US embassy cable - 05ALMATY2439

UNCLAS ALMATY 002439 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREF, PHUM, PREL, KZ, UZ, KG, POLITICAL 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN READY TO ENGAGE ON UZBEK REFUGEES AND 
STABILITY -- IF KARIMOV WILL LISTEN 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary.  On June 28, Ambassador met with Foreign 
Minister Kasymzhomart Tokayev.  Ambassador raised 
developments surrounding the presence of Uzbek refugees in 
Kyrgyzstan.  Tokayev said that Kazakhstan is ready to 
cooperate with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.  In talks with 
Kyrgyz FM Roza Otunbayeva, Tokayev suggested that Kyrgyzstan 
give UNHCR the lead on refugee questions to deflect pressure 
from Uzbekistan.  Kazakhstan has been unable to engage 
Karimov on concerns over refugees/stability, but is hoping 
to use the July 5-6 Shanghai Cooperation Summit in Astana to 
address concerns over Uzbekistan's stability.  The FM was 
noncommittal when Ambassador noted the possibility that 
Uzbek refugees might look to Kazakhstan as a safe haven. 
Finally, Tokayev mentioned that he is interested in 
traveling to Washington and San Diego in early September. 
End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU) Ambassador asked for Tokayev's assessment of the 
situation in Uzbekistan.  He also solicited the FM's views 
on what can be done to help Kyrgyzstan cope with Uzbek 
refugees, particularly in standing up to pressure for their 
return. 
 
3. (SBU) Tokayev responded that elements from Uzbek 
"agencies" were operating inside Kyrgyzstan and "bribing" 
Uzbeks to return.  In recent talks with Kyrgyz FM Roza 
Otunbayeva, Tokayev told her that Kyrgyzstan should allow 
UNHCR to take the lead -- and if there is danger to 
returning refugees, Kyrgyzstan must provide shelter. 
Kazakhstan, Tokayev noted, had faced similar pressure from 
China over Uighurs.  By giving UNHCR the primary voice on 
proposing an appropriate location for shelter, pressure was 
deflected away from Astana.  Otunbayeva, he said, had 
mentioned the possibility of criminals among the refugees. 
Tokayev cautioned that unless such refugees had been 
convicted, Kyrgyzstan had to proceed cautiously in using 
this as grounds for return. 
 
4. (SBU) Kazakhstan, Tokayev continued, understands the 
sensitivity of the refugees' circumstances and the need to 
work closely with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.  However, he 
maintained that Karimov has been unwilling to discuss the 
matter.  President Nazarbayev intends to use the July 5-6 
Shanghai Cooperation Summit in Astana as an opportunity for 
bilateral and multilateral talks with Karimov.  Nazarbayev 
briefed President Putin, the FM said, during a mid-June 
visit to Moscow, and pressed for Putin's support in 
persuading Karimov that economic/trade reforms must proceed 
to avoid a "difficult" situation.  Moscow, Tokayev 
commented, felt a bit "abused" when Karimov traveled to 
China but not Russia, despite Moscow's low key response to 
events in Andizhon. 
 
5. (SBU) Ambassador replied that Uzbekistan is already in a 
"difficult" position that is steadily deteriorating.  He 
noted Uzbekistan seemed determined to isolate itself. 
Astana hoped, Tokayev said, to persuade Karimov during the 
SCO summit that Uzbekistan must avoid isolation by the 
international community.  Ambassador remarked that it may 
already be too late.  Tokayev also lamented the presence of 
so many "poor, unstable" countries in the neighborhood, but 
did not respond when Ambassador noted that refugees might 
see Kazakhstan as a safe haven. 
 
6. (SBU) Turning to future travel plans, Tokayev told 
Ambassador that he was interested in attending the 
Kazakhstan Investment Conference in San Diego, Sep 8-9.  The 
FM mentioned that he would also like to visit Washington 
during this period, and hoped to have meetings at State, 
NSC, DOD, and Energy.  Ambassador promised to work with 
Washington on this proposal. 
 
7. (U) Dushanbe minimize considered. 
 
ORDWAY 
 
 
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