US embassy cable - 05ANKARA3637

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ANKARA 003637 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE 
TREASURY FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS - CPLANTIER AND MMILLS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, EFIN, TU, EU Accession 
SUBJECT: TURKEY'S EU EFFORT PLAGUED BY LOW MORALE, 
BUREAUCRATIC SKEPTICISM 
 
REF: A. ANKARA 3105 
     B. ANKARA 3565 
     C. ANKARA 1231 
 
Classified by CDA Nancy McEldowney; reasons 1.4 b and d. 
 
1. (C) Summary: Top GOT leaders insist publicly that the 
rejection of the EU Constitution in France and the 
Netherlands will not affect Turkey's EU candidacy, though our 
MFA contacts concede that recent events in Europe have sapped 
morale.  The GOT's recently-appointed lead EU negotiator must 
organize his negotiating team, and he may become overwhelmed 
by the burden of leading the EU talks while maintaining his 
position as Economy Minister.  We agree with contacts who 
tell us that the GOT has failed to lead the EU accession 
effort over the past several months.  Our contacts say that a 
majority of bureaucrats opposes EU membership.  End Summary. 
 
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GOT Battling Low Morale on EU Front 
----------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) PM Erdogan, FM Gul, and other high-level GOT officials 
have repeatedly insisted in public that the rejection of the 
EU Constitution by French and Dutch voters was only 
marginally influenced by fears over Turkey's possible EU 
membership, and that the referenda results will not affect 
Turkey's accession process (reftel A).  They have sought to 
assure the public that both Turkey and the EU are prepared to 
begin accession talks on schedule in October. 
 
3. (C) Our contacts at the MFA and the Secretariat General 
for EU Affairs also assure us that the GOT is pressing ahead 
on the EU front.  But they acknowledge that Turkish morale 
has been sapped by the "No" votes on the EU Constitution, as 
well as the strong possibility that Angela Merkel, Turkey 
skeptic and president of Germany's Christian Democratic Union 
Party, will emerge victorious in the upcoming German 
elections.  "There have been some ill effects, I won't deny 
that," said Ahmet Acet, Deputy Secretary General of the 
Secretariat General for EU Affairs.  "There is a strong sense 
 
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of disappointment." 
 
4. (C) Acet is concerned about the constant "murmuring" 
coming from Europe, and reflected in the Turkish press, about 
the possibility of postponing the opening of Turkey's 
accession talks.  He noted that these comments are generally 
coming from media pundits and European government officials 
not directly involved with EU enlargement; European 
Commission President Barroso and Enlargement Commissioner 
Rehn have made it clear that talks will begin on schedule. 
He expects the talks to start on time, but believes the 
constant barrage of negative comments will cast a dark cloud 
over the proceedings. 
 
5. (C) Acet noted that even Barroso has contributed to 
Turkish anxieties.  The Commission President told a reporter 
during a June 17 press conference that the EU "should 
seriously discuss the signals that we have had from the 
electorate regarding Turkey," a vague comment that Acet said 
many in the GOT view as an ominous sign of trouble on the 
horizon.  As reported reftel B, Acet and his colleagues fear 
that trouble could come in the form of tough language in the 
EU's upcoming Framework for Negotiations with Turkey. 
 
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Negotiator Needs to Organize Team 
--------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Our European contacts also believe that the EU, 
despite the recent turmoil, will stick to the October 3 start 
date for talks.  But how prepared is the GOT?  Kaya Turkmen, 
MFA DDG for EU Affairs, told us that Economy Minister 
Babacan, whom Erdogan named as lead EU negotiator in May, 
must decide how to organize his negotiating team.  The State 
Planning Organization (SPO), one of several economic policy 
agencies, has clashed with the Secretariat General for EU 
ffairs over which agency should play the leading role in the 
EU accession process. 
 
 
7. (C) Turkmen and Acet say Babacan is likely to favor the 
Secretariat General, which is under his authority, over the 
 
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SPO, which reports to Deputy PM Sener.  Moreover, both argue 
that SPO officials lack diplomatic skills and knowledge of 
the EU.  However, they say SPO expertise will be necessary 
for the accession process, and Babacan will have to 
incorporate the agency into the process.  MFA and the 
Secretariat General have jointly submitted to Babacan a 
 
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proposed arrangement under which Babacan would be supported 
by four deputies -- the head of the Secretariat General for 
EU Affairs, the MFA Deputy Undersecretary in charge of EU 
affairs, the GOT's EU Permrep, and the SPO Undersecretary. 
 
