US embassy cable - 02HARARE1901

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001901 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/S, AF/EX 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR CNEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2012 
TAGS: EAID, ECON, PHUM, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: UNDP-DONOR MEETING:  MORE DOOM AND GLOOM 
 
 
Classified By: DCM REWhitehead due to 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (SBU) Summary.  UNDP Resrep (and newly-named UN 
Humanitarian Affairs Coordinator) to Zimbabwe Victor Angelo 
met with donors on August 20 in a refreshingly frank session. 
 He listed upcoming events, including a proposed regional 
scientific conference on GMO issues, and detailed where food 
imports and agricultural production stand.  None of the news 
was good.  Angelo announced a greater UN focus on monitoring 
and a new UN and, allegedly, GOZ focus on displaced farm 
workers.  Angelo stressed that he continues to press to no 
avail through his increasingly frayed lines of communications 
with the GOZ for rational responses on policy questions, and 
he asked for donor advice on what next steps he should 
consider.  There were comments from many donors about how 
recent GOZ counter-sanctions could affect bilateral 
humanitarian assistance programs.  We approached Angelo to 
discuss the details of the GMO conference, including 
potential pitfalls.  End summary. 
 
Where Things Stand, What Waits Ahead 
 
 
2. (SBU) Just returned from his holidays, Angelo said that he 
would re-engage Minister of Public Service, Labor and Social 
Welfare July Moyo in discussions on food assistance later in 
the week.  He described donor response to the humanitarian 
food appeal as positive ) 43 percent of the total is 
presently pledged ) but noted that the response to requests 
for various health inputs (including drugs, foot and mouth 
medicine, supplemental child feeding, and various non-food 
commodities) has been anemic.  He said that from June 1 to 
August 6 the GOZ had brought in 153,000 MT of maize and had 
taken delivery of an additional consignment of 200,000 MT in 
the port of East London.  He was skeptical about GOZ claims 
that it will import 1,000,000 MT of maize during the calendar 
year.  Angelo doubted that there will be sufficient forex  to 
achieve this goal, despite GOZ exploration of ways to raise 
additional forex, including taking advances on planned 
exports and seizing the tobacco remaining on Section 8 farms. 
 
 
3. (SBU) Angelo listed upcoming UN/UNDP events of interest. 
 
 -- SADC health ministers will meet here next week to examine 
the health dimensions of the regional crisis. 
 
-- UNSYG Special Envoy to the region for humanitarian 
affairs, WFP Director James Morris, will visit in early 
September and is tentatively scheduled to meet with Mugabe on 
September 5. 
 
-- UNDP will host a September 8-11 Scientific Conference on 
GMO issues that will bring together the GOZ Biosafety Board, 
WHO, FAO, the GOZ Research Council, and representatives of 
neighboring countries.  The GOZ is sponsoring the conference 
that will bring in "top scientists" for informed policy 
dialogue.  Angelo invited countries who wish to be involved 
to contact him.  (See comment.) 
 
4. (SBU) The next agenda item was the situation in the 
agriculture sector.  Angelo presented a bleak picture, as 
follows. 
 
-- The GOZ would need Zimbabwe dollar $70 billion 
(approximately US $100 million at the parallel rate, and US 
$1.27 million at the official exchange rate) to handle the 
needs of the newly resettled; they have been able to mobilize 
only $8.5 billion. 
 
-- There is sufficient maize seed in country, but price 
controls are such that the seed companies are reluctant to 
sell.  An increase in prices would put the seed out of reach 
of many small farmers. 
 
-- There will be at least a 200,000 MT shortfall of 
fertilizer, since there is no forex available to import the 
raw materials. 
 
-- The most optimistic estimate for tobacco next year 
foresees a minimum forty percent decline over the current 
season,s already reduced output.  Hectarage planted will 
fall from 60-65,000 hectares to 30,000. 
 
-- Only thirty percent of the recipients of A2 farms are 
resident on the land and beginning to make preparations to 
grow something next year.  The quality of their production 
poses another unanswered question. 
-- There is no reliable figure for smaller A1 resettled 
farmers who have taken plots of varying sizes on 3,160 
sub-divided farms. 
 
-- Winter wheat cultivation was initially estimated at 
100,000 MT produced on 20,000 hectares.  Recent farm 
evictions will reduce this by probably fifty percent.  Some 
farmers have arranged locally to harvest their wheat before 
they are forced to leave; the GOZ plans to take over the 
crops in other areas. 
 
Monitoring 
 
 
5. (SBU) During the agenda discussion of policy issues, the 
question of food distribution monitoring arose.  The British 
High Commissioner asked for a readout on the distribution 
mechanism of the Grain Marketing Board (GMB), as opposed to 
the WFP program.  A WFP representative said that the GMB sold 
the subsidized grain/meal for cash, some of which was a 
monthly Zimbabwe dollar $1,500 payment to families enrolled 
in the government's food-for-work program on public works 
projects.  (Angelo added that while the work had been done, 
in many areas payment was behind schedule.)  The WFP 
representative continued that WFP is targeting the most 
vulnerable population with free food in 19 districts, which 
WFP hopes to expand to 53 when sufficient resources are 
available.  The DFID representative inquired about global 
monitoring of all food distribution, noting that it was 
essential the GMB distribution system as well as that of 
donors be scrutinized in order to assist those who, for 
whatever reason, do not benefit from the GMB sales. 
 
