US embassy cable - 05DJIBOUTI615

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 000615 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF A/S CONSTANCE NEWMAN AND AF DAS DON YAMAMOTO 
NSC FOR AFRICA DIRECTOR DR. CINDY COURVILLE 
STATE ALSO PASS USAID 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, SCUL, EAID, PHUM, DJ 
SUBJECT: DJIBOUTI'S FOREIGN MINISTER ON PLANS FOR 
DEMOCRATIC REFORM 
 
REF: A. DJIBOUTI 565 
     B. DJIBOUTI 282 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR MARGUERITA D. RAGSDALE. 
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Djibouti's Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali 
Yousuf sees his government moving forward decisively to 
improve democratization and governance.  Regional elections, 
to be held late in 2005, will be the first priority action 
and will be organized around a new system of proportional 
representation.  If all goes well, the same system will be 
implemented in 2008 parliamentary elections.  These two 
actions will complement ongoing reform efforts at the 
judicial, economic, and social levels.  An enhanced role for 
women in decisionmaking continues as a key cornerstone.  As 
for the opposition, it will likely decline the government's 
extended hand for dialogue as it lacks both a political plan 
for Djibouti's future and, more importantly, a constituency, 
according to the Minister. End Summary. 
 
2.  (C) During her 6/21 meeting on U.N. reform and other 
matters with Minister of Foreign Affairs Mahmoud Ali Yousuf 
(reported septels), Ambassador asked the Minister for an 
update on Djibouti's plans for improved democratization and 
governance.  She noted that President Guelleh's re-election 
for a second mandate had set the stage for further progress 
in the areas she had previously discussed with the Minister. 
(see ref B).  In addition, the President had released a 
well-publicized "feuille de route" (roadmap) for concrete 
ministerial action in his second term. (see ref A) 
 
3. (C) Mahmoud responded that Djibouti was moving forward on 
democratization and good governance.  The priority by 
December 2005 will be to organize regional elections under a 
new representative system.  During last local elections 
(parliamentary, 2003), representation was based on majority 
party lists.  For regional elections, Djibouti will shift to 
proportional representation.  The Minister said this means 
representatives in the regional councils may now come from 
opposition parties. If, for example, an opposition party 
receives 20 percent of votes in a region, that party will 
receive 20 percent of seats for that region. 
 
4. (C) Regional elections will be a test for Djibouti's 
second priority, the Minister continued, which will be 
February 2008 parliamentary elections.  If results of the 
2005 regional elections are successful, Djibouti will apply 
the same system to parliamentary representation and seek, at 
the same time, greater decentralization. 
 
5. (C) Mahmoud described these phases as in line with 
principles of good governance.  In addition, reforms Djibouti 
is already undertaking at the judicial, economic, and social 
levels will continue.  He emphasized in particular Djibouti's 
efforts to bring more women into government at the 
decisionmaking level evidenced by the recent appointment of 
the first woman to the critical position of Minister of 
Cooperation in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 
 
6. (C) As for the "feuille de route" outlined by President 
Guelleh, the Minister said the President genuinely intends to 
move forward in every section of this general document. 
Guelleh will lead the roadmap, monitor every segment, and see 
it completed in this, his last mandate. 
 
7. (C) On the opposition, Mahmoud commented that it will need 
to review and re-think its role in Djibouti's political 
process.  The current government wants to see a political 
process that is peaceful and profitable to all.  It does not 
want instability.  He asked, rhetorically, whether the 
opposition was genuinely capable of change and stated 
emphatically that they were not.  He told Ambassador that he 
believed the opposition would refuse to participate in the 
government's most recent call for dialogue, conveyed through 
a letter from the Minister of Interior to all opposition 
parties.  According to Mahmoud, the opposition in Djibouti is 
not prepared to participate because it has no political plan 
and because it has no constituency.  He said the government 
wishes to engage the opposition on ways to move Djibouti 
forward on next elections, for example.  Mahmoud lamented 
that as the old opposition leaders pass away, the new 
leaders, themselves aged, appear increasingly unwilling to 
accept new ideas and unwilling to step aside to permit the 
ideas of those younger to flourish. 
 
8. (C) Comment: The political will may be present in Djibouti 
but the wheels of action turn slowly in this 
economically-challenged nation.  In addition, Djibouti's 
assistance needs may ultimately overshadow reform efforts. 
Already, Ambassador has been advised that the Minister of 
Interior is seeking an early meeting to request U.S. targeted 
assistance for implementation of upcoming regional elections 
and sustentation of regional councils.  As for Djibouti's 
opposition, Mahmoud has a point.  Septel will discuss 
Ambassador's recent meeting with opposition figures, who have 
little hint of their responsibilities (not just rights) in a 
true democracy.  End comment. 
RAGSDALE