US embassy cable - 02AMMAN4719

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 004719 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2012 
TAGS: PREL, KPAL, IZ, IS, JO 
SUBJECT: A STEP FORWARD ON IRAQ, BUT ELECTIONS POSTPONED 
UNTIL SPRING 2003 
 
REF: A. FBIS GMP20020815000167 B. AMMAN 04526 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR EDWARD W. GNEHM FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) King Abdullah's televised speech on August 15 carried 
few surprises.  As expected, he announced the postponement of 
elections until "the spring."  The King also said that 
responsibility for the future of Palestine and Iraq lies with 
their respective leaderships.  Most Embassy contacts had few 
words of praise for the speech, and focused on the 
postponement of elections.  However, it is important to note 
that the King's remarks about the responsibility of the Iraqi 
leadership is a welcome change from his comments to the press 
in London three weeks ago.  End Summary. 
 
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NUANCE ON PALESTINE, IRAQ, NO SUPRISE ON ELECTIONS 
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2. (C) King Abdullah addressed the nation on August 15 in a 
speech (see Ref A) that was carried on Jordan television and 
the Lebanese satellite station MBC.  The King reaffirmed that 
Jordan considers the PA the only legitimate leadership of the 
Palestinian people and that the Palestinian people are the 
only ones who can choose their leaders.  At the same time, 
the King frankly and unapologetically defended Jordan's 
relations with Israel as good both for Jordan and the 
Palestinians.  He also indirectly criticized Palestinian 
leaders, saying "the Palestinian leadership (must) shoulder 
its responsibilities before its people, the Arab nation, and 
the world."  The King devoted little time in his speech to 
Iraq (less than a minute of his 25 minute remarks), calling 
"for resolving the Iraqi issue through dialogue with the 
United Nations rather than the threat of force or the use of 
force...however, at the end of the day, it is the Iraqi 
leadership which has to make its decision.  It will be 
responsible for this decision before its people, its nation, 
and the world at large."  At the end of the speech, the King 
focused on Jordan's domestic politics and, to the surprise of 
no one, announced that legislative elections would be pushed 
back until Spring so the elections would not be influenced by 
regional events. 
 
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JORDANIANS UNDERWHELMED 
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3. (C) A sampling of Embassy contacts indicates that most 
Jordanians heard little new in the King's speech.  Most 
contacts believed the King did not waver from previous 
positions on the Palestinian issue.  An East Bank businessman 
believed much of the King's rhetoric on the Palestinian issue 
was in response to the accusations make on the Al-Jazeera 
program, "Opposite Direction" (see Ref B).  The contact 
opined that the King's emphasis on Jordanian solidarity with 
the Palestinian people was intended to counter accusations 
made on the show that King Hussein had betrayed the 
Palestinian cause.   Another East Bank contact who was 
formerly a member of the Muslim Brotherhood believed the 
speech's emphatic rejection of a "Jordanian option" for the 
Palestinians signaled a change in Jordanian policy--away from 
considering the Palestinian cause an internal issue.  "The 
King seemed to be saying that the Palestinian cause is a 
regional issue not a domestic one." 
 
4. (C) In contrast to the media blitz of the last month, the 
King said relatively little about Iraq and few contacts noted 
the Iraqi aspect of his speech.  However, one East Bank 
contact said that he thought the speech was "straightforward, 
even bold, in putting the responsibility on the Iraqi 
leadership." 
 
5. (C) At the end of the speech, the King made the 
announcement that he had been telegraphing for weeks -- that 
Parliamentary elections would be postponed until Spring.  The 
King argued that elections should be postponed so that "these 
elections be free and fair and far from the influence of the 
conditions facing the region".  Reaction to the postponement 
among our contacts has split along East Bank-West Bank lines. 
 East Bankers generally favored the postponement, while 
Palestinians were critical, but many agreed that elections 
are likely to be delayed further, at least until next Fall. 
Former Prime Minister Tahir al-Masri told Poloff that the 
issue of elections spoiled the entire speech.  Al-Masri said 
that the Palestinian issue will delay elections now, and 
confidently predicted that "the U.S. invasion of Iraq will 
force a delay again in the Spring."  The Islamic Action Front 
(IAF) issued a public statement calling the postponement 
"unconstitutional" and added that "postponements will open 
the way for more postponements." 
 
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TIMING OF SPEECH: LONG OVERDUE 
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6. (C)  While the King's rhetorical skills and command of 
formal Arabic continue to improve, many Jordanians believe 
the King should address his people more frequently, in light 
of all the difficult issues facing Jordan.  One intellectual 
told Polfsn that "the speech was part of the King's 
checklist: socks, pants, speech, raincoat, etc...he zipped 
his suitcase and off he went--people didn't even know he was 
in town, let alone that he had a speech to give!"  One East 
Bank contact said that the King should have delivered the 
speech a long time ago. 
 
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COMMENT 
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7. (C) The King's address was an attempt to reassure 
Jordanians that he understands their frustrations and 
concerns.  The King's clear statements that the Palestinian 
and Iraqi leaderships bear ultimate responsibility for the 
fate of their peoples -- a sentiment rarely heard here amid 
speculation of U.S.-led conspiracies -- are welcome.  The 
language on Iraq was much more nuanced than the King's 
remarks to the British press three weeks ago.  Senior 
officials have told the Ambassador that this speech was the 
first step in repositioning the GOJ's position on Iraq.  He 
was told that the public line would slowly move the focus to 
Iraq's responsbilities under UN resolutions. 
 
8. (C) The postponement of elections was no surprise -- the 
King and government have been telegraphing this punch for 
several months.  The security arguments proved paramount. 
However, on elections as on other human rights issues, we 
believe we should continue to press the Jordanians to open 
the political system as they have liberalized the economic 
system over the last three years. 
GNEHM