6. (SBU) Angelo responded that UNDP fully agrees.  He said 
that he had repeatedly told senior GOZ  officials that the UN 
would be watching, and that partisan distribution of food was 
unacceptable.  He said that the GOZ reaction was that since 
it was their money supplying the GMB operation, they would 
distribute the food as they saw appropriate.  For this 
reason, it would be necessary to monitor as closely as 
possible food distribution on all levels.  Angelo did not 
refer to the details of the monitoring mechanism. 
 
Commercial Farm Workers/Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) 
 
 
7. (SBU) Angelo expressed some optimism about the UN's 
ability to address the plight of commercial farm workers. 
After months of avoiding the issue, or rejecting it as 
irrelevant, his GOZ contacts now seemed ready to discuss ways 
forward, and the topic had come under discussion in the 
GOZ-owned press.  Angelo said that the UN hopes to identify 
as soon as possible qualified NGOs to undertake program 
implementation with farm workers.  Angelo said that most farm 
workers remained in place on their farms, although there was 
a modest but growing migration toward communal and urban 
areas.  As the Section 8 evictions go forward, the potential 
for clashes between commercial farm workers and the new 
settlers who have been allocated farm worker housing will 
increase.  Angelo said that he had heard over the weekend 
that the USG has offered to fund a senior OCHA official who 
would work in Angelo's office, preferably by September 1, 
with primary responsibility for farm worker/IDP issues. 
(Request confirmation from the Department/USAID that this 
information is accurate.) 
 
The Implications of  Counter Sanctions on Travelers for Donor 
Implementation 
 
 
8. (SBU) The DFID representative observed that recent 
developments at the Harare International Airport could 
potentially pose problems for DFID activities, including 
humanitarian programs, in Zimbabwe.  Fifteen non-UK national 
DFID employees from countries as far away as Asia, and two UK 
consultants, had been turned back by immigration authorities 
without explanation on August 19.  They had come to undertake 
a training session.  Most participants were from African 
countries, and several held valid visas.  Angelo responded 
that he had heard about such problems in passing and asked 
what other nationalities had been affected.  Responses follow. 
 
-- Sweden:  Two students with visas were turned back on 
August 19. 
 
-- UK:  Four additional persons had been turned back, 
including a military officer who had come to wed his fiance, 
a tourist, and a policeman who was told "wrong job" by the 
immigration officer in charge. 
 
-- Germany:  Two persons, including a tourist holding a visa 
and the sister of a permanent resident in Zimbabwe. 
 
-- The Netherlands:  A consultant with a local NGO who had 
come to undertake an evaluation. 
 
-- Australia:  A recruiter for an Australian university who 
had arrived from Nairobi to interview potential scholarship 
candidates. 
 
-- USA:  Four Americans on August 15, including a woman 
holding a valid visa who was interviewing to head an HIV/AIDs 
project, a dance student with a valid visa, and a researcher 
for an NIH-funded HIV/AIDS project who was bringing in 
HIV/AIDs test kits.  (We have since heard that a fifth Amcit 
(working for OXFAM) was turned back on August 19 and we are 
seeking to confirm.) 
 
-- Canada:  Immigration officials attempted to turn back a 
newly-arrived member of the Canadian High Commission with a 
valid diplomatic visa, who eventually managed to talk his way 
through. 
 
9. (SBU) The Belgian Ambassador said that several EU nations, 
including Belgium, have already issued travel advisories 
warning business visitors as well as tourists that possession 
of a valid visa does not guarantee entry into Zimbabwe, and 
recommending against travel here.  The UK High Commissioner 
reiterated that a continued refusal to grant entry to 
official travelers could imperil British assistance programs 
in Zimbabwe, including humanitarian programs.  Angelo replied 
that he had urged the GOZ to approve registration of all 
legitimate international NGOs interested in humanitarian 
activities regardless of the location of their headquarters. 
He requested details about any additional problems and said 
that he would raise with Minister July Moyo this week the 
urgency of rectifying this issue, and clarifying any new 
procedures. 
 
Comment 
 
 
10. (C) Comment: This particular meeting was different from 
most donor conclaves in that it descended from the usual 
platform of diplomatic niceties.  Angelo, who admitted that 
he feels trapped "between the sword and the wall," was blunt 
and offered nothing in the way of apologies for the GOZ 
behavior or policies.  He said that his instructions from the 
UNSYG are to "keep open the channels of communication," even 
though little meaningful interchange appears to be moving 
through those channels.  His view of the likely evolution of 
events was as bleak as that of the rest of the participants. 
 
11. (C)  We approached Angelo after the meeting to request 
further information on the Scientific Conference on GMO, 
including who will be invited to present.  We reminded him of 
the public debate-turned-debacle on GMO in Zambia and 
cautioned that the event should be managed in such a way as 
to avoid any negative fallout here and, by extension, 
regionally.  Angelo offered to provide us full information on 
the event at a meeting later this week, which we will share 
with the Department.  Depending upon where this stands, we 
may wish to identify additional participants who can offer 
accurate, balanced and informed insights into the complex 
biotech issue.  End comment. 
SULLIVAN