US embassy cable - 05SOFIA1134

UNCLAS  SOFIA 001134 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, BU 
SUBJECT: BULGARIAN SOCIALISTS WIN: COALITION TALKS BEGIN; EXTREMIST 
GROUP ENTERS PARLIAMENT 
 
Ref: (A) SOFIA 808, (B) SOFIA 931, (C) SOFIA 1020, (D) SOFIA 1036, 
(E) SOFIA 1114 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) won the June 
25 general elections, though by a smaller margin than expected, and 
face tough coalition talks on the formation of the government. 
Official results show seven parties, including extreme nationalist 
group "Ataka", passed the four percent threshold needed to enter 
parliament.  This is the most fragmented vote in post-communist 
elections, marked also by the lowest voter turnout (60 percent). 
Results gave the BSP 31.18 percent of the vote, ahead of PM Simeon 
Saxe-Coburg's party with 19.91 percent.  The ethnic Turkish 
Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) placed third with 12.45 
percent, its best result ever.  In the biggest surprise of the 
election, Ataka, which saw a surge in their support in the last 
weeks, won 8.21 percent of the vote.  BSP Chairman Sergei Stanishev 
appealed for broad parliamentary support for a Socialist-led 
government as Bulgaria is in the last stretch to join the EU in 
2007, but stressed the BSP will not join forces with Ataka.  The 
group's rise is disturbing news for ethnically tolerant Bulgaria, 
which has not had an extreme nationalist group in parliament in 
post-communist times.  The OSCE assessment mission found a few 
irregularities on election day, but not significant enough to 
affect the final outcome.  END SUMMARY 
 
SOCIALISTS FACE COMPLICATED COALITION TALKS 
 
2. (SBU) As the biggest group in parliament, the Socialists will 
receive the first mandate from the President to form a government. 
With 98 percent of the vote counted, the Central Electoral 
Commission (CEC) gave the BSP 31.18 percent of the vote, which 
translates into 87 seats in the 240-seat parliament.  This forces 
the BSP to seek support from Simeon's party and/or the ethnic 
Turkish MRF (Ref. A, C, E).  Stanishev and other senior BSP 
officials told us they viewed a coalition with the ex-king's party 
as a stable option but expected tough coalition talks given 
Simeon's aspirations to retain the PM's post.  The 39-year-old 
leader, who is also the party's PM nominee, said the BSP will 
insist on the PM post.  MRF has already said it would join forces 
with the BSP, but the Socialists and MRF together fall short of a 
majority.  The Socialists would need to include a third party in 
the coalition, or rely on support by individual NMSS or other MPs. 
Another numerically possible -- but unstable and far less likely 
-- coalition includes all five centrist and center-right groups, 
excluding Ataka and BSP. 
 
SIMEON: DOWN BUT NOT OUT 
 
3. (SBU) The NMSS received 19.91 percent of the vote, far below the 
43 percent it won four years ago in a landslide victory.  The NMSS 
is likely to have only 53 seats.  Simeon, Europe's first monarch to 
regain power as PM, said he had no plans to return to Madrid, his 
previous home in exile.  He said his party would take part in talks 
on the formation of the government.  In contrast with his pre- 
election statements, Simeon did not specifically rule out a 
coalition with the BSP during an election night press conference 
(Ref. B, C, E). 
 
