US embassy cable - 05BRUSSELS2455

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002455 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, SY, XF, LE, FR, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH AND FRENCH DIRECTOR 
JEAN-FRANCOIS THIBAULT DISCUSS LEBANON/SYRIA 
 
Classified By: USEU Poloff Van Reidhead for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (S) SUMMARY: During a June 21 meeting in Brussels, NEA 
Assistant Secretary David Welch and French MFA Middle 
East/North Africa Director Jean-Francois Thibault welcomed 
the excellent U.S.-France cooperation on Lebanon and agreed 
that close coordination would remain critical as the new 
government in Beirut takes shape.  Thibault said France was 
concerned that aggressive steps toward disarming Hizballah 
could have a destabilizing effect, and urged that we work 
with the new GOL to find a way to pursue our shared 
commitment to disarming the militias.  He was worried about a 
punitive UNSCR on arms transfers. In that regard, Welch 
pushed back, arguing that preventing more arms from reaching 
Hizballah would put a ceiling on the problem. Thibault said 
the U.S. and France should communicate that we want "fresh 
figures" in the new government, although he thought we might 
still have to tolerate Parliamentary Speaker Berri.  Both 
agreed that maintaining regional stability while promoting 
reform should be a primary goal.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) Thibault was accompanied by Deputy Director 
(DAS-equivalent) Antione Sivan and Iraq Deskoff Renaud 
Salins.  Assistant Secretary Welch was accompanied by USEU 
Poloff Van Reidhead (notetaker). 
 
3. (S) During a June 21 bilateral meeting on the margins of 
the International Conference on Iraq in Brussels, French MFA 
Middle East/North Africa Director (A/S equivalent) 
Jean-Francois Thibault welcomed strong U.S.-French 
cooperation on Lebanon.  Summarizing the June 13 Core Group 
Planning meeting in Paris, he said France was pleased to see 
the determination of Core Group members to keep the Lebanese 
government at the center of our engagement and reform 
efforts.  France also welcomed the decision to hold an 
international conference as soon as possible after the 
formation of the new government in Beirut.  As agreed on June 
13 in Paris, France thought it would be very important for 
Core Group members to work with the new government to 
identify reform and assistance priorities that the GOL could 
present at the international conference.  The Core Group's 
job would then be to bring international resources to bear to 
assist the GOL achieve these priorities.  We should strive to 
boost the new government's credibility and sense of sovereign 
ownership by keeping the emphasis squarely on the GOL and its 
needs, Thibault said. 
 
4. (S) Thibault and Assistant Secretary Welch agreed that, 
having come out on top after the final round of Lebanese 
voting, the Hariri Bloc had a difficult task ahead of it in 
forming a new government.  Hariri's mandate, while clear, was 
not strong enough to avoid the tricky task of having to 
navigate what Thibault called the "triangle of power": first, 
PM Mikati, who seems to be generally cooperative these days; 
second, President Lahoud, who "has been a sheep lately but 
who still has a wolf lurking under the skin;" and third, 
Parliamentary Speaker Berri, who France saw as the real 
spoiler.  Thibault urged that the U.S. and France communicate 
that we want "fresh figures" in the new government, and that 
we will not tolerate the "old and corrupt guard."  At the 
same time, we might be forced by political realities to 
tolerate Berri to a certain degree, while recognizing that he 
will "try to play dirty tricks." 
 
5. (S) France remains committed to disarming the militias, 
Thibault said, but also wants to be careful not to disrupt 
the "fragile situation" that exists after Syria's withdrawal. 
 We should focus on finding and supporting a "Lebanese 
solution," he said, one that includes integrating southerners 
more fully into the economic system.  But we should be 
careful because "pushing them too much could cause a 
dangerous situation."  Assistant Secretary Welch said the 
U.S. thought it was important to get the UNSC to issue some 
kind of punitive resolution about arms transfers to non-GOL 
groups, especially Hizballah.  Thibault responded that the 
region and Lebanon's neighbors would see an embargo as too 
provocative.  We should find out what the new GOL wants to 
do, because a punitive declaration on arms transfers would be 
very sensitive, could easily backfire, and would impact how 
the GOL pursues the recovery of its sovereignty.  Assistant 
Secretary Welch said we would not need to call it an arms 
 
SIPDIS 
embargo, since it would be clear what we were trying to 
accomplish.  We just need to find some way to disarm 
Hizballah and prevent them from acquiring new arms.  It would 
be very important to have UNSC action by late summer, he 
said, and the U.S. was confident the Arab states would accept 
it. Furthermore, France could not argue for patience and a 
political solution for Hizballah, against EU action to list 
Hizballah as a terrorist organization and against an arms 
cutoff. This could easily be seen as protecting Hizballah. 
 
6. (S) Thibault and Assistant Secretary Welch agreed that 
promoting regional stability should remain a shared goal as 
we continue our close engagement on reform in Lebanon.  While 
Paris was very disappointed in Bashar al-Asad and was not 
sympathetic toward his government, the French thought it 
critical that Syria remain stable and not disintegrate. 
Assistant Secretary Welch agreed that the disintegration of 
Syria, despite what we think of the regime, was in nobody's 
interests. 
 
7. (SBU) Thibault concluded by saying he hoped to travel to 
Washington over the summer and would like to meet again to 
discuss other issues, especially the recent deterioration of 
Morocco-Algeria relations.  He and Assistant Secretary Welch 
agreed that a Washington meeting could be arranged in late 
July. 
 
(U) A/S Welch has cleared this message. 
 
McKinley 
.