US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK4284

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 004284 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/BCLTV, USPACOM FOR FPA HUSO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, TH, Cabinet Reshuffle 
SUBJECT: THAKSIN CONSIDERS CABINET CHANGES FOLLOWING 
CENSURE DEBATE 
 
REF: BANGKOK 4238 
 
 1. (U) Summary: Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra appears 
ready to make the first changes to his cabinet since his 
re-election in February.  Following an unsuccessful censure 
motion against his Minister of Transportation, the move is 
expected in mid-July and could likely involve the 
Transportation, Finance and Foreign Ministries.  The expected 
moves may only be a temporary measure before a bureaucratic 
reform measure takes effect in October, reducing the number 
of ministries by two.  As the Parliament heads into a month 
long recess in July, the lower house is trying to pass next 
year's budget and approve a constitutional amendment, all 
before the weekend. End Summary. 
 
2. (U)  Speculation increased on June 30 in Bangkok following 
the voting in Thailand's lower House of Representatives, 
which resulted in the predicted unsuccessful bid to censure 
the Minister of Transportation, Suriya Jungrungreangkit 
(Reftel).  In follow on analysis and commentary that had been 
floated over the weekend prior to this week's debate and 
vote, nearly all the daily Thai language and English language 
newspapers speculated that Suriya would be moved to a Deputy 
Prime Minister position for his inability to respond 
convincingly to questions of mismanaging the purchase of 
baggage scanners for Bangkok new international airport, which 
is scheduled to open later this year. 
 
TRANSPORTATION 
 
3. (U) Names floated for Suriya's replacement at 
Transportation include Vichit Suraphongchai, Chairman of the 
Board of Siam Commercial Bank President  and former Finance 
Minster under the Chuan administration.  He has also 
previously served as Transport Minister.  There was also a 
report that that Agriculture Minister Sudarat Keyuraphan 
might take job, but this appears unlikely as she has been 
tasked with trying to take charge of what is seen as one of 
the most corrupt ministries in the RTG.  There would also not 
appear to be a strong replacement at the Agriculture 
Ministry.  The current Minister of Commerce, Thanong Bidaya, 
was also floated to take the transport portfolio.  Suriya may 
move to be a Deputy PM in charge of transportation issues, 
likely overseeing an ambitious set of multi-million dollar 
public transportation projects recently approved by the 
Parliament. 
 
FINANCE 
 
4. (U) The current Minister of Finance, Somkid Jatusripitak, 
holds the concurrent position of Deputy Prime Minister for 
economic affairs.  It was widely reported that Somkid wanted 
to lose the Finance portfolio in March when the present 
cabinet was formed by PM Thaksin could not find a credible 
candidate to fill the job.  Now, it appears, the PM may 
appoint the former Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister 
Virabongsa Ramangkura.  Virabongsa is an economist, not an 
elected Member of Parliament who in the past has been called 
in to help governments in politically choppy waters. 
 
FOREIGN AFFAIRS 
 
5. (U) Finally, The Nation reported on June 30 (and Poloffs 
had heard rumors recently), that Deputy Prime Minister 
Surakiart Sathirathai, will return to MFA.  The Nation story 
cited sources as describing current FM Kantathi Suphamongkhon 
as "too passive for the job."  It is unclear where FM 
Kantathi would go or if he would leave RTG service.  (Note: 
Kantathi's appointment in March came as a complete surprise, 
therefore any talk of his removal and Surkiart's return 
should be taken in that light.  End note.) 
 
FROM 20 TO 18, COMING SOON 
 
6. (U) All of these rumors of a reshuffle, however, may just 
a first move before more reappointments will be made in 
October when the Science Ministry is folded in to the 
Information, Communications and Technology Ministry and the 
Culture Ministry is folded into the Ministry of Tourism and 
Sports.  The current Minister of Culture, Uraiwan Thienthong, 
is the wife of the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party's Wang Nam Yen 
faction.  After yesterday's vote, which Snoh conveniently 
missed due to "illness", he was quoted as saying, "We won the 
vote, but lost public opinion."  It appears that Uraiwan will 
be allowed to keep her portfolio until her October and the 
Snoh will be allowed to stay in the party. 
 
THE SEVEN YEAR ITCH? 
 
7. (SBU) Comment:  Political ruminations following a 
controversial censure debate are all speculation. The only 
known element as that no changes will take place without the 
involved consent of Thaksin.  It's been reported that changes 
won't be announced until after the TRT's  7th anniversary 
founding on July 14.   Nearly all the ministries mentioned 
for the shakeup are run by technocrats or economic experts 
and those new faces mentioned as possible replacements are 
well-know TRT economic insiders.  As the PM and all of his 
key economic and foreign policy advisors head for a state 
visit to China on June 30, Thaksin, as he noted to the press 
on June 29, has "a lot to think about."  End Comment. 
BOYCE