US embassy cable - 05DARESSALAAM1272

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 001272 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF AND INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  6/30/15 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINS, TZ 
SUBJECT:  IN CHARGE'S FAREWELL CALL, ZANZIBARI PRESIDENT 
KARUME BLASTS OPPOSITION, PREDICTS ELECTORAL VICTORY 
 
REF:  DAR ES SALAAM 1241 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified by Chargi d'Affaires Michael S. Owen for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  In a farewell call, Zanzibari 
President Karume thanked Chargi for USG support of the 
isles, and said he was optimistic the ruling party CCM 
would triumph at the polls in October.  Not surprisingly, 
he blamed the opposition CUF for recent difficulties 
during voter registration, but predicted polling would go 
smoothly despite CUF efforts to create unrest.  Because 
Ramadan falls just prior to the elections, Karume 
expected the final weeks of the campaign to be quiet, but 
said the security forces are ready to deal with any 
"trouble-makers."  He acknowledged the strong USG 
interest in the Zanzibari elections, and predicted that 
we would be satisfied with "the process and the outcome." 
End Summary. 
 
2.  (U)  Charge on June 17 paid a farewell call on 
Zanzibari President Abeid Karume at his State House 
residence in Stonetown, Zanzibar.  President and Mrs. 
Karume hosted Charge and wife for a lunch, and our hour- 
long one-on-one meeting in the President's study 
followed. 
 
3.  (U)  Karume began the meeting by expressing his 
sincere appreciation for U.S. assistance to Zanzibar. 
Karume noted in particular USG efforts to combat HIV/AIDS 
via PEPFAR, our sustained support for primary and 
secondary education in Zanzibar, and our steadfast public 
support for the Muafaka process.  The President also said 
he was pleased that Peace Corps volunteers are now based 
in Zanzibar once again, and related that one volunteer 
had been housed with a distant relative of his. 
 
4.  (C)  Charge reiterated our strong support for the 
Muafaka process, and noted that the USG had provided 
significant support to the Zanzibar Election Committee 
(ZEC) to help create the Permanent Voters Registry (PVR) 
and to prepare for the upcoming elections.  Charge noted 
that we continue to be concerned that there are problems 
with the PVR, and that the elections might not run 
smoothly, and asked for Karume's assessment. 
 
5.  (C)  Karume predictably took the opportunity to blast 
the opposition Civic United Front (CUF), blaming them for 
attempting to disrupt the process of voter registration, 
and more generally for "stirring up unrest."  As on 
previous occasions, Karume charged that CUF had attempted 
to register underage voters, and had tried to intimidate 
CCM supporters from registering.  The President claimed 
that CUF hard-liners would attempt to disrupt polling as 
well, but said the security forces and the ZEC were well- 
prepared to maintain calm and run well-organized 
elections. 
 
6.  (C)  Charge said we remain concerned that there may 
have been a significant number of duplicate 
registrations, and noted that in some districts the 
number of registered voters is twice the expected number. 
Karume countered that some districts had experienced 
substantial population growth since the last census, and 
noted that if anyone has a question about the 
registration, there are established appeal procedures 
that everyone should follow.  The appeal process is 
working well, he said, and people should follow the 
procedures, rather than making "wild allegations" such as 
those made by CUF. 
 
7.  (C)  Asked about the likely outcome of the elections, 
Karume acknowledged that the CUF has a "significant 
following," and that it would be a hard-fought race.  The 
President predicted that the CCM would ultimately prevail 
however, saying "our strength is growing and CUF's is 
declining."  Karume again lambasted CUF party chairman 
Seif Hamad, saying that he had already publicly stated 
that CUF would launch a "mass demonstration" if it is 
defeated in the polls.  Charge noted that Hamad had said 
the demonstrations would be non-violent, and would only 
take place if CUF felt it had been cheated (ref).  Karume 
charged that CUF had a violent record, and would in any 
event inevitably claim it was cheated if it is defeated. 
 
8.  (C)  The President said he believed the prospects for 
violence during the campaign would be mitigated by the 
fact that Ramadan will last from approximately October 4 
through November 3.  Thus the four weeks prior to the 
October 30 elections should be calm, as Muslims in the 
isles will be focused on their religious obligations. 
Holding rallies or large public gatherings during Ramadan 
would be "against our traditions," Karume said. 
 
9.  (C)  Charge concluded the meeting by reiterating our 
strong interest in seeing free, fair, and non-violent 
elections in October, and said the USG would be watching 
the campaign and polling very closely.  We urged all 
parties to refrain from violence, intimidation, or 
trickery, and allow the people of Zanzibar to choose 
their leadership fairly.  A questionable electoral 
process or post-election violence would raise serious 
concern in Washington, and would deal a heavy blow to the 
all-important tourism sector.  Karume said he understood 
and appreciated our interest in the Zanzibar electoral 
process, and said he remained optimistic that all would 
go well and that he would be re-elected President in 
October.  "You will be satisfied with the process and the 
outcome," he said. 
10.  (C)  Comment:  Karume appeared supremely confident 
of a CCM victory in October, even though he did 
acknowledge that CUF would be a formidable opponent.  All 
indications are that it will be an extremely close race, 
and Karume (as well as the CUF leadership) will almost 
certainly have a difficult time controlling some of the 
party hard-liners as polling day nears.  It will be 
vitally important for us to continue reminding Karume and 
the CCM and CUF leadership of our strong interest in free 
and fair elections, and to monitor the process closely to 
detect fraud or intimidation.  End Comment. 
 
OWEN