US embassy cable - 02ABUJA2521

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 002521 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, NI 
SUBJECT: SOLOMON LAR'S READOUT OF NIGERIA'S POLITICAL SCENE 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER; REASONS 1.5(B & D). 
 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Chief Solomon Lar, a longtime Middle Belt 
politician and former Chairman of the PDP, told Ambassador on 
August 19 that President Obasanjo was in a strong position to 
win a second presidential term, even if facing Ibrahim 
Babangida.  Lar also predicted that Obasanjo would be able to 
regain the support of the Tiv, one of the most numerous and 
important Middle Belt ethnic groups and still waiting for an 
apology from the President for the government's role in the 
recent army massacre in Benue State.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
2.  (C) Perennial Plateau State politician Dr. Solomon Lar 
met with Ambassador and Poloff on August 19 and offered a 
snapshot of the Nigerian political scene, particularly on 
President Obasanjo's prospects for re-election.  Responding 
to the Ambassador's question, Lar said that if former 
military ruler Ibrahim Babangida (IBB) were Obasanjo's main 
opponent for the presidency, Obasanjo would emerge 
victorious.  Lar speculated that Katsina and Sokoto states 
would support Obasanjo.  He also thought that Kano, Kebbi and 
Kaduna would split between the two candidates, commenting 
that throughout northern Nigeria, IBB's sentimental support 
as a northerner would be tempered by the negative memories of 
his regime and transgressions against domestic interests in 
many areas. 
 
 
3.  (C)  In his assessment of Obasanjo's prospects in the 
Middle Belt region, Lar was equally optimistic.  He thought 
that Obasanjo, a Christian, would be able to appeal to the 
embattled feelings of Christians in the area.  Further, Lar 
guaranteed that he would "deliver" the Tivs to the Obasanjo 
camp.  He dismissed the resentment among the Tivs (stemming 
from the army's disastrous response to communal violence), 
saying that at the end of the day, they would come back to 
Obasanjo's PDP.  Ambassador Jeter noted that the Tivs had 
demanded a public apology from the President, but Lar 
dismissed the demand without commenting on whether Obasanjo 
would offer one. 
 
 
4.  (C)  COMMENT:  Lar has been involved in Middle Belt 
politics for decades, and even in his seventies is striving 
to remain relevant in a society which is searching for fresh 
faces.  His relocation to Abuja, away from his power base in 
Plateau State, is an indication of the lengths he will go in 
order to remain at the center of action and is a possible 
sign of the weakening of his support among the younger 
generation of Middle Belt politicos.  Whether or not he 
remains a relevant player on the regional scene, Lar's 
assessment of Obasanjo's prospects is influenced by his 
closeness to the Presidency and his efforts to convince it of 
his own importance. 
JETER