US embassy cable - 02ABUJA2435

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 002435 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/19/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA:  HOUSE IMPEACHMENT MOVE SIGN OF 
OBASANJO'S GROWING WEAKNESS 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER;  REASONS 1.5 (B & 
D). 
 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  The House of Representatives on August 
13 passed a resolution demanding President Olusegun 
Obasanjo resign within two weeks or face an impeachment 
motion from the House.  The resolution cited a list of 
deficiencies identified by the Representatives, including 
the members of Obasanjo's own party, the People's 
Democratic Party (PDP).  PDP officials, responding to the 
ultimatum, accused the PDP House members of "anti-party" 
activities for not consulting party headquarters before 
supporting the motion.  Obasanjo has faced many challenges 
from Nigerian legislators during his tenure, but this time 
the threat comes as a result of his lack of popularity and 
the impression that his quest for a second term is 
weakening.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
2.  (U)  The House of Representatives held a plenary 
session on August 13 to discuss the state of Nigeria and 
passed a resolution tabled by Mohammed Mumalia, a member of 
the opposition APP.  According to press reports, the 
resolution was co-sponsored by 86 other members of the 
House and "passed unanimously."  The resolution accused the 
President of "monumental inadequacies, ineptitude, 
persistent disrespect for rule of law and obvious 
corruption." 
 
 
3.  (U)  Among the other complaints against Obasanjo are: 
 
 
--  lack of cooperation on the 2000 budget; 
 
 
--  taking decisions without consulting the Legislature; 
and 
 
 
--  frequent trips abroad. 
 
 
4.  (U) Following the announcement, the PDP, issued a 
statement calling the House resolution "irresponsible and 
ill-timed."  Complaining about the lack of party 
discipline, PDP National Publicity Secretary Venatius Ikem 
asked rhetorically: "If the House members knew all these 
things, why did they keep mum all this time."  He also 
demonstrated his displeasure with the PDP parliamentarians, 
commenting that PDP members should have consulted the party 
headquarters before taking on such an important issue.  Not 
doing so, he continued, "smacked of anti-party activity." 
 
 
5.  (C) COMMENT:  This is the latest volley in a series of 
skirmishes between the House of Representatives and the 
President.  Like the previous threats from the House, this 
current move will likely fizzle.  Under the Nigerian 
Constitution, impeachment is a convoluted process involving 
two separate two-thirds majority votes in both houses and 
the appointment of a blue-ribbon investigatory panel by the 
Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.  It is unlikely that 
Obasanjo's opponents can reach and sustain super-majorities 
in both Houses on two separate occasions.  The Executive or 
the PDP will be able to cajole, intimidate, bribe or 
otherwise discourage many members from pursuing this 
course of action. 
 
 
6.  (C)  However, the motion is politically damaging.  It 
shows that Obasanjo's critics will not let him waltz to the 
party nomination and that they plan to fight him tooth-and- 
nail during the PDP party convention.  Many hope that this 
episode and other confrontational maneuvers will somehow 
persuade Obasanjo to throw in the towel and not seek the 
PDP nomination.  At this juncture, we doubt if Obasanjo 
will be deterred by these machinations. 
JETER