US embassy cable - 05BRUSSELS2481

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002481 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EPET, VE, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EU DEBATING VENEZUELA POLICY 
 
REF: A. A) STATE 117165 
     B. B) ROME 2184 
 
Classified By: USEU POLOFF TODD HUIZINGA, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: On June 27, we delivered ref (A) demarche to 
Nicolas Pascual de la Parte (STRICTLY PROTECT), EU HighRep 
Javier Solana,s Adviser on Latin America.  Pascual said that 
EU member states were now debating whether and how to engage 
or isolate Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.  He predicted 
the EU would have a unified Venezuela policy by 
September-October; we believe the U.S. has a window of 
opportunity now to influence the EU's approach.  Asked what 
the major EU concern is regarding Venezuela, Pascual 
exclaimed, "Oil."  Regarding a possible Chavez tour of 
Europe, Pascual said Chavez had contacted a reluctant 
Romanian government several times about his interest in 
visiting the country.   END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------ 
EU VENEZUELA POLICY BY AUTUMN? 
------------------------------ 
 
2. (C) Pasqual (STRICTLY PROTECT) said that the EU was at a 
loss as to how to respond to the Chavez phenomenon.  EU 
member states were debating, in the EU Working Group on Latin 
America (COLAT), on approaches to Chavez, such as whether to 
try to engage him more or to isolate him, but there was no 
consensus on the way forward.  Many in the COLAT wanted to 
involve regional players, such as Brazil, but were unsure 
exactly how to proceed. 
 
3. (C) Within this context, Pasqual said, the European 
Commission was drafting a paper on Venezuela policy for the 
COLAT.  Characterizing the paper as a "business as usual" 
Commission product concentrating on aid and development 
programs in Venezuela, Pascual said he intended to add a 
strategic dimension which would suggest ways to respond to 
the many challenges Chavez poses.  On the basis of this 
paper, Pascual predicted the COLAT would reach consensus on 
Venezuela by September-October, with a fully approved common 
EU policy toward Venezuela soon to follow. 
 
---------------------------------- 
SPAIN WILL REMAIN IN DRIVER'S SEAT 
---------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Pascual said Spain, which carries the most weight in 
the EU on Latin America policy (including Venezuela), was 
uneasy about a possible common EU policy.  At the moment, 
said Pascual, Spain preferred the flexibility it had in the 
absence of a binding EU approach.  Pascual predicted that 
Spain would ultimately not obstruct the development of an 
EU-wide policy, but that that policy would be driven by Spain 
more than by any other member state.  Thus, the EU policy 
would probably reflect Spain's preference for an approach of 
increased engagement and "constructive dialogue." 
 
-------------------- 
EU MAIN CONCERN: OIL 
-------------------- 
 
5. (C) Pascual said unequivocally that the EU's main concern 
regarding Venezuela was oil.  He downplayed U.S. concerns 
over regional destabilization and the Venezuelan military 
build-up, saying, &Chavez is not as important as he thinks 
he is.8  He agreed that terrorism and narco-trafficking were 
concerns, but not as central as oil. 
 
---------------------- 
CHAVEZ CALLING ROMANIA 
---------------------- 
 
6. (C) Regarding a possible Chavez tour of European capitals, 
Pascual said that Chavez is "trying desperately to be 
received by Romania.8  He said that Chavez, despite at least 
one earlier unsuccessful attempt to solicit an invitation 
from Romania, had contacted the Government of Romania again 
two weeks ago saying he would like to visit; the GOR had not 
yet reached a decision.  Pascual said Chavez' reasons for 
wanting to visit Romania were not known, but that he 
(Pascual) believed that Chavez wanted to try to harness some 
of Romania,s oil industry expertise.  Pascual was unaware of 
any Chavez plans to visit any of the EU member states (see 
ref B on possible Chavez visit to Rome). 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
COMMENT: TIME RIPE TO ENGAGE EU ON VENEZUELA 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) In a context of general perplexity as to how to 
approach the Chavez problem, the EU's internal debate on 
Venezuela is gathering steam.  The U.S. has an opportunity 
now to shape that debate.  Engaging Spain will be especially 
important: given Spain's influence within the EU on Latin 
America, the EU will likely ultimately come down in favor of 
increasing engagement with Chavez.  END COMMENT. 
 
MCKINLEY 
 
 
 
 
 
.