US embassy cable - 05KINSHASA1042

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001042 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/24/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, ASEC, CG 
SUBJECT: KINSHASA TENSE AS JUNE 30 APPROACHES 
 
 
Classified By: DCM TDougherty for reasons 1.4 b/d. 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  Though tensions are rising in Kinshasa and 
elsewhere in the country in anticipation of June 30, the 
security situation remains generally calm.  Some opposition 
leaders, most particularly UDPS leader Etienne Tshisekedi, 
continue to call for the end of the transitional government 
on June 30, but there has been no noticeable groundswell of 
popular support.  That said, the rumor mill is on full 
throttle, police presence has markedly increased, and 
residents are keeping a close eye on developments.  End 
summary. 
 
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Rumor Mill Working Overtime 
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2. (SBU) The past month has been marked by constant rumors, 
all of which have turned out to be unsubstantiated.   There 
have been reports of shipments of machetes being delivered 
from Brazzaville and elsewhere, of several thousands of 
Angolans (and/or other foreign) soldiers on the streets, of 
collusion by foreign governments, and of an impending 
declaration of martial law.  Beginning more than a week ago, 
rumors of curfews were widely circulated to the point where 
on June 15 the Governor of Kinshasa had to have a message 
broadcast on television and radio which in essence said: 
"Yes, we have no curfew." 
 
3. (C) Expatriates have helped fan rumors.  Great importance 
was attributed to the difficulty in getting airline 
reservations to Europe during the second half of June;  while 
true, the end of the school year always results in families 
heading to Europe and elsewhere for summer vacations, though 
this year's exodus is clearly larger than normal.  Numerous 
international and multinational companies began advising 
their Kinshasa offices as early as May to have family members 
and non-essential personnel out of the country by mid-June. 
At least one U.N. agency in Kinshasa ominously advised its 
employees to stockpile food, stay off the streets, and 
prepare to evacuate.  All of this contributed to what both 
Congolese and international residents refer to as the "June 
30 psychosis." 
 
4. (C)  There is justified fear that significant violence 
could erupt elsewhere, particularly in the UDPS stronghold of 
the Kasais.  Recent violence in Mbuji Mayi, for example, is 
seen by many as a harbinger of worse things to come.  Though 
geographically distant from Kinshasa, televised images of 
fighting from Mbuji Mayi or Kanaga, for example, could easily 
incite UDPS supporters in the capital to take to the streets. 
 Events in the Kasais, however, do not automatically carry 
the same political consequences as those in Kinshasa. 
 
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Increased Police and Military Presence 
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5. (SBU) Police units have been deployed throughout the city, 
especially during the night, and their presence has been 
noted by Kinshasa residents.  Likewise, there has been a 
proliferation of military checkpoints.  There has been a 
decrease in activity on the streets at night due to the 
police and military presence (and shakedowns of citizens by 
soldiers), increased crime in the city over the past months, 
and the end of the school year. 
 
6. (C) The Minister of Interior advised political counselor 
that units were being deployed throughout Kinshasa with the 
express purpose of ensuring that groups of ten or more not 
being allowed to congregate.  He added that foreigners were 
not being targeted, but implied that it would be a good idea 
to stay close to home. 
 
7. (C) The presence of the police is potentially a mixed 
blessing.  While they can play a constructive role in 
maintaining order, if they are not paid in the coming days 
they could be a destabilizing force.  Senior government 
officials have told us that police will be paid, with June 25 
being the date most frequently mentioned.  If adequate 
payments are not made, however, the situation could become 
explosive. 
 
8. (C) Reports are re-surfacing that the military intends to 
have a major "show of force" before June 30.  This would 
involve troops marching in formation in Kinshasa, with the 
possibility of boats on the Congo River and helicopters also 
being deployed.  We, along with other Western missions, have 
told ministers and other senior officials that such a plan is 
ill-advised.  The possibility of an incident rapidly spinning 
out of control is very real, particularly since the Congolese 
military has a dismal track record regarding crowd control. 
 
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Some Encouraging Signs 
---------------------- 
 
9. (SBU) Parliament approved the extension of the transition 
on June 17 (without any resulting violent reactions), an 
electoral calendar has been promulgated, and voter 
registration began successfully in Kinshasa on June 20. 
These developments have been widely publicized, and seem to 
be generally well understood by residents of the capital.  In 
Catholic and Protestant churches on June 19, priests and 
ministers advised their congregations to stay peaceful.  A 
statement from the Catholic Bishops' Conference on June 22, 
while containing some mixed messages, called on the Congolese 
to reject violence.  ROC President Sassou flew from 
Brazzaville to Kinshasa today, and we understand he is 
seeking to speak with Tshisekedi as part of his program. 
Significantly, markets and stores are operating normally and 
people are going about their daily business as usual. 
 
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Comment 
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10. (C) If police and soldiers are paid this weekend, the 
"June 30 psychosis" may anti-climatically turn out to be the 
Congolese equivalent of the "Year 2000" scare.  If they are 
not paid, however, trouble can be expected.  One way or the 
other, there are spoilers who have every intention of 
creating mayhem centered on June 30.  Barring a breakdown in 
military and police discipline, and barring incidents that 
spin quickly out of control, the chances of neutralizing such 
spoilers are reasonably good.  End comment. 
MEECE