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Babacan May Be Overwhelmed by Dual Role 
--------------------------------------- 
 
8. (C) Erdogan has said Babacan will retain his position as 
Economy Minister while leading the EU negotiations.  It is 
not clear that he can handle both tasks.  A UK diplomat told 
us members of the Turkey-EU Parliamentary Commission were 
irritated when Babacan failed to attend a June 13 Commission 
meeting in Istanbul, reputedly because he was occupied with 
IMF matters.  Acet told us he discussed this issue with 
Babacan, who insisted that his IMF-related duties will soon 
decrease (Note: The track record suggests otherwise: at every 
IMF review, new and difficult issues emerge, often when 
politicos try to push through populist measures that the IMF 
cannot accept. End Note). 
 
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Reforms Proceed On Paper, ImplementationLags 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) Despite the uncertainty at the top, Acet and Turkmen 
insist that the Turkish bureaucracy has been steadily 
preparing for the start of accession talks, working behind 
the scenes in ways not reflected in the press.  Acet cited 
new draft laws on foundations and the establishment of a 
government ombudsman as examples of continuing reform efforts 
(Note: The EU has deemed the foundations law draft 
inadequate.  End Note). 
 
10. (C) Acet conceded that the GOT has had difficulty 
implementing legal reforms, and "adjusting mindsets" among 
law enforcement and judicial officials.  Despite a broad, 
EU-funded Justice Ministry program to train judges and 
prosecutors in EU law and GOT reform, judicial authorities 
often act against the spirit of the reforms.  Prosecutors are 
still opening "harassment cases" against people for 
controversial speech that should be protected, he said.  But 
Acet averred that such incidents are declining, and will 
decline further over time.  He said the GOT needs to find 
more effective ways to ensure that reforms on paper lead to 
real change on the street. 
 
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Most Bureaucrats Oppose EU Membership 
------------------------------------- 
 
11. (C) Other contacts are more skeptical about the sincerity 
of the GOT's EU-related reform effort.  Ayse Saadet Arikan, 
director general of the Justice Ministry's General 
Directorate for EU Affairs, told us that top GOT officials, 
despite their public commitment to EU accession, have shown 
no leadership on EU reforms in many months.  In the past, the 
GOT used to hold interministerial meetings immediately after 
each EU Summit and Regular Report to coordinate efforts to 
address issues raised by the EU.  However, she said, the GOT 
has not held any such meeting since the October 2004 Regular 
Report and December 2004 Summit.  As a result, each ministry 
is left on its own to decide how to proceed. 
 
12. (C) Moreover, Arikan has told us that a majority of the 
officials at Justice oppose EU membership, and many say so 
openly.  Contacts at the European Commission office in Ankara 
tell us they have noticed the same anti-EU sentiment at 
Justice and other ministries.  The Danish DCM told us that 
 
 
Ambassador Sungar, head of the Secretariat General for EU 
Affairs, told a visiting Dutch delegation that only 
approximately 30 percent of MFA officials favor EU 
membership.  Arikan said Justice Ministry bureaucrats 
systematically block her efforts to amend regulations to 
conform to EU requirements. 
 
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Comment 
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13. (C) Events both in Turkey and in the EU over the past six 
months have dramatically eroded the sense of optimism that 
had inspired many to hope that EU accession would, over time, 
serve as a catalyst to solve Turkey's various, 
long-unresolved conflicts.  The recent anti-EU backlash and 
increasingly nationalistic tone of the GOT has revealed that 
Turkey's reform accomplishments, while wide, have been 
shallow, remaining for the most part on paper.  The GOT's 
goal, for the moment, is a modest one: to make it to October 
3 without a major crisis that could derail negotiations.  At 
that point, any further progress will depend largely on the 
GOT's ability to inspire the bureaucracy, and the public, to 
embrace EU reform as a benefit to Turkey. 
 
MCELDOWNEY