US embassy cable - 05KUWAIT2925

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 002925 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARPI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PARM, MARR, KU, IR, KNPP 
SUBJECT: KUWAITIS EXPRESS CONCERN, UNEASE ABOUT NEW IRANIAN 
PRESIDENT 
 
REF: A. KUWAIT 2900 
     B. KUWAIT 2893 
 
Classified By: CDA Matthew Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary and Comment: Prominent Kuwaitis expressed 
unease with the recent election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as 
President of Iran during June 27 and 28 meetings with Poloff. 
 Although conceding that Ahmadinejad's election would 
probably not bring about drastic changes to Iranian foreign 
and domestic policy, most articulated concern over the 
possible strengthening of Iran's hardline elements.  Taking 
this sentiment to the extreme, well-known political scientist 
Dr. Sami Al-Faraj shared his concern that the election of 
Ahamedinejad would speed up Iran's pursuit of nuclear 
technology and lead to a shift in the regional balance of 
power in favor of Iran.  More than one person expressed the 
belief that Ahmadinejad was incapable of standing up to the 
Guardian Council and other entrenched powerful interests in 
the country, and would likely not last long.  Despite the 
GOK's official congratulations, it is clear from our contacts 
and local dailies that the election of Ahmadinejad is not 
being met with optimism.  It is likely that the 
Iranian-Kuwaiti bilateral relationship will continue to be 
characterized by unofficial wariness.  Although Kuwait takes 
pains to balance its relations with Iran by avoiding official 
criticsm, there is little doubt as to whose side it takes in 
the conflict over nuclear technology.  The GOK is likely to 
support any measure that will lead to a thawing of relations 
between the U.S. and Iran, as it would reduce the threat of 
Iranian attacks on Kuwaiti territory.  End Summary and 
Comment. 
 
Worst Case Scenario: Iran Spreads Terrorism 
------------------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) During a meeting on June 27, the director of the 
Kuwait Center for Strategic Studies, Dr. Sami Al-Faraj told 
Poloff the recent election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran 
would push Iran towards extremist policies and tip the 
balance of the power in the Gulf in the country,s favor. 
Al-Faraj argued that the combination of high oil prices and a 
buoying of hardline confidence in light of the elections 
would significantly strengthen Iranian bargaining positions 
on nuclear technology and the Kuwaiti-Iranian standoff over 
the Al-Durra gasfield.  Al-Faraj said that unlike two years 
ago, Iran is not likely to accept the "carrot" approach to 
negotiations.  A self-confessed "devil's advocate," he 
predicted Iranian negotiating positions would get tougher and 
more extreme.  Pointing out that nothing short of an attack 
on Iran,s nuclear facilities would deter the country from 
eventually obtaining nuclear weapons, he said a presumed 
attack on Iran by the U.S. or Israel would almost certainly 
lead to Iranian state-sponsored terrorism in Kuwait and other 
GCC countries hosting U.S. military forces.  Dr. Al-Faraj 
said he has been working with Kuwait's military leadership in 
an effort to prepare them for this possibility. 
 
3. (C) Al-Faraj said that all GCC countries were deeply 
concerned over both the potential environmental and national 
security implications of Iranian nuclear efforts, but would 
publicly express this concern only as an objection to the 
possible environmental threat posed by the Bushehr nuclear 
power plant. (Note: FM Dr. Sabah Al-Salem Al-Sabah has raised 
the issue of environmental damage publicly and privately 
during visits to Tehran.  End Note.)  He noted that the 
currents in the Gulf move in a clockwise direction, and 
Kuwait would bear the brunt of any environmental catastrophe 
at Bushehr. 
 
Leading Cleric Disappointed, Says Little will Change 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
4. (C) Moderate Shiite cleric Sayed Mohammed Baquer Al-Mohri 
said he was disappointed with the outcome of the Iranian 
elections during a June 28 meeting.  Lamenting the defeat of 
Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, whom he called "a great 
moderate leader,"  Al-Mohri said Ahmadinejad had already made 
alarming statements indicating he wanted to return the 
"culture of martyrdom" to Iran.  Al-Mohri said this was a 
path rejected by the religious community at Qom.  He added 
that the drafting of Iranian policy would remain in the hands 
of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council and the 
Rafsanjani-led Expediency Discernment Council. 
 
5. (C) Asked for his assessment of how Ahmadinejad had won 
the elections, Al-Mohri said he had connected successfully 
with the poor, unemployed population of Iran, winning their 
hearts and fulfilling a desire for change.  Although 
Ahmadineljad is "one of them," Al-Mohri said he doubts the 
new president will be capable of successfully governing Iran. 
 
KU Professor: Term Could End in Assassination 
--------------------------------------------- 
6. (C) Kuwait University Political Science Professor Dr. 
Abdullah Sahar agreed with Al-Mohri during a June 28 meeting 
with Poloff.  Dr. Sahar said Ahmadinejad appeared to be 
"naive" and predicted his term would end soon after it begins 
with Ahmadinejad's removal or possibly even assassination. 
He said the new president is not powerful enough to battle 
Rafsanjani, the Guardian Council and the other vested 
interests which rule Iran.  He said the Iranian desire for 
change had been responsible for Rafsanjani's loss in the 
elections.  On the nuclear issue, Dr. Sahar said that 
economic interdependence and/or military action would be the 
only ways to stop the Iranian race for nuclear weapons. 
 
MP Says Ahmadinejad Unknown; Radical Change Unlikely 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
7. (C) Noting that Ahmadinejad is still an unknown in Kuwait, 
leading Shiite MP and former Kuwaiti University Professor Dr. 
Yousef Al-Zalzalah said moderate Shiites in Kuwait had 
supported Rafsanjani once the race came down to just two 
candidates.  Al-Zalzalah said Iran is unlikley to take any 
drastic foreign policy actions given the U.S. presence in 
surrounding countries and the lessons it has learned from 
coalition action in Iraq.  Rather, he said Kuwait's major 
concern was the nuclear power plant at Bushehr, which he said 
was unsafe and could potentially severely damage the 
environment in the Gulf region. 
 
8. (C) Al-Zalzalah, who travels to Iran at least twice a 
year, said he has seen a steady decrease in the radicalism of 
the hardline regime elements over time.  He said consistent 
pressure by reformers has forced the hardliners to make small 
concessions that have added up.  He noted that the Tehran 
International Airport now receives flights from dozens of 
countries on a daily basis; this is in marked contrast to the 
years following the revolution, he said, when religious 
fervor and extremism isolated Iran from the world community. 
 
A Dissenting Opinion 
-------------------- 
 
9. (C) Offering a dissenting opinion, Shiite intellectual Dr. 
Bader Nader Al-Khodari told Poloff June 27 that Ahmadinejad 
had defeated Rafsanjani in part because Iranians felt that 
Rafsanjani would have been a "new Shah."  He said that the 
youth of Iran had voted for Ahmadinejad to protest the 
widespread corruption and drug abuse which plagues the 
country.  Praising Ahmadinejad as a simple person, he said he 
would definitely move to combat corruption, but added that he 
would face difficulty because Rafsanjani still maintains his 
postion as head of the Expediency Council. 
 
 
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