US embassy cable - 05PRETORIA2599

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 002599 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR S, P, AF, AF/S; NSC FOR AFRICA DIRECTOR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, ELAB, ECON, PINR, SF 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION TO MBEKI'S POLICIES AT ANC CONFERENCE 
IN PRETORIA 
 
REF: PRETORIA 02333 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Jendayi E. Frazer. 
Reasons:  1.4 (B&D). 
 
1. (U)  Summary:  There appeared to be a popular revolt by 
provincial representatives against South African President 
Thabo Mbeki's proposed program to legislate a dual economy 
and redesign the ruling ANC party on the first day (June 30) 
of a four-day ANC National General Council (NGC) conference 
in Pretoria. Pressure by supporters of fired former Deputy 
President Jacob Zuma also led to a reversal of Zuma's 
decision to resign as ANC Deputy President pending the 
outcome of his trial in Durban on two counts of corruption. 
Municipal elections in December or early 2006 could indicate 
a weakening trend in the  dominance of the ANC, a party in 
increasing disunity.  End Summary. 
 
2. (U) Reportedly, ANC delegates from key provinces (Eastern 
Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and the Free State) at the June 
30-July 3 ANC National General Council (NGC) meeting at the 
University of Pretoria are poised to reject two discussion 
documents: "Development and Underdevelopment" and "The 
Organization Design of the ANC."  A July 1 Mail&Guardian 
newspaper report noted that this move could derail ANC 
President Thabo Mbeki's plans to legislate a dual labor 
market by easing or eliminating high labor costs and 
regulations to address the unemployment rate and also hamper 
a move toward a more technocratic ANC with recalcitrant 
branches and provinces being brought more firmly under the 
control of Luthuli House (ANC Headquarters in Johannesburg), 
respectively. 
 
3. (U)  There was also a groundswell of support at the 
conference for former Deputy President Jacob Zuma.  Mbeki had 
fired Zuma on June 14 in the wake of the early June 
conviction of Zuma's former financial advisor for corruption 
and fraud and Zuma's indictment on two counts of corruption. 
Zuma and Mbeki entered the conference together, avoiding 
different receptions from their supporters and sat 
collegially next to each other.  Zuma's KZN supporters wore 
t-shirts pronouncing his innocence. 
 
4. (C) Unusually, diplomats have not been invited to attend 
any sessions of the ANC NGC, including the opening meeting, 
which, according to a reliable source, started two hours late 
due to efforts to keep the Zuma issue off of the agenda 
completely and get on with the course of business.  Our 
source stated that "everyone was for Zuma" and not one 
liberation song was sung in honor of Mbeki, but Mandela, 
Zuma, and Oliver Tambo's wife received several songs.  All 
but one of South Africa's nine provinces (Gauteng where party 
discipline held), the ANCYL, and COSATU wanted Zuma to 
participate in the ANC National Executive Council (NEC) 
meeting and demanded that he retain his position as ANC 
Deputy President, notwithstanding his firing as the SAG 
Deputy President. 
 
5. (C) Zuma, our source stated, came out and said that no one 
had forced him to not participate in ANC affairs, affirming 
that it was his decision alone.  However, Zuma noted that 
since it was the "sentiment of the movement" and the peoples' 
wish that he continue to serve in party affairs, he would do 
so.  Our source affirmed that it was a showdown, and Zuma, 
who welcomed charges and his day in court, won the day.  The 
source also stated that people do not like Mbeki's economic 
policies, and he does not know how to deliver his message on 
those policies.  For example, he does not even symbolically 
deal with the challenges in the townships.  The source saw a 
parallel to the situation in Zimbabwe, whereby the 
unpopularity of Mbeki's policies could allow populism to win 
the day. 
 
6. (U) Nonetheless, ANC leaders opened the conference with a 
show of unity, with renewed criticism of patronage and 
factionalism within the party, dominant themes from Luthuli 
House in recent weeks.  ANC Secretary General Kgalema 
Motlanthe claimed that the single-minded pursuit of access to 
and control of public resources and ascendancy to authority 
by ANC cadres threatened to paralyze the party.  The central 
challenge was "to address the problems that arise from our 
cadres susceptibility to moral decay occasioned by the 
struggle for the control of and access to resources."  He 
noted that recent grassroots protests over poor municipal 
service delivery was a direct consequence of growing 
patronage in the party, fueling the perception that the ANC 
only comes at election time. He reportedly questioned the 
correctness of public servants having business interests that 
do not predate assumption of public office and suggested an 
automatic review by "a dedicated government agency" to 
eliminate any conflict of interest. 
 
7. (U) Motlanthe bemoaned the disconnect between party 
structures and the government the ANC controls, resulting in 
a breakdown of trust between provincial ANC structures and 
the provincial executive council.  The result, he said, was 
"parallelism" between the ANC and government structures, 
citing the Eastern Cape, Western Cape and the Free State 
Provinces as prime examples of this problem. 
 
8. (U) According to press reports, Mbeki stated that the NGC 
had to answer questions about how the branches and other 
structures of the ANC could help achieve the national 
democratic revolution and assess progress it had made 
promoting its principles, eradicating poverty, and improving 
social cohesion. 
9. (C) Comment:  The ANC indeed appears to be in increasing 
disunity.  The rank and file forced senior ANC leaders to 
backtrack on the decision to omit the Zuma issue from the 
NGC's agenda, demonstrating a fundamental difference of 
opinion with Mbeki on his handling of the matter and throwing 
a political lifeline to Zuma.  Although initial reaction to 
Zuma's firing was muted and Mbeki's popularity rose in some 
elements of South African society, there obviously is strong 
on-going grassroots and ANC support for Zuma.  Moreover, ANC 
branches are functioning in only half of the country's 
municipal wards, as indicated by violent protests over poor 
delivery of services and some ANC members' lead role in 
creating structures outside the ANC.  The municipal elections 
scheduled for December or early 2006 could be an indication 
of a weakening trend in the ANC dominance in South Africa, if 
any of the opposition parties were in a position to take 
advantage of ANC vulnerability. 
FRAZER