US embassy cable - 05MANILA3046

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANILA 003046 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/PMBS, INR/EAP, EAP/PD, DS/ITA, DS/IP/EAP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PINR, KPAO, ASEC, RP 
SUBJECT: ARROYO STEADYING THE SHIP 
 
REF: A. OPS CENTER - MANILA 07-01-05 TELECON 
 
     B. MANILA 2993 
     C. MANILA 2887 
     D. MANILA 2840 
     E. MANILA 2815 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Andrew McClearn for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  The political scene in Manila continues to 
be lively but not truly turbulent.  During a day trip outside 
of Manila, President Arroyo vowed to bring the country out of 
"political and economic deterioration."  According to her 
son, the president's mood was good and she was confident of 
weathering the storm.  Former president Aquino urged 
Filipinos to remain peaceful and loyal to the Constitution. 
Hearings in the House and Senate over the tape and illegal 
gambling scandals continue.  The audiotapes may provide new 
revelations not only about the President's conduct during the 
May 2004 elections but also about alleged opposition 
misdeeds.  Although an impeachment motion is moving forward, 
no official votes to refer it to the Senate could take place 
until the next Congressional session begins on July 25; the 
prospect of impeachment remains unlikely.  The opposition 
continues to hold anti-Arroyo rallies, but turnout remains 
relatively small.  Arroyo is under pressure, but seems to be 
having some success in steadying the ship.  End Summary. 
 
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Arroyo Carries On 
----------------- 
 
2.  (U) President Arroyo visited Iloilo City in the central 
Philippines on June 30.  She proclaimed that "I am committed 
to moving this nation up from political and economic 
deterioration to an age of change and renewal."  The 
president also expressed deep concern over the cost of oil 
and its impact on the economy.  The trip out of Manila was 
the first that Arroyo has taken since she apologized to the 
Filipino people in her June 27 address. 
 
3.  (C) On July 2, Charge will join President Arroyo at 
Malacanang Palace to inaugurate the "Filipino People's 
Initiatives Against Trafficking Road Show Campaign."  USAID, 
through its Rule of Law Effectiveness Project, will fund the 
initial phase of this effort.  The event was originally 
slated to take place at a site in Samar Island in the central 
Philippines, but, according to the Malacanang handler, the 
President preferred to remain in Manila "for obvious reasons." 
 
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Family Bravado 
-------------- 
 
4.  (C) In a June 30 meeting with Acting Pol/C met, 
presidential son and Congressman Juan Miguel "Mikey" Arroyo 
said his mother was "tough," her mood was good, and she was 
confident of weathering the storm.  Mikey claimed that "once 
the tensions subside, you will see that my mother has emerged 
stronger than ever."  Mikey described the opposition as 
"destructive."  Mikey insisted that he had no plans to resign 
from office, nor did his uncle, Congressman Ignacio "Iggy" 
Arroyo, although Mikey remains on an official "leave of 
absence."  Mikey plans to join his father on a trip to 
California on or about July 5.  (Comment:  While Mikey's 
words were cocky, his body language was clearly nervous.  He 
eschewed his usual expensive wardrobe and trademark 
top-of-the-line Rolex for a distinctly inconspicuous look. 
End comment) 
 
5.  (SBU) The First Gentleman departed for Hong Kong with his 
other son and family and their nanny on June 30.  However, 
the Sandiganbayan court has summoned him to appear on July 4 
for the trial of former president Joseph Estrada.  According 
to defense lawyer and former Senator Rene Saguisag, he plans 
to prove that Mike Arroyo plotted to overthrow the Estrada 
presidency together with his wife, who was then vice 
president.  It is not clear whether Mike intends to answer 
the summons or ask for a postponement. 
 
-------------- 
Voices of calm 
-------------- 
 
6.  (U) Former president Corazon Aquino publicly urged 
Filipinos to remain peaceful and loyal to the Constitution. 
In a June 30 televised press conference, Aquino said she had 
visited Susan Roces, widow of former Arroyo foe Fernando Poe 
Jr., on June 29 and made clear that Aquino would not support 
any extralegal actions.  Aquino encouraged the Filipino 
public to find strength in prayer and said that "people power 
has succeeded only if it is for others... and not personal 
political gain."  Aquino added "there is no need to step 
outside the Constitution, since doing so would expose us to 
greater danger than the injustice we want to correct." 
Aquino plans to attend a prayer rally late July 1.  (Charge 
will meet with Aquino on July 7 for a private lunch.) 
 
