US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV4059

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 004059 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/24/2015 
TAGS: PREL, KWBG, PTER, EAID, IS, GOI INTERNAL, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: AMOS GILAD ON PA POLITICS, DISENGAGEMENT PLANNING 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Ministry of Defense Political-Military 
bureau head Maj. Gen. Amos Gilad told EconCouns that the high 
level of USG and international community actors involved in 
disengagement planning -- including Quartet Special Envoy 
(QSE) Wolfensohn, Security Coordinator Gen. Ward, and A/S 
Welch -- has enabled the GOI to work for the first time on 
security and economy together.  He criticized PA President 
Abbas for taking little action against terror and for 
adopting a policy of political containment and adaptation 
towards Hamas.  While the PA is foundering and Hamas is 
poised to take additional power in the upcoming PLC 
elections, he said, the PA can be reinvigorated if the "old 
guard" retires and new young Fatah leaders come to the fore. 
In his view, the GOI and the PA must use the current quiet 
interlude in their "collision course" to secure a better 
economic future for Gaza, including international investment 
in agribusiness and the crossings.  End summary. 
 
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USG and International Involvement Creates Unique Opportunity 
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2.  (C) Maj. Gen. Amos Gilad, head of the Ministry of 
Defense,s (MoD) Political-Military bureau, told EconCouns 
and USAID Country Director June 24 that the high-level 
involvement of USG and international officials in 
disengagement planning has enabled the GOI to more 
comprehensively address civil and security issues.  &This is 
the first time we can really work based on the principle that 
there is no security without economy, and no economy without 
security,8 he said.  Quartet Special Envoy Wolfensohn has 
the unique ability to shape a brighter economic future for 
Gaza, he explained, while Security Coordinator General Ward, 
NSC director Abrams, and A/S Welch represent &the top levels 
of the U.S. government8 on security and strategic policy. 
Gilad expressed his doubt that such an opportunity would 
arise again. 
 
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Abbas and PA Foundering But Not Hopeless 
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3.  (C) In Gilad,s view, PA President Mahmoud Abbas is 
sincere in his desire to combat terrorism, but is not using 
his considerable influence in order to dismantle terrorist 
infrastructure because he believes that the current "period 
of calm" is sufficient.  On Hamas, Gilad said Abbas prefers 
containment and adaptation over direct confrontation, a 
policy that will prove problematic in the long run since 
Hamas remains committed to armed struggle against Israel and 
is using its civil institutions to support its terrorist 
activity.  Gilad complained that while "everyone, including 
the international community" knew that wanted terrorist Hasan 
Madhum was behind the recent attempted suicide bombing at a 
Beer Sheva hospital by Jabaliya resident Wafa al-Biss, Abbas 
and the PA have done nothing to catch him.  Despite Abbas's 
75 percent approval rating amongst Palestinians, Gilad 
predicted that he will be forced by circumstance to resign 
unless he takes concrete actions now to strengthen himself. 
Without Abbas,s directive, he said, the security services 
cannot act against terrorism.  "The U.S. gives Abbas a kind 
of 'Chapter 11' immunity from criticism," Gilad asserted, 
"but Israel needs a real partner, not a symbol." 
 
4.  (C)  Gilad described the PA as weak, charging that "the 
PA doesn,t need a Prime Minister, and Abu Ala,a is 
ineffective and dangerous," that Finance Minister Salaam 
Fayyad is intelligent and honest but stands alone, and that 
Civil Affairs Minister Dahlan is influenced by his corrupt 
trade interests, and must be pressured by the U.S. to take on 
more responsibility for Gaza's future.  Hamas's influence is 
increasing in Gaza not because the Palestinian people are 
extremist or religious, he explained, but because they hate 
Fatah's corruption.  According to Gilad, Hamas has the 
potential to win over one third of PLC seats in the upcoming 
elections.  In order for Fatah to have a chance, he said, 
Fayyad will have to "send all the old idiots" to pension, and 
the PA will have to allow a new cadre of young, energetic 
leaders to come to the fore. 
 
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Security and Economy in Post-Disengagement Gaza 
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5.  (C) Gilad was pessimistic about longer-term GOI-PA 
coordination and negotiations, arguing that the two sides are 
on a "collision course," and must use the current interim 
period of calm to resolve as many technical and security 
issues as possible to ensure disengagement's success.  In his 
view, the PA will require significant additional economic 
assistance following disengagement, particularly directed 
toward Gaza's agriculture sector.  He asserted that the 
settlement greenhouses are a potential "goldmine" for the 
Palestinians, and expressed frustration with what he termed 
the PA's lack of initiative in ensuring they are transferred 
intact.  Gilad also underscored the need for improvements at 
the Gazan border crossings, stating that Karni terminal used 
to process upwards of 800 trucks per day during the period 
when he served as Coordinator of Government Activities in the 
Territories, while it is "lucky to process 200 now."  (Note: 
Several GOI and Gazan private sector contacts have said that 
Karni is now processing approximately 600 trucks per day, but 
that imports from the West Bank are routinely delayed up to 
two weeks at the crossing.  End note.)  On utilities, Gilad 
argued that the PA is ready to take on responsibility for 
supplying water, gas, and electricity, but its continued 
insistence on politics rather than practicalities has 
prevented this.  On Rafah and the Philadelphi corridor, Gilad 
said that the IDF will only leave the area if the PA 
demonstrates it can cope with terrorism.  Contrary to press 
reports, he noted, the Israeli-Egyptian agreement currently 
in the approval process will not include the IDF's departure 
from Philadelphi. 
 
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Extra Bodies in Sa Nur No Problem 
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6.  (C) In response to a question, Gilad asserted that he is 
not worried about an influx of settler youth and other 
opponents of disengagement into the northern West Bank 
settlement of Sa Nur.  &Withdrawal will be carried out on 
schedule, regardless of whether it is hard or easy,8 he 
asserted, expressing confidence that the IDF,s field 
commanders will be capable of handling the situation. 
 
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