US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN1142

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001142 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL, PLEASE PASS USAID 
NSC FOR DAVID MERKEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, AM 
SUBJECT: GOAM ENDORSEMENT OF COE RECOMMENDATIONS MAY TEMPT 
OPPOSITION BACK TO PARLIAMENT 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) Armenia's delegation to the Council of Europe (CoE) 
announced June 24 that it would accept almost all CoE Venice 
Commission recommendations as part of the country's 
constitutional reform process.  High-level endorsement of the 
move is the most encouraging sign to date that the GOAM is 
taking the process seriously and understands the need for 
decentralization of power and a more independent judiciary. 
Despite resistance on the part of some GOAM officials, Post 
has learned that National Assembly Speaker Arthur 
Baghdasaryan and National Assembly Deputy Speaker Vahan 
Hovanissian have pushed hard -- and even threatened to take 
action -- if the CoE recommendations were not part of the 
GOAM package.  The move appears to be increasing pressure on 
the opposition to end its boycott of parliament and engage in 
discussion of the amendments before the GOAM submits its 
revised text to the Venice Commission on July 7.  End Summary. 
 
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GOAM DELEGATION COMMITS TO VENICE COMMISSION POINTS 
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2. (C) Armenia's delegation to the Council of Europe 
announced June 24 that it would accept almost all CoE Venice 
Commission recommendations as part of the country's 
constitutional reform process.  In a widely-circulated CoE 
working group document, the GOAM delegation committed to 
adopt Venice Commission amendment language affecting the 
Ombudsman, presidential immunity, dismissal of the Prime 
Minister, dissolution of the National Assembly, appointment 
of judges and the office of Yerevan's mayor.  The changes 
will limit the broad powers of the executive branch and 
reflect the majority of recommendations that international 
organizations and bilateral missions -- including the USG -- 
have been raising with the GOAM. 
 
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COALITION AND OPPOSITION PART OF THE PUSH 
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3. (C) Despite early signs of resistance on the part of some 
GOAM officials, Post has learned that governing coalition 
leaders have pushed hard -- and even threatened to take 
action -- if the CoE recommendations were not part of the 
GOAM package.  NDI Country Director Chad Rogers told the 
Ambassador July 28 that National Assembly Speaker Arthur 
Baghdasaryan had threatened to pull his Orinats-Yerkir 
(Country of Law) Party from the coalition if the GOAM did not 
adopt the full slate of CoE endorsements.  Armenian 
Revolutionary Federation (ARF-Dashnaksutyun) Bureau 
representative Giro Manoyan told us June 27 that Deputy 
Speaker Vahan Hovanissian had made strong threats (stopping 
just short of Baghdasaryan's) during meetings over the 
weekend with his counterpart, Deputy Speaker (and Republican 
Party leader) Tigran Torossian.  The clear support of Justice 
Minister David Harutiunian, who was part of the Strasbourg 
working group meeting, is an additional sign that the highest 
political forces had blessed the set of constitutional 
amendments. 
 
4. (C) The move appears to be increasing pressure on the 
opposition to end its boycott of parliament and engage in 
discussion of the amendments before the GOAM submits its 
revised text to the Venice Commission on July 7.  In a rare 
deviation from their talking points about Kocharian's 
"illegitimacy," opposition leaders have also entered the 
discussion of the amendments package.  Justice Bloc MP (and 
GOAM CoE delegate) Shavarsh Kocharyan (no relation to 
President Robert Kocharian) called on opposition leaders June 
28 to end their boycott of parliament and join discussion of 
the amendments package.  Opposition leaders made similar 
noises following their meeting with CoE Ago Group 
representatives, led by Ambassador Wegener, in Yerevan on 
June 28.  Local newspapers and pundits are speculating that 
Kocharyan's plea for dialogue may be the first sign that the 
opposition will abandon its calls for "revolution" and move 
back into political structures (especially parliament). 
 
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COMMENT:  PRE-JULY 7 DISCUSSION THE REAL PROOF 
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5. (C) The GOAM now has until July 7 to integrate the CoE 
recommendations into the package of amendments currently 
under consideration in the National Assembly.  The next few 
weeks will prove how far the GOAM is willing to go -- beyond 
the rhetoric of the past week -- in curbing the powers of the 
executive branch.  One of the key indicators will be whether 
or not the National Assembly actually edits the amendments to 
make the Mayor of Yerevan an elected position, although this 
could be accomplished by other legislation.  Experts in 
Yerevan (including USAID observers) consider this point to be 
a true indicator of the government's commitment to balance of 
power in Armenia.  Post has been frustrated by the 
unwillingness of GOAM officials (including Deputy Speaker 
Torossian) to engage the public in a discussion of the 
amendments to date.  Our assistance programs (including 
Democracy Commission grants) will help take this dialogue to 
the public in an effort to inform the public about the 
specific CoE recommendations and the need for a more 
equitable distribution of powers. 
 
6. (C) Comment continued:  The period before July 7 will also 
speak volumes about the state of Armenia's opposition.  It 
has been difficult to gauge the full extent of the fissures 
caused by petty bantering in the press over the past 12 
months.  How they mobilize, and who emerges as the leader on 
substance, will be a good indicator of how much life is left 
in the increasingly margninalized opposition.  Now that 
opposition and GOAM figures have portrayed discussion of the 
constitutional amendments as an "historic moment" for 
democracy in Armenia, the opposition has an opportunity to 
end its boycott of parliament without appearing to endorse 
Kocharian and his administration.  We will continue to press 
all sides to "do the right thing." 
EVANS