US embassy cable - 05AMMAN5230

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 005230 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, KISL, KMPI, JO 
SUBJECT: GOJ PREVIEWS NATIONAL AGENDA FOR REFORM TO COUNTER 
PUBLIC SKEPTICISM 
 
REF: A. SECTO 00033 
 
     B. AMMAN 04326 
     C. AMMAN 04125 
     D. AMMAN 02378 
 
Classified By: CDA David Hale for Reasons 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) Royal Court Minister Muasher gave a briefing to press 
June 22 on the status of the National Agenda committee, 
followed by a meeting on June 27 to discuss reform with 
private Jordanians.  Promising feasible solutions rather than 
rhetoric, Muasher stated that work on the National Agenda was 
proceeding on schedule and that the committee had already 
devised some recommendations.  Contacts indicate that 
discussions within the committee on political reform topics, 
particularly a new elections law, have been marked by sharp 
disagreement.  Separately, leaders of 15 opposition political 
parties issued their own vision for political reform.  End 
Summary. 
 
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BREAKING THE SILENCE 
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2.  (U) After months of relative silence, Marwan Muasher, 
Royal Court Minister and de facto head of the 
palace-appointed committee charged with developing a 
reformist "National Agenda" (refs C, D), updated reporters at 
a government press briefing June 22 on the committee's work. 
Highlighting some of the key challenges facing the country, 
notably poverty, unemployment and the budget deficit, Muasher 
promised that the National Agenda would avoid empty slogans 
and rhetoric, and instead produce practical recommendations 
and clear objectives designed to improve the lives of all 
Jordanians.  The committee would also identify methods and a 
time frame for implementation of its proposals, along with a 
cost estimate.  For example, Muasher said a preliminary 
recommendation to provide health insurance for all citizens 
in six years would include a timetable for adding 
beneficiaries to the insurance system each year -- and the 
resulting funds needed -- until the plan was complete.  Once 
the National Agenda is finalized in September and then 
endorsed, Muasher pledged that each ministry would be held 
accountable to a detailed "action plan" and regularly report 
on progress in implementing its directives. 
 
3.  (U) Muasher previewed a few recommendations already 
reached by the committee through discussions with outside 
experts and the reports of thematic sub-committees and 
working groups.  On the economic front, he said the committee 
would recommend less reliance on imported oil by increasing 
use of natural gas and exploring the prospects of shale oil 
in Jordan.  He was more general on political issues, stating 
that overall "principles" had been drawn that would help 
strengthen public and press freedoms, improve the status of 
women, promote an independent judiciary, and encourage 
political pluralism.  Responding to public beliefs that 
reforms were being imposed from outside Jordan (i.e., the 
U.S.) to prepare for an influx of Palestinians (ref A), 
Muasher reiterated that the National Agenda was an entirely 
national product devoid of foreign dictates, and that it was 
not intended to "dismantle (Jordan), or part of a plan for 
settlement" of Palestinian refugees. 
 
4.  (C) In another PR effort to promote the National Agenda, 
Muasher addressed a meeting of the Orthodox Club in Amman (a 
prominent private social club) on June 27 to discuss reform 
and the lifting of oil subsidies (septel).  Contacts present 
at this meeting commented that Muasher was confronted with a 
number of difficult questions by a skeptical audience.  Some 
complaints focused on the committee's mostly closed-door 
deliberations, with one audience member asking how the 
National Agenda would reflect "a national consensus" as 
promised by the government when the public was excluded from 
discussions.  Muasher reportedly kept his composure very well 
and engaged in a lively debate on the necessity of change in 
Jordan.  He emphasized that the National Agenda would not be 
laid aside by future governments as King Abdullah himself 
would guarantee its application by successive cabinets. 
 
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INTERNAL DEBATE 
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5.  (C) Both the press and Embassy contacts have reported 
that there is considerable debate within the National Agenda 
committee on sensitive political topics, particularly a new 
elections law.  In a meeting with poloff on June 29, Senator 
and committee member Ousama Melkawi confirmed that there is 
currently a sharp disagreement on the outlines of a new 
electoral system.  Specifically, within the sub-committee 
charged with examining this and other political topics (of 
which Melkawi is a member), opinions ranged from a purely 
proportional representation system that abandons individual 
districting, to a proposal favored by Melkawi that would 
increase the number of current districts by more than 
twofold.  Melkawi said this divergence was "only natural" as 
the sub-committee contained conservatives (including 
himself), liberals such as Center for Strategic Studies 
Director Mustafa Hamarneh, and Islamic Action Front (IAF) 
leader Abdul Latif Arabiyat.  When asked what would happen if 
no consensus could be reached, Melkawi speculated that a 
"majority vote" might be used to break an impasse.  He also 
rejected the idea of public hearings or open committee 
meetings, saying this would be "too chaotic" and that the 
diverse committee members adequately reflected differing 
public viewpoints. 
 
6.  (U) The IAF is apparently not waiting for the release of 
the National Agenda to trumpet its position on elections.  In 
a public statement released to the press on June 28, the IAF 
strongly denounced the current one-person, one-vote system of 
individual electoral districts.  Instead, it advocated that 
each citizen be able to choose multiple candidates from a 
nationwide list, arguing that an MP should "represent the 
nation, and not only one group of people."  The retention of 
a one-person, one-vote system, the IAF declared, would 
indicate that the government was not serious about genuine 
political reform. 
 
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A COMPETING VISION 
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7.  (U) Similar to an IAF document laying out its vision for 
comprehensive reform (ref B), the leaders of 15 political 
parties loosely grouped together in the "Opposition Parties 
Higher Coordination Committee" released a memo on June 19 
outlining their reform priorities.  Among its provisions, the 
memo called for an end to the executive authority's 
"transgression on the Constitution by issuing (provisional) 
laws when Parliament was in recess or not convened."  The 
Coordination Committee (dominated by the IAF) further 
proposed scrapping current "restrictive" laws on elections, 
political parties and public gatherings, and the abolishment 
of the Senate to create a unicameral parliament.  On the 
economy, the memo -- heavy on criticism, short on details -- 
argued for halting the privatization of natural resources 
(specifically mentioning potash and phosphates), overhauling 
the tax system, and severing all economic (and political) 
links with Israel.  After briefly meeting with these party 
leaders, PM Badran reiterated his commitment to political 
pluralism and respect for opposing views "as long as they 
abide by the Constitution and look after national interests." 
 
 
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COMMENT 
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8.  (C)  Muasher's public appearances to promote the National 
Agenda reflect growing awareness in the cabinet and the 
palace of public misgivings about the reform process (ref A). 
 While the 26-member National Agenda committee contains a 
good cross-section of private and public Jordanians covering 
the political spectrum (which has contributed to at times 
heated debate among members), the fact that its meetings 
(currently held about once a week), as well as the 
proceedings of expert working groups and sub-committees, are 
closed to the public has helped fuel conspiracy theories that 
are slowly gaining traction.  The GOJ will need to counter 
these negative perceptions with increased PR efforts to 
dispel rumors and sell the benefits of reform.  Greater 
transparency related to the National Agenda, including the 
King's recent pledge to MPs that committee members would 
shortly hold direct talks with them, will also aid in swaying 
public opinion. 
HALE