US embassy cable - 05PARIS4616

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 004616 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA; 
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA 
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR 
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; 
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - 
PARIS - FRIDAY, JULY 01, 2005 
 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
IRAQ - BUSH SPEECH 
IRAN 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
DOMESTIC AND EUROPEAN STORIES ARE PROMINENTLY FEATURED ON 
TODAY'S FRONT PAGES, WITH THE UK TAKING OVER THE EU PRESIDENCY 
AND PM DE VILLEPIN HAVING GIVEN YESTERDAY A PRESS CONFERENCE 
ON HIS FIRST THIRTY DAYS IN OFFICE. 
 
"BLAIR TAKES COMMAND OF EUROPE" HEADLINES LE FIGARO, ADDING: 
"GREAT BRITAIN INHERITS A WEAKENED EUROPE, IN THE GRIPS OF AN 
EXISTENTIAL CRISIS, AND UNHINDERED BY THE HEGEMONY OF THE 
FRANCO-GERMAN COUPLE." LAURE MANDEVILLE WRITES: "THE NEW 
EASTERN EUROPEAN MEMBERS HAVE FALLEN UNDER THE CHARM OF TONY 
BLAIR. THEY SHARE HIS POSITION ON NATO AND ON RELATIONS WITH 
THE U.S. AS THE KEY TO EUROPEAN SECURITY." FOR FRANCE SOIR, 
BLAIR IS "THE MASTER OF EUROPE." "BLAIR HAS A FREE HAND TO 
REMODEL EUROPE TO HIS TASTE. HE WILL BENEFIT FROM THE WEAKENED 
CHIRAC-SCHROEDER TANDEM." 
 
AN OP-ED ON FRANCE AND THE EU REFERENDUM IN LE FIGARO BY 
SYLVIE GOULARD OF CERI COMMENTS: "SAYING TO THE FRENCH THAT 
THEY WILL BE ABLE TO DURABLY ENJOY THE ADVANTAGES OF EUROPEAN 
INTEGRATION WITHOUT THEM HAVING TO ADAPT IS AN ILLUSION. THE 
EU PROJECT DEMANDS CHANGES. WHAT IS FRANCE READY TO DO FOR 
EUROPE? IF THE U.S. REJECTS GERMANY AS A USNC MEMBER, OUR 
IMMEDIATE RESPONSE SHOULD BE SHARING OUR PERMANENT SEAT WITH 
GERMANY TO SERVE THE EU'S COMMON FOREIGN POLICY." 
 
IRAN AND AHMADINEJAD'S ELECTION CONTINUE TO ELICIT COMMENTARY. 
ANTOINE BASBOUS OF THE OBSERVATORY FOR ARAB COUNTRIES PENS AN 
OP-ED IN LE FIGARO AND CONCLUDES THAT "THE ELECTION OF 
AHMADINEJAD MARKS THE RADICALIZATION OF A KOMEYNI-STYLE 
REGIME." (SEE PART C) 
 
IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LES ECHOS SENIOR EDITORIALIST JACQUES 
HUBERT-RODIER PENS A COMMENTARY ON IRAQ, "PULL OUT OR 
RETREAT?" (SEE PART C) 
 
LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION DEVOTES A FULL-PAGE ACCOUNT TO 
BERLUSCONI'S "EMBARRASSMENT" OVER THE ALLEGED KIDNAPPING OF 
IMAM ABU AMAR BY CIA OPERATIVES: "THE U.S. AMBASSADOR TO ROME 
WAS SUMMONED BY BERLUSCONI TO `CLARIFY THE SITUATION.' THE 
AFFAIR IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROBLEMATIC FOR THE ITALIAN 
GOVERNMENT, ONE OF THE STAUNCHEST SUPPORTERS OF PRESIDENT BUSH 
AND HIS ANTI-TERRORIST CRUSADE. FOR THE FIRST TIME, THE 
JUDICIAL ARM OF AN ALLIED COUNTRY IS OFFICIALLY ASKING 
WASHINGTON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE KIDNAPPING OF INDIVIDUALS WITH 
TIES TO ISLAMIC GROUPS." 
 
