US embassy cable - 05DARESSALAAM1252

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAR ES SALAAM 001252 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: 6/28/15 
TAGS: PGOV, TZ 
SUBJECT:  Elections Season and the Government Slowdown 
 
Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason 
1.4(b) 
 
REF: A) Dar es Salaam 1090,  B)Dar es Salaam 908, 
C) Dar es Salaam 888, D) Dar es Salaam 732 
 
1. (U) With Benjamin Mkapa's Presidency clearly in its lame 
duck phase, much of the Tanzanian Government has entered a 
state of suspended animation; everybody is waiting for 
Kikwete.  Four months still remain until the general 
elections, but hardly a shred of doubt remains that Jakaye 
Kikwete will be elected the next President of Tanzania. 
All the mystery and intrigue is now focused on the 
composition of Kikwete's government.  When the next 
administration is inaugurated, probably on or about 
November 8, Cabinet Ministers and other top government 
officials, as well as many appointed Regional and District 
Commissioners, will all be new. 
 
2. (C) The ruling CCM party will also nominate its 
candidates for all of the seats in the National Assembly 
and announce them on August 20, the opening of the official 
campaign season.  Although the CCM will likely retain its 
overwhelming parliamentary majority, at least one veteran 
political observer believes there will be many new faces in 
the National Assembly as well.  Dr. Rwekaza Mukandala, a 
professor of political science, believes that there could 
be up to fifty percent turnover, as the CCM maneuvers to 
run its best candidates in those constituencies where 
opposition parties have a significant presence.  While the 
CCM is unlikely to lose its huge parliamentary majority any 
time soon, the advent of multiparty democracy ensured that 
the ruling party can no longer afford to run lackluster 
candidates in marginal constituencies. 
 
3. (C) It should come as little surprise that officials 
throughout the Government are pouring far more effort into 
landing good positions in the next administration than 
working at their current jobs.  Embassy Dar es Salaam and 
other diplomatic missions are noticing that it is ever more 
difficult to get a telephone call through to a government 
ministry; more difficult still to actually get something 
done in coordination with the Tanzanian Government.  Jakaya 
Kikwete's Foreign Ministry is particularly hard hit.  The 
Minister is constantly on the road campaigning for his 
inevitable presidency; many officials in his ministry are 
presumably maneuvering to keep their jobs or to trade them 
in for better ones.  Several diplomats believe that the 
director of the Multilateral Affairs Department, Ambassador 
Liberata Mulamula, has been running the Ministry single- 
handedly.  A week ago, however, Ambassador Mulamula 
departed for New York where Tanzania has a UN Security 
Council seat.  Who is now in charge at the Foreign Affairs 
Ministry is an open question. 
 
4. (U) The current sense of drift in the Tanzanian 
government will likely get worse before it gets better. 
Members of Parliament and most top government officials are 
currently in the capital city Dodoma for the National 
Assembly's annual budget session.  (Presumably, many of 
them are lobbying for jobs as well.) On August 20, the 
election campaign officially opens.  At that time, 
Parliament will be dissolved.  All Ministers and their 
deputies will also step down, leaving the Permanent 
Secretaries in each Ministry to run the government as best 
 
SIPDIS 
they can until after inauguration day in November. 
 
5. (C) Comment:  These are interesting times in Tanzania, 
but far from normal.  We don't expect to return to business 
as usual until sometime in November, when the new 
Administration's team is in place and up to speed.  End 
comment. 
 
OWEN