US embassy cable - 05ABUJA1155

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001155 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2015 
TAGS: PHUM, PGOV, PREL, KDEM, ASEC, NI 
SUBJECT: JUNE 12 ANNIVERSARY UNITES NIGERIAN OPPOSITION 
GROUPS 
 
REF: ABUJA 972 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for Reasons 1.4 (b) 
 and (d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) Despite a torrential rainstorm in Lagos on June 12, 
prominent opposition politicians and human rights activists 
gathered to mark the twelfth anniversary of the annulment of 
the 1993 presidential elections won by Chief MKO Abiola, 
politician and business icon who later died in detention in 
1998.  ANPP 2003 presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari met 
with top politicians from the Southwest and Southeast and 
addressed a rally in the Lagos suburb of Magodo.  The group 
paid a solidarity visit to Abiola's family, where they 
decried the annulment of the 1993 elections.  This event 
could signal a turning point in the relationship between 
opposition leaders of the Southwest, Southeast, and North, 
and could redefine the political landscape ahead of the 2007 
elections. 
 
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THE COMING TOGETHER OF STRANGE BED FELLOWS 
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2.  (U) Twelve years after Chief MKO Abiola's election was 
annulled by then-military head of state Ibrahim Babangida 
(IBB), and seven years after Abiola's death, his memory was 
again celebrated on Sunday, June 12.  Pro-democracy activists 
defied a day-long heavy downpour across the South to mark the 
day many Nigerians consider the true Democracy Day (reftel). 
The celebrations took place in many parts of the Southwest, 
including Lagos.  In a visit that took on the atmosphere of a 
campaign stop, Muhammadu Buhari, presidential candidate of 
the All Nigerians Peoples Party (ANPP) brought progressives 
and conservatives together to honor Abiola:  the winning 
candidate in elections widely viewed as the "freest elections 
in Nigeria's history."  Celebrations also took place in 
North-Central Kaduna, although much smaller and without the 
big names in attendance. 
 
3.  (U) In Lagos, many simultaneous events occurred.  At 
Yaba, prominent politicians under the auspices of United 
Action for Democracy (UAD) organized rallies at Tai Solarin 
Square while the Lagos State chapter of the ruling People's 
Democratic Party (PDP) held a press briefing at Ikeja to mark 
the event.  In the nearby Excellence Hotel, Ogba, the Oodua 
Peoples Congress (OPC), a pan-Yoruba tribal group, held a 
symposium. 
 
4.  (U) Meanwhile, Buhari led a coalition of June 12 
exponents in addressing the crowd at Magodo.  In his speech, 
Buhari told the crowd that the annulment of Chief Abiola's 
election in 1993 was a "crime against the wishes of the 
people."  He took a swipe at "the deceitful economic policies 
of the Obasanjo administration," condemning the soaring 
corruption, decay of infrastructure, insecurity, and 
electoral malpractices.  He warned that "those who annulled 
the June 12, 1993, elections are still around."  Referring to 
the 2003 elections, he stated that in Nigerian math classes, 
students are being taught that "6-1-2 is equal to 4-1-9," a 
reference to the dates of the 1993 and 2003 elections. 
(Note:  "4-1-9" is the section of the criminal code dealing 
with advance fee fraud.  End Note.) 
 
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SPEAKERS KNOCK OBASANJO 
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5.  (SBU) Buhari argued that the lessons of the June 12, 1993 
elections are that, contrary to the belief of the elites, 
"ethnicity and religion are only weapons in the hands of 
extremists, liars, and unpatriotic elements that use them for 
selfish goals."  He said that the elites "balkanize the 
country by building cleavages of hatred among groups. They 
divide ethnic groups into sub-cultural bases and their 
religion into sects, thus raising tension and making the 
country vulnerable to crisis."  Buhari also condemned the 
apparent ineffectiveness of the National Assembly, saying 
"the legislature we have under this system can be described 
as a rubber stamp or even an extension of the executive." 
Perhaps emboldened by the positive crowd reaction, he 
declared the ruling PDP "dead," saying "all we need is to 
unite and organize a burial party." 
 