EXTREMIST GROUP SURGES INTO PARLIAMENT 
 
4. (SBU) In the biggest surprise of the election, the extreme 
nationalist group Ataka got 8.7 percent of the vote, which should 
translate into 22 seats, and ranked fourth ahead of the largest 
center-right group UDF.  A coalition of five marginal nationalist 
groups, Ataka tapped into prejudice against the country's Roma and 
Turkish populations, successfully exploiting negative feelings 
among ethnic Bulgarians and taking advantage of recent incidents 
involving the Roma minority.  The group, which campaigned under the 
motto "Let's Give Bulgaria Back to Bulgarians", opposes membership 
in the EU and NATO, is anti-Turkish and seeks closer ties with 
Orthodox Slav nations.  Ataka, which brands all major parties as 
"political mafia", won the protest vote of extreme leftists and 
rightists who are frustrated with the status quo political leaders, 
as well as people living on the margins of society. The group's 
leader, Volen Siderov, a well-known journalist, is openly anti- 
Semitic and anti-U.S. (Ref. E).  Some of Ataka's support appears to 
have come from the unreformed element of the BSP voters.  Ataka's 
strong showing is an especially unfortunate outcome considering 
Bulgaria's solid record for ethnic tolerance. 
 
 
BEST-EVER SHOWING FOR THE ETHNIC TURKS 
 
5. (SBU) Another surprise of the vote is the strong third place 
showing of the MRF, a junior coalition partner in the current 
government. The MRF, which has almost a complete monopoly over the 
ethnic Turkish vote, fully mobilized its voters, both in Bulgaria 
and in Turkey.  A possible BSP-NMSS coalition could, however, leave 
the MRF out of the next government. 
 
FRAGMENTATION ON THE RIGHT 
 
FORMING THE NEW GOVERNMENT 
 
7. (U) Final official results are expected by Wednesday when all 
parties which passed the four percent threshold are assigned a 
number of seats in the 240-seat unicameral parliament.  The 
President must convene the newly elected MPs for the first session 
of parliament within a month of the election. President Purvanov 
said, however, he would convene parliament at an earlier date.  At 
an unspecified time, after political consultations are conducted, 
the President tasks the PM-designate of the largest parliamentary 
group to form a government.  Stanishev said the BSP would move 
quickly, adding that the government might be formed as early as 
July 21.  This scenario, however, may be overly optimistic and 
lengthy consultations are possible as the BSP searches for 
coalition partners.  The incumbent government operates on a lame- 
duck basis until its successor is approved by the newly elected 
parliament. 
 
8. (U) If parliament fails to approve the government line-up, or 
the PM-designate fails to propose a cabinet within seven days of 
being asked, the mandate goes to the second largest parliamentary 
group.  If the second party fails to form a government, the 
President, at his discretion, tasks any of the other parliamentary 
groups to nominate a PM.  Only if the third parliamentary group's 
PM-designate fails to form a government does the President appoint 
a caretaker PM and government, dissolve parliament and schedule new 
elections (Ref. D). This scenario, however, seems unlikely. 
 
9. (SBU) COMMENT: The Socialist victory - although less than 
expected - makes it likely they will organize the next government. 
However, prolonged horse-trading will ultimately decide whether the 
NMSS and/or other party join the BSP, and who will take the PM 
post.  Senior leaders in both the BSP and the NMSS see a coalition 
as the most stable and most appealing for the EU accession process. 
The key factor in coalition negotiations will be the issue of the 
PM's job and Simeon's willingness to step aside.  At this point, 
the Socialists feel they won the election and are unwilling to 
leave Simeon in place.  The strength of Simeon's desire to remain 
as PM is not known. Both the BSP and Simeon's party have pledged 
not to let Ataka into government, but other than that, all bets are 
off.  There has been no post-election mention of Iraq by any party. 
Despite campaign statements to the contrary, Stanishev has told the 
Ambassador that changing the timeline for withdrawal from Iraq will 
not be an early priority for the Socialists. END COMMENT 
 
TABLE: Distribution of seats in the new parliament - Central 
Electoral Commission data based on 98 percent of the vote counted. 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
Party                                               MP seats 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP)                        87 
National Movement for Simeon II (NMSS)                 53 
Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF)                 28 
Ataka                                                  22 
Union of Democratic Forces (UDF)                       20 
Democrats for Strong Bulgaria (Kostov's group DSB)     16 
Bulgarian National Union (Sofianski's coalition BNU)   14 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
Majority in the 240-seat parliament is 121 MPs