US embassy cable - 05SOFIA1144

C O N F I D E N T I A L  SOFIA 001144 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, BU 
SUBJECT: SOCIALIST LEADER FAVORS LARGE COALITION; SAYS 
SIMEON OUT AS PM; PLEDGES NO IMMEDIATE PULL-OUT FROM IRAQ 
 
REF: A) SOFIA 1134 B) SOFIA 808 
 
Classified By: AMB. JAMES PARDEW FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: In a one-on-one meeting with Ambassador on 
June 27, a confident Sergei Stanishev, Bulgarian Socialist 
Party  (BSP) leader, laid out his party's views on a future 
government in anticipation of negotiations to form a 
coalition.  At this point, Stanishev favors a large 
coalition, including the ethnic-Turkish Movement for Rights 
and Freedom (MRF) and the current Prime Minister's National 
Movement for Simeon II (NMSS.)  Stanishev was adamant that 
Simeon cannot remain as PM.  He reiterated his pledge to move 
slowly on his campaign promise to withdraw from Iraq. 
However, retaining Bulgarian forces as part of the coalition 
after December is "out of the question." 
 
ELECTION 
-------- 
 
2. (C) Stanishev said the Socialists did not do as well as 
expected, but he put a positive spin on the results, pointing 
out they gained more votes than ever before -- including from 
young voters.  He said the surprise of the election was 
extreme nationalist group Ataka's strong showing (ref A) 
which took a considerable number of voters away from the BSP. 
 Stanishev predicted hard negotiations ahead to form a 
coalition. 
 
COALITION 
--------- 
 
3. (C) Stanishev repeatedly stressed the need for a stable 
and predictable government.  As the BSP enters coalition 
negotiations with other parties, Stanishev emphasized that a 
coalition agreement must be reached quickly because of the EU 
accession timetable, a tool he can use as leverage in forming 
the coalition.  His strategy going into negotiations is to 
form a large coalition with the two next largest 
vote-getters, which will provide a stable structure to allow 
Bulgaria to finalize preparations for entering the EU -- 
including amending the Constitution.  He says this 
three-party group would also provide a united front against 
Ataka.  Stanishev was adamant that a coalition which retains 
Simeon as the Prime Minister is "not possible."  Allowing 
Simeon to stay would lead to rebellion in Stanishev's own 
party, he said. 
 
IRAQ 
---- 
 
4. (C) Stanishev reiterated to Ambassador his earlier 
comments that withdrawal of Bulgarian troops from Iraq is not 
a high priority at this point and will take some time to 
address.  Stanishev said he understood the sensitivity of 
Iraq to the U.S. and did not stress the issue during the 
campaign, even though it could have won him more votes. 
Stanishev said he could not give a 100 percent guarantee that 
Bulgaria would not withdraw before December, but there were 
other priorities ahead of this on his national agenda. 
However, after December, staying in Iraq is "out of the 
question," Stanishev stated. 
 
U.S. MILITARY PRESENCE 
---------------------- 
 
4. (C) A BSP-led Bulgaria is ready to begin negotiation of an 
agreement with the U.S on the use of military facilities in 
Bulgaria, Stanishev said.  The Socialists have no ideological 
problems with a U.S. presence in Bulgaria.  Stanishev 
mentioned that the current Simeon government did not do a 
good job of informing the Bulgarian people about the benefits 
of the U.S. proposals.  However, in a clear indication that 
basing negotiations will be difficult, Stanishev brought up 
the appeal of Ataka to nationalist sentiment, noting that his 
government will have to prove it will protect Bulgaria's 
national interests in negotiations with the U.S. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
5. (C) Stanishev -- apparently feeling confident at this 
point that he can put together a coalition that makes him PM 
-- sought to reassure the U.S. that the Socialists see us as 
a strategic partner and will make no radical or immediate 
shifts in Bulgarian policy.  In making these assurances, 
however, he reiterated his intention to remove Bulgarian 
troops from Iraq before the end of the year -- but not 
precipitously.  As Socialist Party leader, Stanishev made it 
clear that he will not negotiate an agreement allowing Simeon 
to stay on as PM.  Stanishev's position on U.S. military 
facilities in Bulgaria suggested that a BSP-led government 
will be more difficult in upcoming negotiations, as expected 
(Ref B).  All of this should be viewed in the preliminary 
 
 
context of a winning party that has yet to begin discussions 
with other parties to form a government.