7.  (C) According to Monsignor "Ding" Coronel, the General 
Secretary of the Catholic Bishop's Conference of the 
 
SIPDIS 
Philippines (CBCP), Aquino remained very close to Manila 
Archbishop Gaudencio Rosales, other members of the Catholic 
hierarchy, and many rank-and-file priests and nuns.  He 
remarked that she had become much more active in politics of 
late, including the June 26 joint call with Archbishop 
Rosales on President Arroyo.  Coronel commented that Aquino, 
in meetings with Church leaders, had expressed interest in 
the formation of a "truth commission" that would look into 
the May 2004 election and ways to reform the electoral 
system.  Coronel added that the CBCP will issued statements 
regarding the situation during its annual meeting in Manila, 
which will be held July 4-11.  The "Social Action" office of 
the CBCP issued a statement on June 30 calling for "national 
sobriety" and non-violence. 
 
---------------- 
Hearings Plod On 
---------------- 
 
8.  (SBU) Hearings in the House and Senate over the tape and 
jueteng scandals continue.  The joint committee in the House 
investigating President Arroyo's role in post-2004 election 
improprieties listened to a shortened version of the tape on 
June 30.  House Minority Leader Francis Escudero won his 
motion to replay a 32-minute version of the audiotape 
allegedly containing snippets of conversations between 
President Arroyo and then-Commission on Elections (COMELEC) 
official Virgilio Garcillano.  Pro-Arroyo representatives had 
argued in favor of playing the full three hour-long 
audiotape, which reportedly also contains improper 
conversations between COMELEC officials and members of the 
opposition.  House Speaker Jose de Venecia commented that in 
the end the majority voted to go ahead and play the tapes 
"because there is nothing to hide and we want the Filipino 
people to know the truth." 
 
9.  (U) Across town at the Senate, the inquiry into jueteng 
and charges that members of President Arroyo's family engaged 
in profiteering also continued.  Committee co-chairs Manuel 
"Manny" Villar and Manuel "Lito" Lapid resisted Malacanang's 
efforts to turn the investigation over to the Office of the 
Ombudsman.  Villar issued a statement that the Senate would 
not tolerate intimidation of witnesses, after Archbishop 
Oscar Cruz, an anti-jueteng advocate who has called for 
Arroyo to resign from office, repeated claims that his life 
was under threat. 
 
10.  (C) An impeachment motion filed on June 28 (ref b) was 
modified on June 30 in order to accuse Arroyo of "conduct 
unbecoming" a President.  Several opposition members claimed 
the motion was deliberately vague so that the pro-Arroyo 
majority in the House could more easily dismiss the motion on 
technical grounds.  Lawmakers have moved to include the 
motion in the order of business in the House.  According to 
July 1 comments by House administrator Artemio Adasa, the 
complaint is now on track to be referred to the 55-member 
House Committee on Justice (dominated by PGMA supporters) no 
later than the middle of August, after the next formal 
session begins on July 25.  After receiving the complaint, 
the committee must produce a report within 60 session days 
recommending whether or not the complaint has sufficient 
substance for further review by the House.  A one-third vote 
(79 members) is then needed in order to pass the impeachment 
motion on to the Senate.  Mikey Arroyo and other politicians 
have predicted privately that any impeachment motion will 
almost certainly not get far in the House given the 
pro-Arroyo majority there. 
 
------- 
Rallies 
------- 
 
11.  (U) The opposition continues to hold anti-Arroyo 
rallies, though turnout remains small by Filipino standards. 
Peaceful rallies of between 1,000 to several thousand people 
took place in the central business district of Makati on July 
1 and June 30.  In Cebu City, about 1,000 leftists rallied in 
front of the Cebu Presidential office, a.k.a., the 
"Malacanang of the South."  There were no reports of violence 
during the protests.  Opposition figures say there will be 
additional rallies in days to come. 
 
12.  (U)  The opposition has decried what its members  call 
the Administration's "clampdown on the freedom of speech," 
claiming that it has been difficult to muster crowds largely 
because Metro Manila mayors friendly to Arroyo fail to issue 
permits and the Philippine National Police (PNP) is 
"uncooperative."  Those in the pro-Arroyo camp have asserted 
that the opposition's rallies have basically been small 
because of a lack of interest among the public.  Other 
observers have noted that it is now the rainy season, which 
dampens participation and makes rallies and marches more 
difficult to pull off.  There are many allegations that 
protesters  have received payment for turning out. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
13.  (C) Arroyo remains under pressure.  The opposition 
continues its steady drumbeat against her, and she is getting 
little sign of strong support from her ostensible supporters 
(many of whom have always been lukewarm towards her). 
Expected price rises stemming from the onset of the expanded 
Value Added Tax on July 1 could also further roil the waters 
(septel will describe the limited economic impact so far of 
the political drama, along with the resignation of Secretary 
of Agriculture Yap due to charges of tax evasion).  Arroyo 
seems to be having some success in steadying the ship, 
largely by insisting that she remains focused on her 
substantive agenda.  Unless she faces dramatic slippage in 
support, perhaps due to new revelations, impeachment appears 
unlikely but the saga will continue to unfold. 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: 
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You can also access this site through the State Department's 
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http://www.state.sgov.gov/ 
 
MUSSOMELI