US embassy cable - 05HANOI1682

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 001682 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, VM, ARF, ASEAN 
SUBJECT:  ASEAN, ARF, and the EAS 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  Vietnam is actively preparing for the 
July ASEAN ministerial in Vientiane, where ASEAN will adopt 
a formal position on the East Asia Summit (EAS).  There is 
momentum in favor of the decision to invite India to 
participate in the EAS, but Australia's participation is 
still not assured.  ASEAN intends to keep control of the 
EAS.  On the subject of Burma, ASEAN leaders have received 
assurances from Senior General Than Shwe that Burma intends 
to pass on the 2006 ASEAN Chairmanship, and will announce 
that at the Vientiane ministerial.  Vietnam is looking at 
the USG's representation for this year's ASEAN Regional 
Forum/Post Ministerial Conference (ARF/PMC) as an indication 
of Southeast Asia's importance to the United States.  End 
Summary. 
 
EAST ASIA SUMMIT: PARTICIPATION AND OTHER ISSUES 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
2. (SBU) In a conversation with Poloff June 23, MFA ASEAN 
expert Nguyen Van Hung said Vietnam understands that one of 
the main tasks at the Vientiane ASEAN Ministers' Meeting 
(AMM) in July will be to confirm formally the consensus on 
the East Asia Summit (EAS) that came out of the April 
Foreign Ministers' Retreat in Cebu, Philippines. 
Specifically, Vietnam expects ASEAN to affirm that, with 
regard to the EAS: 
 
-- ASEAN will be "in the driver's seat;" 
-- ASEAN will chair the EAS, which will be held at the 
location of the ASEAN+3 summit in Kuala Lumpur immediately 
following the ASEAN+3 summit; and, 
-- The EAS will include the ASEAN+3 countries plus other 
countries who wish to participate and who meet the following 
conditions: 
 
     A.   Full ASEAN dialog partner 
     B.   Maintaining an effective cooperative relationship with 
        ASEAN 
     C.   Agreeing to accede to the Treaty of Amity and 
        Cooperation (TAC). 
 
The final decision on EAS participation will be made in 
Vientiane, Hung said.  At the same time, the ministers will 
decide on the agenda of the EAS and whether or not there 
will be a joint declaration, as well as the content of any 
proposed declaration.  After Vientiane, ASEAN will present 
its EAS conclusions to the +3 countries, Hung explained.  He 
also confirmed that India, New Zealand and Australia are 
candidates to participate in the EAS.  "India is in 
already," Hung said, "and Australia and New Zealand are 
stuck on the TAC point."  If Australia and New Zealand are 
willing to sign a document pledging to accede to the TAC, 
"that would be sufficient to participate." 
 
3. (SBU) The Australian Ambassador confirmed to Poloff that 
signing the TAC remains an obstacle, but he believes it is a 
minor one.  "The legal issues are resolved," he said.  "We 
are currently circulating documents that acknowledge 
Australia's legal concerns regarding the TAC."  He assessed 
the likelihood of Australia's meeting all of the 
requirements to announce an agreement to accede to the TAC 
as 80 percent and expressed his belief that this 
announcement would head off any late effort by Malaysia to 
make the conditions for participation more restrictive. 
 
4. (SBU) The Singaporean First Secretary was less 
optimistic.  She characterized the Australian effort as an 
attempt "to determine the minimum they have to do" and "to 
obtain a legal escape clause" from the TAC, and said that 
the exercise was not being received well in ASEAN capitals 
and could jeopardize Australia's bid to participate.  This 
effort had emboldened those who want to see more restrictive 
criteria for participation, she said.  "We support the 
Australian bid completely, but cannot convince other ASEANs 
to accept a watered-down commitment to the TAC." 
 
BURMA AND ASEAN 
--------------- 
 
5. (SBU) Hung obediently recited official Vietnamese talking 
points regarding Burma's upcoming chairmanship, saying that 
the decision whether or not to assume the 2006 chairmanship 
was "in Myanmar's hands" and that Vietnam and other ASEAN 
countries would "refrain from interfering in Myanmar's 
internal affairs."  Deviating a bit from his script, Hung 
said Vietnam knows that the Burmese will "do something" 
regarding the domestic political situation, which would then 
present ASEAN with the unwelcome challenge of diplomatically 
and accurately evaluating Burma's political progress.  When 
asked about Vietnam's reaction to former Malaysian PM 
Mahathir's criticism of Burma and statement that the junta 
should release Aung San Suu Kyi, Hung said "Mahathir is 
saying what the other ASEAN countries are thinking." 
 
6. (SBU) Our Singapore Embassy contact said the issue has 
already been decided:  Burma will definitely step down. 
"The only issue is the wording of the statement now, 
according to what the Thai leadership has told our Prime 
Minister," she said.  She stated that Burmese leader Than 
Shwe told Singaporean PM Lee Hsien Loong at the Asia-Africa 
Summit in April that Burma will step aside.  Cambodian PM 
Hun Sen also told PM Lee that Than Shwe had given him 
similar assurances.  Hung from the Vietnamese MFA had one 
more observation to make: "we don't think the Burmese 
government has enough money to host the ASEAN chairmanship 
right now." 
U.S. PARTICIPATION IN THE ARF 
----------------------------- 
7. (SBU) Hung asked if Secretary Rice would attend the 
ARF/PMC in Vientiane this July.  When told that the 
Secretary's schedule was not yet set, Hung said the GVN 
 
SIPDIS 
"understands that she has a busy schedule."  However, he 
said, the USG should be aware that ASEAN is "watching 
carefully" to see if the Secretary "attaches enough 
importance" to Southeast Asia to attend the ARF/PMC.  "It is 
her first opportunity to visit Southeast Asia," he noted. 
"Will she take it?" 
BOARDMAN