religious events like Ashura 
to capitalize on the three million people that attend 
them.  Daoud claimed the reason for SCIRI's success 
was financing -- which he acknowledged came from Iran. 
On overall Iranian political support for Iraqi 
parties, Daoud posited that SCIRI was the largest 
benefactor, followed by Da'wa, and then Ahmed Chalabi. 
 
---------------------------- 
Daoud to Visit Iran in August 
---------------------------- 
 
9.  (C/NF) Daoud said he was still in a wait and see 
mode about the new Iranian President Mahmad 
Ahmadinejad.  He will have a better idea in late 
August when he visits Tehran at the invitation of 
President Khatami.  What most concern Daoud are 
Iranian nuclear ambitions and their interference in 
Iraqi affairs.  He claims he will address these 
matters on his visit. 
 
10.  (C/NF) Comment:  We have heard from others that 
the UIA is starting to disintegrate, but we assess it 
will likely hold together until the December 
elections.  It still shows signs of functionality; for 
example, the 21-man leadership committee still holds 
frequent meetings.  Daoud's split from Allawi will 
deal a large blow to Allawi's secular support base; 
Daoud jumping to SCIRI will let the Shia Islamist 
party claim the backing of a major "secular" Shia.  It 
is not surprising Daoud would choose this new 
alignment given his significant contacts to Sistani 
and the hawza and his obvious ambition.  Daoud has 
striven hard to maintain positive relations with all 
of the Iraqi political entities, such as the Islamists 
and Kurds, in order to secure his own political 
standing. 
 
11.  (C/NF) Comment continued:  Regarding the 
federalism issue, if Daoud is to be believed, 
Sistani's position appears to be close to ours with 
respect to the central government's ownership of 
natural resources.  Daoud has been one of the backers 
of regional ownership and we will watch with interest 
if Sistani's dislike of the idea will sway him and 
other members of the constitutional committee.  Kurds, 
of course, will continue to press hard for regional 
ownership.  This will be a key element of the 
federalism debate. 
 
12.  (U) REO HILLA, REO BASRA, REO MOSUL, and REO 
KIRKUK, minimize considered. 
 
 
 
Satterfield