6.  (U) Lagos State Governor Bola Tinubu, an Abiola aide in 
1993, said that June 12 represents transparency, 
accountability, and true federalism.  He noted that June 12 
represented a struggle between progressive forces and 
reactionaries, and urged Nigerians to resist the "imperialist 
rule in Abuja."  He admonished the federal government for 
disobeying court verdicts pointing out that there would be no 
genuine democracy without the rule of law.  In his speech, 
Senator Tokunbo Afikuyomi (Lagos West) regretted that 
Obasanjo, the greatest beneficiary of the June 12 struggle, 
had done nothing to immortalize Abiola, the symbol of that 
struggle. 
 
7.  (U) Long-time Igbo leader Dim Chukwuemeka Ojukwu, All 
Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) presidential candidate in 
2003, and former Information Minister and ANPP leader Chief 
John Nnia Nwodo were billed to lead the Southeastern 
delegation to the event, but did not arrive on time.  The 
airports had been closed due to the heavy rains and two 
airline accidents earlier in the day, one at Lagos, the other 
at Jos.  They sent messages via their cell phones and 
expressed their support for the democratic struggle. 
 
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BUHARI VISITS ABIOLA'S FAMILY 
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8.  (C) Buhari paid a visit to the Abiola family, where he 
was warmly received.  The public relations aspect of the 
visit was not lost on anyone, and his attention to the June 
12 anniversary was appreciated by the family and assembled 
well-wishers.  According to sources, Buhari also had a 
separate meeting with the bigwigs of the Alliance for 
Democracy (AD), one of the four major parties in Nigeria. 
Buhari's visit served to reopen communication between Tinubu, 
the only sitting AD governor, and his colleagues who were put 
out of office by the PDP in the flawed 2003 elections.  The 
fence-mending extended to the OPC and factions of another 
pan-Yoruba group, Afenifere.  One of Buhari's aides told 
PolOff that he had listened to some of the AD politicians' 
conversations while the group was assembled.  He said he 
reported to Buhari that "much of the talk sounded like 
coup-plotting."  According to the aide, Buhari replied, 
"Since that is what (Obasanjo) wants, so be it.  Let them 
talk." 
 
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"PRETENDERS" IN GOVERNMENT 
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9.  (SBU) At the Lagos Resource Center in Victoria Island, 
Father George Ehusani coordinated a symposium for  prominent 
journalists, pro-democracy activists, and opposition 
politicians, the group chose as its theme, "Challenges of 
Democracy, 12 Years After June 1993 Presidential Election." 
Some of the speakers suggested that the current people in 
power were "pretenders to the throne" and "not the real June 
12 sympathizers."  Chief Frank Ovie-Kokori, former 
Secretary-General of the oil and gas workers' union, summed 
 
SIPDIS 
up the mood of the participants:  "Those who came into power 
in 1999 were people who were not ready for governance." 
 
10.  (U) In Abeokuta, Ogun State, Abiola's home town, 
elements of the state government joined the pro-democracy 
groups to celebrate the day.  Jamiu Abiola, one of the late 
politician's sons, said he had heard of the rumored 
presidential ambition of Babangida, the architect of the 1993 
annulment.  He warned Babangida against contesting in 2007: 
"if you insist on running, the handwriting is already on the 
wall." 
 
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COMMENT 
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11.  (C) Buhari's visit to the Southwest served to reconcile 
competing factions among the political opposition and 
strengthen his standing in the region least disposed to his 
political activities.  The new friends also cooperated in 
attending a June 25 conference in London together, where it 
appears that the Buhari camp is maintaining its efforts to 
galvanize an opposition to what many Nigerians view as 
Obasanjo's "autocratic and illegal governance." 
CAMPBELL