CATHOLIC LA CROIX DEVOTES ITS LEAD TO TODAY'S "WORLDWIDE 
MOBILIZATION FOR AFRICA" AS NGO'S CALL TO ERADICATE POVERTY 
AND RESPECT THE OBJECTIVES SET BY THE MILLENNIUM ACCOUNT LESS 
THAN A WEEK BEFORE THE START OF THE G-8. 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
IRAQ - BUSH SPEECH 
 
"PULLOUT OR RETREAT FROM IRAQ?" 
JACQUES HUBERT-RODIER IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LES ECHOS (07/01): 
"IRAQ IS ON THE BRINK OF A CIVIL WAR. CONSIDERING THE RISKS 
FOR THE REGION'S STABILITY, ONE MIGHT HAVE EXPECTED A NEW 
VISION. WHICH THE U.S. PRESIDENT DID NOT PROVIDE. NO ONE WANTS 
CHAOS OR A CIVIL WAR IN IRAQ. THE QUESTION TODAY IS HOW TO 
STABILIZE IRAQ AND THROUGH WHICH MEANS. AND THIS IS EXACTLY 
THE QUESTION TO WHICH PRESIDENT BUSH DID NOT BRING AN ANSWER. 
HE REJECTED THE POSSIBILITY OF A PROGRESSIVE PULLOUT CALENDAR. 
THIS POSITION MAKES EVEN MORE DIFFICULT THE RETURN TO FULL 
IRAQI SOVEREIGNTY. IF GEORGE BUSH DOES NOT BEGIN TO PLAN FOR A 
PROGRESSIVE PULLOUT FROM IRAQ HIS SOLDIERS COULD WELL BE STUCK 
IN THE IRAQI QUAGMIRE. AN EXIT STRATEGY WOULD REQUIRE THAT 
OTHER COUNTRIES SEND TROOPS AND/OR RE-ENFORCE THEIR MILITARY 
PRESENCE. A DIFFICULT PROSPECT WHEN IN FACT THE TREND IS 
EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE." 
IRAN 
"A RETURN TO RADICAL KHOMEYNISM" 
ANTOINE BASBOUS OF THE OBSERVATORY FOR ARAB COUNTRIES IN RIGHT- 
OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (07/01): "AHMADINEJAD WAS ABLE TO CHARM 
IRAN'S ISLAMIC AND POPULAR ELECTORATE. IN THE SHORT TERM, ONE 
CANNOT EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT IN RELATIONS WITH WASHINGTON. 
TEHRAN COULD BE TEMPTED TO ATTRACT AND FAVOR EUROPEAN ECONOMIC 
INTERESTS IN ORDER TO UNDERMINE U.S. INTERESTS AND DIVIDE THE 
WEST. BUT IRAN IS INCREASINGLY TURNING TOWARDS INDIA AND 
CHINA. HOPING TO BENEFIT FROM A CHINESE VETO AT THE UNSC IN 
CASE OF A DEMAND FOR SANCTIONS. THE NEO-CONSERVATIVES FROM 
WASHINGTON AND TEHRAN HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF GETTING TOGETHER. 
EACH TEAM MISTRUSTS THE OTHER. WASHINGTON HAS NEITHER 
FORGOTTEN NOR FORGIVEN THE HOSTAGE TAKING IN 1979. AND THE 
IRANIANS HAVE A LONG LIST OF GRIEVANCES AGAINST THE AMERICANS. 
THE FRACTURE LINE IS LONG, EXTENDING FROM IRAQ TO AFGHANISTAN, 
AND FROM TERRORISM TO PROLIFERATION. ON THIS LAST POINT, 
AMERICANS AND EUROPEANS OFTEN SHARE THE SAME ANALYSIS AND 
INTERESTS. BUT BECAUSE THIS IS AN ISSUE DEAR TO THE RELIGIOUS 
GUIDE OF THE REPUBLIC, NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. THE 
`NEW' IRAN'S REGIONAL POLICY WILL BRING RENEWED SUPPORT TO THE 
RADICALS, WITH LEBANON'S HEZBOLLAH ALREADY REJOICING. BUT IN 
IRAN AS ELSEWHERE, CAMPAIGN PROMISES NEED TO BE INTERPRETED 
WITH CAUTION. CHANCES ARE THAT ECONOMIC AND INTERNATIONAL 
REALISM WILL DICTATE A LESS DOCTRINAL AND IDEOLOGICAL STANCE 
IN IRAN. STILL, AHMADINEJAD'S POLITICAL PROMOTION SIGNALS A 
MORE HARD-LINE APPROACH BY THE REGIME AND A RETURN TO RADICAL 
KHOMEYNISM. IN PREPARATION FOR A CONFRONTATION WITH IRAN'S 
`NEW AMERICAN NEIGHBOR.' TEHRAN IS DEVELOPING THE `COMPLEX OF 
THE BESIEGED,' EVEN THOUGH THE AMERICAN `TIGER' IS WEAKENED - 
BUT NOT BEATEN - BY THE WAR IN IRAQ." STAPLETON